Weekend Predictions: Fading Falcons are underdogs at home again

At least the Falcons had Cooper Rush to use as a scapegoat. Weekend Predictions has no one else to blame.

Back-to-back losing weeks have everyone — me, most of all — questioning whether the improvement was real. My picks against the spread are taking on water. I’m still above the surface for the season, but I’m sending out an S.O.S.

Except I’m looking for a clue, not love. Disco is dead and so is my confidence.

49ers (-2½) at Falcons

This ninersnation.com report about 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s Week 6 play-calling gave me flashbacks: “The 49ers were cruising through three quarters, as they had scored on four of their six drives, while sustaining a couple of long possessions. However, in the fourth quarter, their defense was on the field for most of the quarter as the offense went three-and-out on three straight possessions.”

It was a happier ending for the 49ers. They held on to beat Dan Quinn’s Commanders 23-17 after leading 23-3. That was an off game for San Francisco’s offense. The defense has been nearly as good. It seems to me the 49ers should be favored by a touchdown against the Falcons, which, given my recent results, makes me feel nervous about picking them to cover.

Boston College (+4½) at Georgia Tech

Boston College’s Bill O’Brien is returning to coach on the Flats for the first time since he called the offensive plays for George O’Leary’s Georgia Tech teams. “(Georgia Tech) meant a lot to my career,” O’Brien told media. “I worked with some unbelievable players. It’s going to be a big, big challenge on the road in a very tough place to play.”

The Yellow Jackets have lost home games to Colorado (0-4 vs. Football Bowl Subdivision teams since) and Tennessee (45-24 winning margin is largest for Vols vs. Power 4 teams). After Tech’s loss at Virginia Tech last week, coach Brent Key, who played under O’Brien, said the Jackets must understand “anybody can beat anybody on Saturdays.” That shouldn’t have been hard to grasp since they were underdogs. I’m taking Tech to cover.

Georgia State (-2½) at Arkansas State

Arkansas State coach Butch Jones is impressed by Georgia State’s turnaround in Year 3 with coach Dell McGee. “I thought going into the season that they would be the most improved and they would compete for a championship,” Jones told media. “They’ve proven me right, unfortunately.” I’m sure Jones meant that’s because his team must play the Panthers (4-2, 1-1 Sun Belt), but it’s funnier to think he has some kind of unspoken grudge against them. I’m backing Arkansas State as the home underdog.

Liberty (-9½) at Kennesaw State

I’ve been intrigued by KSU running back Boogie Woods III because his name implies there are at least two other Boogies. It turns out Alan Woods III got his nickname as a child because he loved to dance to his grandmother’s favorite song, “Boogie Nights” by Heatwave. Young Woods had excellent taste because that song is a banger. Liberty is my pick.

Other college football games of interest

No. 6 Indiana (-7) at Michigan

After Indiana lost to Ohio State, Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti sounded like Kirby Smart. “In some ways, we beat ourselves, which is uncharacteristic of this football team,” Cignetti told reporters. Of course, there’s a big difference between blowing a chance to beat the fourth-ranked Buckeyes on the final play vs. never having the lead after halftime against unranked Auburn. I’m taking Michigan as the home ‘dog.

No. 7 Ole Miss (+3½) at No. 19 Texas

Steve Sarkisian is entertaining the question of benching QB Arch Manning after two losses in a row. Dan Wolken of Yahoo Sports notes that Sarkisian got testy with reporters two years when they asked if he’d bench Quinn Ewers for Manning. They’ll be asking about Sarkisian’s job security if he doesn’t win out. The Longhorns have burned me before, but I’m trusting them to cover.

No. 11 Tennessee (+2½) at South Carolina

Tennessee quarterback George MacIntyre could lose the starting position after beating Alabama last weekend. At least that’s what Vols coach Josh Heupel wants everybody to believe. Heupel wouldn’t say if MacIntyre or 5-star freshman Faizon Brandon would start against South Carolina. I don’t think the QB will matter much because the Gamecocks will struggle to score. I like the Vols with the points.

Texas A&M (+14) at No. 13 Alabama

Alabama gained just 201 yards during the 26-10 defeat at Tennessee last weekend, and that’s with the Vols playing soft defense during Bama’s 62-yard final drive. That performance left Dominic Giacobazzi of bamahammer.com pining for the “joyless murderball” days of Nick Saban. “It just seemed like the same old Alabama teams of the last few years,” Giacobazzi wrote about coach Kalen DeBoer’s 35-game tenure, which includes a playoff win. The Aggies will cover.

No. 18 LSU (-7½) at Auburn

LSU coach Lane Kiffin told media he was rooting for Auburn to beat Georgia last weekend: “‘Relief syndrome’ is a real thing.” That’s the idea that teams have a letdown after an emotional victory. I guess Kiffin is desperate for any perceived advantage after losing his first two SEC road games this season (Ole Miss and Kentucky). I need to see signs of the cocksure Kiffin before I pick LSU on the road again. Give me Auburn and the points.

Other NFL games of interest

Buccaneers (+3) at Panthers

The Bucs (1-5) will look to a risk-taking QB with a hand injury to save their season. Baker Mayfield practiced this week for the first time since dislocating his right thumb in Week 3. The Bucs were 0-3 when Mayfield’s thumb was fine and they are 1-2 without him. This is the week I stop doubting the Panthers and pick them, so I fully expect them to lose.

Steelers (-3½) at Saints

Saints owner Gayle Benson recently called the team’s results “unacceptable” while calling out GM Mickey Loomis and coach Kellen Moore. Loomis told reporters the “uncomfortable” situation can be a good thing. “We’re a young, developing team and, you know, we have to recognize that,” Loomis told media. That’s after the Saints were an old, declining team for five years. I’ll take the Saints and the points.

Rams (-3½) at Raiders

Kirk Cousins left the Falcons for the Raiders, but he can’t escape the possibility of a young QB taking his job. The Raiders have lost three games in a row with Cousins at QB. Rookie Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall draft pick, made his NFL debut during garbage time in the Week 6 loss to the Patriots. Everybody is waiting for the Rams (2-4) to get their act together. I say it happens this week. Rams cover.

Last week: 4-6-1. Season: 37-33-2.