Why the Braves will keep on winning despite the injuries

Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., the former MVP, was activated from the injured list Monday. So, of course catcher Drake Baldwin, one of MLB’s best hitters this year, was added to the IL the same day.

Braves catcher Sean Murphy played four games before going back on the IL. Budding ace Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow) only recently started tossing the ball. One-time strikeout king Spencer Strider has made just three starts.

All that might be enough to sink most teams. It has become background noise for the Braves.

They still have the best record in the National League (34-16) while losing one series (13-1-1) and scoring 98 more runs than they’ve allowed. The Braves are 12-6 in May and lead the NL East by nine games.

Braves players cycle on and off the IL. Reinforcements are called up from the minor leagues. They just keep on winning, anyway.

I don’t see that changing unless the injuries pile up way more than they have already. The Braves are better equipped than any MLB team to withstand the attrition because they have the deepest roster of them all.

Only one MLB team has more lineup length. No other team has more starting pitchers who are effective. Some key numbers back up those assertions.

Adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+) is a metric that accounts for different ballparks and other factors. Adjusted ERA (ERA+) does the same for pitchers. The league average for both OPS+ and ERA+ is 100.

Seven Braves hitters have produced an OPS of 100 or better. Only the Cubs (eight) have more.

Five Braves starting pitchers have an ERA+ of at least 100. Four other MLB teams have as many starters who clear that bar, and just one of them plays in the National League (Brewers).

The Braves have much better pitching than the Cubs. The Brewers can’t match their hitting. Only the Braves have plenty of both in the NL.

Everybody knows past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. That’s especially true in baseball, the game that often makes less sense than all others. The Braves still have 112 games to play.

But chances are high that they will have staying power through September. It’s not as if they are thriving because a bunch of guys are playing well above expectations.

The team’s good hitters are doing what they usually do, for the most part. It’s reasonable to expect some underperforming hitters to get going. The starting pitchers are performing as expected, with one notable exception being Bryce Elder, who has been even better.

Baldwin’s injury was the latest blow for the Braves. Just when it seemed as if they would finally have their full lineup, Baldwin (164 OPS+) suffered an oblique injury. That left the Braves with two light-hitting catchers on the active roster, Sandy León and Chadwick Tromp.

The Braves have enough good hitters to keep the offense humming while Baldwin heals. The other six hitters who are clearing the 100 OPS+ mark are Matt Olson, Dominic Smith, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Dubón and Acuña.

Olson’s 166 OPS+ is well above his career average (136 OPS+), but he’s had years like this before: 153 OPS+ with the Athletics in 2021 and 164 OPS+ with here in 2023. I suspect one reason Albies is hitting now (118 OPS+) like he did during his 2023 All-Star season (123 OPS+) is because he’s finally over wrist and hand injuries.

Harris is hitting well above his career norm (129 OPS+), but he produced like this from 2022-23 (124 OPS+). Dubón (100 OPS+) also is hitting above his career standard (87 OPS+). He had a 97 OPS+ with Houston in 2023 and said he adjusted his swing after studying video of his at-bats from that year.

Designated hitter Smith is the one big outlier among Braves hitters: 155 OPS+ this year vs. 101 OPS+ for his career. Smith’s production is likely to regress because he’s never hit close to this level while getting more than 200 plate appearances in a season (he’s already at 106).

If Smith’s production falls back to average, then Acuña and Austin Riley should more than make up the difference with a spike in the other direction.

Acuña is hitting poorly by his standard: 114 OPS+ compared with his career 141 OPS+. Riley is doing the same: 89 OPS+ vs. 119 OPS+. Both players are showing signs of getting on track.

Riley has a 123 OPS+ for May with five home runs. Acuña is 5-for-14 since returning from the IL. (He even showed some old spark on the base paths by taking an extra base with an athletic slide against the Marlins on Wednesday in Miami.)

The Braves have enough bats to win even when some good ones are out of the lineup or failing to meet expectations. They also have the arms to win games when runs are scarce.

Chris Sale (210 ERA+) is an ageless wonder. Strider is rounding into form after the rough season debut in Colorado. Grant Holmes (105 ERA+) is proving he’s a late bloomer, not a fluke. Martín Pérez (140 ERA+) usually performs well when asked to start.

It doesn’t seem possible that Elder can maintain his pace of 199 ERA+. But the right-hander appears he’s closer to the pitcher he was from 2022-23 than the poor form he showed the past two seasons. Elder apparently has figured some things out.

The Braves have more worries in the bullpen than the starting rotation. The top three relievers have been great: Raisel Iglesias, Robert Suarez and Dylan Lee. There’s a big drop off after that group.

Aaron Bummer was supposed to be a key piece in the bullpen. The Braves released him Monday. Rookie Didier Fuentes so far has done his part to help.