Weekend Predictions: Make it a sweep for Falcons, Georgia, Tech
Weekend Predictions has posted five winning weeks in seven picking games against the spread. That sounds good until you look closer at the numbers. I’m like a team with a decent record but a negative point differential.
I need a convincing victory to prove that I’m good. If the Falcons can do it, then I can do it, too.
Falcons (+2½) at 49ers
The headline at ninersnation.com might cause unpleasant flashbacks for Falcons fans: “Kyle Shanahan explains his ‘unfortunate mistake’ against the Bucs.” (No, it wasn’t as bad as that.) The 49ers had 10 men on the field when All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner suffered a season-ending injury. The buck stops with Shanahan, but he’s got people who are supposed to help with that kind of stuff.
The 49ers were just OK at stopping the run with Warner in the lineup. They are facing a big challenge this week without him. The Falcons have maybe the NFL’s best one-two punch at running back with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. They proved against the Bills that their defense is legit. The Falcons will win in the Bay Area with heavy doses of Bijan and blitzing.
No. 5 Ole Miss (+7½) at No. 9 Georgia
For some reason, a reporter asked Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin if he or Kirby Smart burns more calories during games. “I actually walked past the TV earlier and saw his presser, don’t think he’s burned too many calories,” Kiffin responded. Kiffin used to regularly deliver clever quips. Now he’s reduced to fat jokes.
Kiffin also called Smart the “best coach in college football now” because his teams win playing different styles and when facing a lot of adversity. Kiffin’s teams typically don’t do either of those things. He’s 0-5 against ranked SEC opponents on the road as Ole Miss coach, and only one of those games was close (29-26 vs. LSU in 2024). This one will be close, too. Bulldogs win, but Rebels cover the spread.
No. 12 Georgia Tech (+1½) at Duke
Brent Key told AJC sports columnist Ken Sugiura he’s “happy” at Georgia Tech. Key should be happier once he gets the inevitable pay bump that’s coming his way. Key has done a fine job for Tech. He’s also been good for my ego since I advocated for him to get the job. I’m occasionally right about some things.
The Yellow Jackets followed their uneven performance at Wake Forest with a no-drama victory over Virginia Tech. Now comes the hardest ACC game left on Tech’s schedule (Pitt is good, but the Panthers come here). The Blue Devils have a much better offense than any Tech has faced. It’s going to be a close game, and I think that favors the Jackets. They’re my pick to win.
Georgia State (+6½) at Georgia Southern
This game is known as the Georgia Grown Bowl because of a partnership between the schools and the state’s Department of Agriculture. My picks in Georgia State games have been nearly as bad as that name (“Georgia Grown Game” was right there). Georgia State leads the all-time series 6-5, but Georgia Southern won the past two meetings. I’ll take the home team and give the points, so look for the Panthers to pull off the upset.
Other college games of interest
Louisville (+13½) at No. 2 Miami
There’s a realistic chance that ex-Georgia quarterback Carson Beck wins the Heisman Trophy and a national championship. Doing that while beating Georgia in the playoff would be enough nightmare fuel to power Athens for a year. Louisville isn’t good enough to upset the ‘Canes, but the Cardinals will cover the spread.
No. 4 Texas A&M (-7½) at Arkansas
Arkansas interim coach Bobby Petrino is set to face his ex-employer. Petrino was Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator in 2022 under Jimbo Fisher. He wasn’t retained by Aggies coach Mike Elko, whose team has its highest ranking since Fisher was riding Jameis Winston’s coattails. I like Arkansas as the home underdog.
No. 11 Tennessee (+8½) at No. 6 Alabama
The mystique surrounding coach Kalen DeBoer’s black hoodie is the most fun thing in years about Alabama after years of “joyless murderball” and rat traps with Nick Saban. It’s too bad DeBoer acts like he’s halfway embarrassed by the attention. He should build a shrine for the hoodie considering the Crimson Tide are 13-2 when he wears it. Tennessee’s boom-or-bust defense will do enough for the Vols to cover the spread.
No. 16 Missouri (-1½) at Auburn
Auburn athletic director John Cohen told AL.com that firing coach Hugh Freeze is “not my expectation at this point.” That statement is so carefully crafted I had to check if Cohen was a lawyer before becoming a baseball coach. The AD may reach the point of canning Freeze if he loses a fourth consecutive game to drop his record to 14-18. Cohen might want to look over his shoulder, too, since he hired Freeze. Mizzou is my pick.
Other NFL games of interest
Buccaneers (+5½) at Lions
Mlive.com declares: “The Lions are about to face a Baker Mayfield they’ve never seen before.” That sounds vaguely menacing, especially if you read it in the movie trailer guy voice, like I did. The Bucs are an NFC-best 5-1, and I’m all-in on Mayfield. I like the Bucs to cover.
Panthers (-1½) at Jets
Carolina is 3-3 with victories over the Falcons and Cowboys. I can’t explain it, either. The Panthers 0-2 on the road. The Jets are 0-4 at home. New York played one of the worst offensive games I’ve ever seen in last week’s 13-11 loss to the Broncos. I’m still picking the Jets to cover because I refuse to believe the Panthers can win a road game against any opponent.
Saints (+4½) at Bears
I think the Saints are worse than the Jets even though they beat the Giants, who turned around and beat the Eagles (I can’t explain that one, either). The Saints lost both of their road games by large margins against two good teams, Seattle and Buffalo. The Bears have won three games in a row since getting embarrassed at Detroit. I’m picking them to cover.
Last week: 6-5. Season: 38-39
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