Weekend Reflections: Falcons win with mature performance by Michael Penix Jr.

There was nothing extravagant about how Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. played against the 49ers on Sunday. That’s what made it so impressive.

The 49ers weren’t going to let Penix make big plays, so he just made the right ones. He was smart, patient and efficient during the 29-20 Falcons victory at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Penix passed for 213 yards on 34 attempts with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. He was effective despite an inefficient running game. Penix got the best of a defense that forced him to work down the field in short chunks.

Per Pro Football Focus, Penix attempted just one pass longer than 20 yards. His average depth of target was just 5.5 yards and he had 3.1 air yards per completion.

“We knew with this defense, they don’t really give up too many explosives,” Penix said. “They do a good job with that. So, for us, I just had to be smart and find my checkdowns, find the guys that’s open and obviously deliver a good ball for them.

“So, that’s all it was about. Just making sure we didn’t make any mistakes. Just go out there and play our brand of football.”

It was a big offensive turnaround for the Falcons after the Ravens and Bears shut them down in back-to-back games. It was the unit’s best performance of the season considering the opponent.

Credit coach Kevin Stefanski, play caller Tommy Rees and the rest of the offensive staff for coming up with a good plan. Credit Penix for executing it nearly flawlessly.

Some young quarterbacks struggle with patiently moving the offense down the field. Penix pulled it off against one of the league’s best defenses.

“I know he’s a young player in terms of starts in this league, I get that part. But we trust him,” Stefanski said.

Georgia Tech’s defense is below Power Four standards

There are 67 teams in the Power Four conferences. Notre Dame makes 68 major college teams. Georgia Tech’s defense ranks 95th in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s opponent-adjusted SP+ efficiency formula.

According to SP+, there are 31 nonmajor football teams playing better defense than Georgia Tech of the ACC. If you don’t believe those numbers tell the true story, then you haven’t watched the Yellow Jackets try to stop anybody.

Boston College came to town with the ACC’s second-worst scoring offense. Football Championship Subdivision Maine held BC to 22 points and 359 yards in Week 3 this season.

The Golden Eagles went home with a 49-27 victory over Tech. They scored 42 offensive points and gained 500 total yards. BC’s 399 yards rushing were tied for the third-most ever allowed by Tech.

Those numbers were bad enough for Tech. Making it worse was what BC quarterback Mason McKenzie told reporters after the game.

“We just kept calling the same couple of plays over and over,” McKenzie said. “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.”

The Jackets have injuries along the defensive line. That doesn’t explain how they got gashed over and over by an opponent not known for running the ball. BC’s previous season high for rushing yards against FBS teams was 165.

The Eagles gained the most rushing yards by a Jackets opponent since Clemson had 411 in 2019. That was the first season of the ill-fated Geoff Collins era after coach Paul Johnson retired. The Jackets were rebuilding.

This was supposed to be a good year for Tech. It’s become a lost season in large part because of a defense that probably is the worst in major college football.

“When guys are consistently not in place to make a play, that’s 100% on myself as coach,” Tech coach Brent Key said.

SEC could feel CFP squeeze

ESPN writer Heather Dinich’s latest projection of the 12-team College Football Field includes five SEC teams: Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. Dinich writes that her forecast is based on “historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol.”

Maybe that prediction ends up being right, but I don’t see how the SEC gets five teams in the field. That’s based on math.

It’s going to be hard for the SEC to finish the year with more than two teams with less than three losses because so many of the CFP contenders still must play one another.

There are no undefeated teams in the SEC. Georgia and Kentucky are the only one-loss teams left after Tennessee and Ole Miss lost Saturday. There are seven two-loss teams: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Missouri and Texas.

LSU still must play Alabama, Texas and Tennessee. Texas has Mizzou on its schedule in addition to LSU. Tennessee will play Kentucky in addition to LSU. Missouri will play Georgia and Kentucky in addition to Texas.

It’s also plausible that Kentucky finishes with three losses. The Wildcats finish with games at Tennessee, vs. Florida, at Missouri and vs. Louisville. ESPN’s College Football Power Index gives the Wildcats a 52% chance of making the CFP.

It’s easy to imagine the CFP committee putting one three-loss SEC team in the field. Alabama became the first three-loss team to make the 12-team field last season.

It’s harder to see the committee making more than one exception for a three-loss SEC team, even with TV money riding on it.

My Weekend Predictions were 5-6-1

That makes three losing records in a row picking games against the spread. I was above water after college football Saturday despite unwisely backing Georgia Tech, but I was sunk by a 1-3 mark on NFL Sunday.