How Georgia’s SEC title game status affects Bulldogs’ playoff scenarios
ATLANTA — Georgia football put stubborn rival Georgia Tech behind it with a 16-9 win and now waits to learn its postseason path.
The No. 4-ranked Bulldogs (11-1) need for Texas to beat Texas A&M in the teams’ 7:30 p.m. game in Austin or for Auburn to upset Alabama on Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium to play in the SEC championship next Saturday.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart, who has led UGA teams to appearances in seven of the past eight SEC title games — winning three of them, including last year’s — has made it clear he wants to hang another league banner.
This, even though ESPN projected UGA to have a 77% chance of keeping a top-four seed even without playing in the SEC title game — which would mean a first-round bye.
“I’m an SEC enthusiast, (and) I look at it as what do you do to win the SEC,” Smart said on 92.9 The Game last week. “It’s one of the top moments of your career, of your year.”
Georgia earned a first-round bye last season after winning the league title game before losing to Notre Dame, 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal.
The difference this year would be one less game and an extra week of rest, but Smart shrugged off that concept.
“I’d never agree it’s better (not to play in the SEC title game),” Smart said. “What about the experience you get from playing in that game? The pressure, the anxiety, yeah, banged up, sure, but there’s recovery time in there.”
Texas A&M is a 2.5-point favorite over Texas, and Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite over Auburn.
Here are Georgia’s CFP scenarios as of Friday evening.
Georgia CFP Scenario One
Georgia doesn’t play in SEC title game
Georgia could get a bye or host a first-round CFP game if it doesn’t play in the SEC title game, depending on if it finishes ranked in the top four of the final CFP rankings, which will be released on Dec. 7.
The most likely team to jump Georgia would be current No. 5-ranked and projected Big 12 champion Texas Tech (10-1).
The Red Raiders, with the benefit of a championship game against current projected Big 12 title game opponent BYU (ranked No. 11, and 10-1), could get a favorable bump from the committee.
The committee would note Texas Tech’s only defeat came to current No. 20 Arizona State in one of the two games the Red Raiders’ starting quarterback missed with injury.
There is a possibility in this scenario, however, that Georgia could remain ranked in the top four — and receive a bye, thus not hosting a first-round CFP game.
This would occur if the committee kept the Bulldogs ranked ahead of projected Big 12-winner Texas Tech — largely on the strength of UGA’s schedule and quality wins — even if the Red Raiders were to win out.
Of course, if Texas Tech lost at West Virginia as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday, that would derail the Red Raiders’ chances of passing UGA in the rankings, as would a Texas Tech loss in the Big 12 championship game to projected opponent BYU, a team it defeated earlier this season in Lubbock, 29-7.
Georgia CFP Scenario Two
Georgia plays in, and wins, SEC title game
If the Bulldogs win the SEC championship game, they would earn a top-four seed and get a first-round bye.
In this scenario, Georgia would most likely play in the Sugar Bowl at 8 p.m. on New Year’s Day in a CFP quarterfinal against a first-round winner. The Sugar Bowl gets the higher-ranked conference championship game winner from the SEC and Big 12.
Georgia CFP Scenario Three
Georgia plays in, loses in the SEC championship game
If UGA plays in and loses the SEC championship game, it’s more likely than not the Bulldogs would fall between No. 5 and No. 8 in the rankings and host a first-round playoff game.
This is especially true because the CFP selection committee has set a precedent that, barring an impactful injury to a key player or lopsided defeat, it will not drop a team playing in a conference championship game beneath a team that is not playing in its conference title game.
It seems unlikely an 11-2 Georgia would fall beneath the current one-loss teams ranked No. 6 and No. 7 (Oregon and Ole Miss, respectively), neither of which is currently projected to play in their respective conference championship games.
The Bulldogs’ head-to-head win over Ole Miss would likely limit UGA’s fall to No. 7, at worst.
Further, Georgia’s wins over Ole Miss and Texas would be likely to keep it ahead of No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2), which lost to both of those teams this season.
About the Author
Mike is in his 10th season covering SEC and Georgia athletics for AJC-DawgNation and has 25 years of CFB experience. Mike is a Heisman Trophy voter and former Football Writers President who was named the National FWAA Beat Writer of the Year in January, 2018.
