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Atlanta Falcons

Weekend Reflections: Stefanski has more, doing less with Falcons offense

Also: Dream get little from bench in Finals Game 1, and it’s too early to make sense of SEC chaos.
Kevin Stefanski is off to a 2-4 start in his first season with the Falcons. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)
Kevin Stefanski is off to a 2-4 start in his first season with the Falcons. (Miguel Martinez/AJC)
Michael Cunningham
1 hour ago

Kevin Stefanski lost 11 more games than he won as Browns coach and earned one playoff victory over seven years. The selling point for him to fare better with the Falcons: He’s a good offensive coach who just needed better offensive players.

Stefanski inherited plenty of them with the Falcons. The team believed that, with Stefanski’s guidance, they would finally unlock their underachieving offense. That plan got a late start because Cooper Rush was the starting quarterback for the first two games.

Michael Penix Jr. has been quarterback for the past four games, and the results aren’t encouraging. Stefanski is doing less with more so far.

His offense was bad during the Week 5 loss to the Ravens. It was even worse during the 31-23 loss to the Bears on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Falcons (2-4) made offense look easy against the Packers and Saints. Those teams are middling defensively. The Falcons made scoring look painful against the Ravens and Bears (outside of garbage time). Those teams are good defensively.

Obviously, it’s harder to score against better defenses. But the Falcons are supposed to be the kind of team that makes things hard even for stout defenses. Stefanski is supposed to be the kind of coach who helps them do it.

Penix’s return gave the Falcons a jolt. They scored 35 points over nine full possessions against the Packers and 45 points over nine possessions against the Saints. The Falcons seemed to be forming an offensive identity.

They ran over the Packers with Bijan Robinson and good blocking by the offensive line. The Falcons did the same thing against the Saints while sprinkling in more misdirection.

But a similar plan didn’t work against the Ravens. Not much of anything worked for the Falcons’ offense against the Bears until coach Ben Johnson prematurely sat on his 31-7 lead early in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons scored 16 points over 10 full possessions against the Ravens. They scored seven points over eight against the Bears before garbage time.

That’s pitiful production for a team with so much offensive talent.

Among the top 10 salary cap salaries on the team’s ledger, seven are for offensive players. Five offensive starters were drafted early in the first round by the Falcons: Penix (eighth overall), Bijan Robinson (eighth), Drake London (eighth), Kyle Pitts Sr. (fourth) and Chris Lindstrom (14th).

Defensively, the Falcons haven’t been great. The unit has been good enough most of the time. Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is getting more out of what he’s got than Stefanski and his play-calling protege, Tommy Rees, are doing with the other side of the ball.

The Falcons are playing respectable defense with a cast of relatively low-priced and later-drafted players. Ulbrich’s group is missing three players the Falcons drafted in the first round: Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr. and AJ Terrell.

Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen schooled the Falcons. They had no clue how to block Chicago’s blitzes. They constantly faced poor down-and-distance situations. Rees got away from feeding Robinson before time and score dictated more passes.

The Bears did what they could to help out the Falcons.

Chicago piled up 11 penalties for 118 yards through three quarters. The Falcons had 100 yards of offense and a 28-7 deficit at that point. The Bears lost a fumble while leading 31-15 and gave up a touchdown before restoring order.

Stefanski and Rees need to come up with a better plan fast.

The Falcons have four games before the bye week. Three of those opponents entered this weekend ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in defensive expected points added (a measure of the value of each play): 49ers, Bucs and Chiefs. The Bengals ranked 13th.

We’ll see if Stefanski can get more out of the better players he inherited when they face stout defenses.

Dream get little from bench

Lack of production by bench players was a weakness for the Atlanta Dream during the regular season. That matters less when the rotation tightens in the playoffs, but they’ll need something from their reserves to beat the Valkyries in the best-of-seven WNBA Finals.

They got little from those players while losing Game 1 in San Francisco on Saturday. That stood out against the Valkyries, who have one of the league’s deepest benches.

Dream reserves DeWanna Bonner and Isobel Borlase both played 14 minutes off the bench. They combined for six points, three rebounds, one block and no steals.

Four Valkyries players played 14 minutes or more off the bench. They combined for 20 points, 17 rebounds, three blocks and four steals.

Valkyries reserves Kaila Charles, Tiffany Hayes, and Laeticia Amihere were on floor when they started their comeback from seven points down with 9:07 to play. Hayes sank a 3-pointer and blocked Angel Reese’s shot before passing ahead for a fast-break layup. Charles later secured the rebound that led to game-sealing free throws by Gabby Williams.

The Valkyries have a bench edge over the Dream because of differences in roster construction and philosophy.

Dream starters led the league in average minutes played by starters (31.2) while the Valkyries finished last (24.1). The Dream ranked third in average points for starters (73.4) and 14th in bench points (17.9). The Valkyries ranked 15th in average points by starters (46.3) and first in bench points (35.9).

Those trends have carried over into the playoffs. The Dream might have the best starting five in the league. They aren’t likely to win the bench battle against Golden State, but they need more than they got from their reserves in Game 1.

My Weekend Predictions were 4-6-1

I picked two heavy favorites in college football: Georgia and Texas. Both teams lost straight up at home. I picked two CFB underdogs, BYU and Tennessee. Both teams won straight up at home.

I went to bed Saturday night thinking that, next week, I should do what my heart desires and pick more underdogs. Then all three of my NFL ‘dog picks lost handily, including the Falcons.

Like the Bulldogs, I was left with no excuses for my performance.

Three quick thoughts

  1. There are no undefeated teams left in the SEC and only four one-loss teams. It will take some time to sort out if the league is really that deep or the best teams aren’t as great as they seem. The SEC’s top six have played just three games vs. nonconference Power 4 opponents (Ole Miss beat Louisville, and Tennessee and Alabama both beat Florida State). Texas made a statement by beating Ohio State but now has back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida.
  2. Georgia Tech was supposed to contend for an ACC title. Now, the Yellow Jackets are just hoping for bowl eligibility — and even that looks like a long shot. They followed their encouraging victory over Duke with a feeble loss at Virginia Tech on Saturday. Offensive regression was inevitable for Tech with Haynes King’s departure. The defensive drop-off has been just as large with Brent Key’s fifth coordinator since the start of the 2023 season, Blake Gideon.
  3. The lead paragraph of this ESPN story makes it clear who’s calling the shots: “The College Football Playoff has reached a ‘handshake agreement’ with ESPN to broadcast a 24-team playoff beginning in the 2027 season, sources told ESPN on Friday.” ESPN gets more inventory, but the product will be watered down. Remember: Half the first eight games of the 12-team CFP had scoring margins of 17 points or more, and only two had a one-score margin.

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