Playoffs? Are Cavs or Knicks better postseason matchup for Hawks?

Believe it or not, the Hawks are about to bypass NBA play-in purgatory and go directly to the Eastern Conference playoffs.

I know what you’re thinking. Making that declaration is risky, given the history of collapses by professional teams in this city. But I doubt the Hawks make me look silly on this one.

They’ve been on the comeback for five weeks while creating strong team vibes. The Hawks (44-33) have won 17 of their past 19 games, including impressive victories against Boston and Orlando this week, to surge to fifth place in the East.

The Hawks are 1½ games above the play-in cutoff with five games to go. They’ll win at Brooklyn (18-58) on Friday night, unless something goes terribly wrong. They then could lose three of their last four games and still be in good shape to end their play-in streak at four consecutive years.

So, it’s safe to say the Hawks will finish among the East’s top six teams to qualify for the playoffs after a three-year absence. The chances of them winning a series for the first time since 2021 will depend largely on the opponent.

If the playoffs began today, the fifth-seeded Hawks would face fourth-seeded Cleveland (48-29). It’s good for the Hawks that the playoffs don’t start now, because the third-place Knicks (49-28) are the better draw.

New York is at State Farm Arena on Monday. Beating the Knicks would be a two-for-one for the Hawks. They would increase their chances of making the playoffs and make it more likely that the Knicks are their first-round opponent.

The Knicks are ripe to be upset in the postseason. While the Hawks soared to an NBA-best 13-2 record in March, the Knicks ended the month with three ugly losses to finish 10-6.

New York’s defense, once elite, has regressed. Big man Karl-Anthony Towns is having the least-efficient scoring season of his career. His previously fruitful pick-and-roll partnership with Jalen Brunson has lost its juice.

The Knicks can be had. The Cavs look ready to roll. Cleveland is 16-6 since James Harden joined the lineup — including victories over first-place Detroit, New York and Western Conference contender Denver.

Finding advantages

In addition to their poor recent form, the Knicks are a better matchup for the Hawks than Cleveland.

The Knicks like to run. That’s good for the Hawks.

Atlanta is great at scoring in transition. New York is good at preventing opponents from running, but not good at stopping them once they get to the open court. That’s where Hawks All-Star Jalen Johnson shines.

The Knicks don’t finish well at the rim. That’s good for the Hawks.

Atlanta is bad at keeping opponents away from the basket. The Hawks should be fine with Knicks starters Brunson, Towns, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart falling into their habit of launching lots of long 2-pointers.

Towns can dominate in the paint when he feels like it. He tends to float to the perimeter. Also, Brunson doesn’t get Towns the ball often enough in good positions. No player in the league hogs the ball more than Brunson.

Brunson plays that style because he’s hard to stop when he gets to his spots. Hawks guards Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker would make it hard on him. They are a dynamic defensive duo on the perimeter.

The area in which Knicks could give the Hawks the most trouble is with put-back baskets. The Cavaliers could do the same.

With those things being equal, it’s better for the Hawks to face Towns and offensively limited forward OG Anunoby rather than rim-wrecking Cavs big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

The Knicks have a deeper bench than the Hawks. But that tends to matter less in the playoffs because playing rotations tighten. A best-of-seven series usually comes down to the starters and two or three key bench players.

The Cavs have a better starting group than the Hawks. Cleveland has two great guards, Harden and Donovan Mitchell, plus the two physical big men. But I’d take the top five Hawks over their Knicks counterparts.

And it wouldn’t be so bad if Hawks coach Quin Snyder needed to call on his bench more than expected.

Gabe Vincent is playoff-tested. Young players Zaccharie Risacher and Mo Gueye have found their niches. Jonathan Kuminga finally looks to be finding his rhythm.

There’s a small chance that, if the Hawks make the top six, then they would play the Celtics (51-25) instead of the Knicks or Cavs. That’s obviously the worst scenario for the Hawks.

Annoyingly, the Celtics remained a championship contender with superstar Jayson Tatum out, and he returned a month ago from Achilles surgery. They are a terrible matchup for the Hawks.

It’s much more likely that the Hawks would play the Cavaliers or Knicks in the first round. It’s better for them if it’s the Knicks. The Hawks can help make that happen by beating New York here on Monday.