High School Sports Blog

Maxwell 2025 preseason summary

Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)

Credit: Jason Getz

Grayson running back Jayvian Allen (16, left) celebrates a rushing touchdown with wide receiver Jamal Haynes in the first half of the Class 7A state high school football final against Collins Hill Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2020, at Center Parc Stadium in Atlanta. (Jason Getz/For the AJC)
By Loren Maxwell
3 hours ago

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the 459 teams of the Georgia High School Association (GHSA), the Georgia Independent Athletic Association (GIAA), and the Georgia Association of Private & Parochial Schools (GAPPS) throughout the 2025 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

ExplorePreseason football rankings: 4 champions start No. 1

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.

A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of ---- of ---- total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within --.-- points and all game margins within --.-- points.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.22

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Buford0-0101.231Milton0-0103.31
2Carrollton0-0100.152Lee County0-096.07
3Grayson0-098.353Hughes0-094.86
4Colquitt County0-092.744Thomas County Central0-091.90
5Mill Creek0-092.695Coffee0-090.39
6North Cobb0-089.876Roswell0-089.42
7North Gwinnett0-089.517Rome0-087.22
8Douglas County0-089.018Gainesville0-087.14
9Collins Hill0-088.089Houston County0-085.13
10Walton0-087.2010Woodward Academy0-082.96
11Valdosta0-085.9011Sequoyah0-078.10
12Westlake0-084.4112Brunswick0-076.86
13Norcross0-083.9613River Ridge0-073.38
14Lowndes0-082.9614Creekview0-073.27
15Camden County0-082.9315Dutchtown0-072.85



AAAA AAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Marist0-092.831Jefferson0-083.09
2North Oconee0-089.102Calhoun0-080.94
3Creekside0-088.823Sandy Creek0-074.58
4Cartersville0-088.544Peach County0-074.13
5Benedictine0-086.775LaGrange0-074.02
6Blessed Trinity0-085.666Oconee County0-073.44
7Ware County0-085.547Stephenson0-071.23
8Warner Robins0-083.278Cedar Grove0-071.17
9Perry0-081.999Troup0-070.75
10Cedartown0-080.0610Cairo0-067.70
11Eastside0-078.0511Spalding0-066.79
12Starr's Mill0-077.1212Whitewater0-066.02
13Kell0-076.8013Bainbridge0-065.90
14Stockbridge0-075.9914Mary Persons0-065.70
15Cambridge0-075.6115Monroe Area0-065.51



AA A Divison I
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Carver (Columbus)0-078.221Toombs County0-073.83
2Pierce County0-076.952Thomasville0-072.74
3Appling County0-074.193Fitzgerald0-071.66
4Burke County0-073.174Dublin0-070.80
5Rockmart0-071.945Northeast0-069.49
6Thomson0-070.456Rabun County0-064.32
7Stephens County0-069.707Elbert County0-063.48
8Callaway0-069.428Commerce0-063.44
9Carver (Atlanta)0-068.389Swainsboro0-063.27
10Hapeville Charter0-067.3310Fannin County0-062.76
11Morgan County0-065.9611Worth County0-061.72
12Hart County0-063.0412Bleckley County0-059.84
13Crisp County0-062.5413Lamar County0-058.95
14Columbia0-061.2314Dodge County0-058.80
15Cook0-060.3215Jeff Davis0-058.61



A Division II Smaller Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Bowdon0-071.031Prince Avenue Christian0-084.70
2Brooks County0-070.732Savannah Christian0-078.74
3Irwin County0-069.413Calvary Day0-077.54
4Manchester0-067.484Hebron Christian0-075.00
5Lincoln County0-063.235Fellowship Christian0-073.42
6Clinch County0-062.706Athens Academy0-066.00
7Metter0-060.447Wesleyan0-063.52
8Trion0-059.838Lovett0-063.36
9Early County0-058.509North Cobb Christian0-062.94
10Schley County0-057.1910Holy Innocents0-061.62
11Jenkins County0-054.5511Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)0-061.57
12Greene County0-054.4212Greater Atlanta Christian0-058.87
13Telfair County0-053.9313Aquinas0-058.08
14Wilcox County0-052.9814Whitefield Academy0-057.19
15Macon County0-052.7015Savannah Country Day0-056.89



GIAA AAAA-AAA GIAA AA-A
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1First Presbyterian0-056.201Brentwood School0-045.85
2Valwood School0-053.842Edmund Burke Academy0-042.46
3Bulloch Academy0-052.783Southwest Georgia Academy0-041.77
4Brookstone0-052.744Briarwood Academy0-037.20
5John Milledge Academy0-051.555Gatewood School0-037.10



GAPPS
Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cherokee Christian0-027.90
2Lanier Christian0-025.13
3Skipstone Academy0-016.41
4Creekside Christian0-014.05



All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating Sch Str Rank Offense Defense
1 [1]Milton7-AAAAA0-0103.3136.57-12.73
2 [1]Buford8-AAAAAA0-0101.2333.97-13.24
3 [2]Carrollton2-AAAAAA0-0100.1536.60-9.54
4 [3]Grayson4-AAAAAA0-098.3533.98-10.36
5 [2]Lee County2-AAAAA0-096.0734.58-7.48
6 [3]Hughes3-AAAAA0-094.8633.36-7.49
7 [1]Marist5-AAAA0-092.8329.53-9.28
8 [4]Colquitt County1-AAAAAA0-092.7432.62-6.11
9 [5]Mill Creek8-AAAAAA0-092.6931.65-7.03
10 [4]Thomas County Central2-AAAAA0-091.9030.86-7.03
11 [5]Coffee2-AAAAA0-090.3929.14-7.23
12 [6]North Cobb5-AAAAAA0-089.8730.24-5.62
13 [7]North Gwinnett7-AAAAAA0-089.5129.36-6.14
14 [6]Roswell7-AAAAA0-089.4231.35-4.06
15 [2]North Oconee8-AAAA0-089.1028.86-6.22
16 [8]Douglas County2-AAAAAA0-089.0129.01-5.99
17 [3]Creekside4-AAAA0-088.8229.77-5.04
18 [4]Cartersville7-AAAA0-088.5429.05-5.48
19 [9]Collins Hill8-AAAAAA0-088.0826.29-7.78
20 [7]Rome5-AAAAA0-087.2228.07-5.14
21 [10]Walton5-AAAAAA0-087.2029.33-3.86
22 [8]Gainesville7-AAAAA0-087.1429.08-4.05
23 [5]Benedictine1-AAAA0-086.7728.85-3.90
24 [11]Valdosta1-AAAAAA0-085.9026.92-4.98
25 [6]Blessed Trinity6-AAAA0-085.6625.01-6.64
26 [7]Ware County1-AAAA0-085.5427.32-4.21
27 [9]Houston County2-AAAAA0-085.1328.96-2.16
28 [1]Prince Avenue Christian8-AA #0-084.7030.42-0.26
29 [12]Westlake2-AAAAAA0-084.4128.03-2.36
30 [13]Norcross7-AAAAAA0-083.9626.50-3.44
31 [8]Warner Robins1-AAAA0-083.2726.66-2.59
32 [1]Jefferson8-AAA0-083.0925.74-3.33
33 [10]Woodward Academy4-AAAAA0-082.9625.39-3.56
34 [14]Lowndes1-AAAAAA0-082.9627.48-1.47
35 [15]Camden County1-AAAAAA0-082.9327.45-1.47
36 [16]Newton4-AAAAAA0-082.0125.78-2.21
37 [9]Perry1-AAAA0-081.9925.76-2.22
38 [2]Calhoun7-AAA0-080.9424.53-2.40
39 [10]Cedartown7-AAAA0-080.0623.24-2.81
40 [2]Savannah Christian3-A Division I #0-078.7423.53-1.20
41 [17]East Coweta2-AAAAAA0-078.4423.96-0.47
42 [18]West Forsyth6-AAAAAA0-078.3222.14-2.17
43 [1]Carver (Columbus)1-AA0-078.2222.25-1.96
44 [11]Sequoyah6-AAAAA0-078.1023.65-0.43
45 [11]Eastside8-AAAA0-078.0522.36-1.67
46 [19]Brookwood7-AAAAAA0-077.8824.680.81
47 [3]Calvary Day3-AAA #0-077.5424.210.68
48 [20]Richmond Hill1-AAAAAA0-077.5421.78-1.75
49 [21]McEachern3-AAAAAA0-077.2023.600.41
50 [22]Lambert6-AAAAAA0-077.1324.251.14
51 [12]Starr's Mill3-AAAA0-077.1222.91-0.19
52 [2]Pierce County3-AA0-076.9522.72-0.22
53 [12]Brunswick1-AAAAA0-076.8624.021.18
54 [13]Kell6-AAAA0-076.8023.470.69
55 [14]Stockbridge2-AAAA0-075.9923.431.46
56 [23]North Paulding5-AAAAAA0-075.8923.661.78
57 [15]Cambridge6-AAAA0-075.6122.901.30
58 [24]Parkview7-AAAAAA0-075.4821.840.38
59 [25]North Atlanta6-AAAAAA0-075.2022.351.16
60 [26]Harrison3-AAAAAA0-075.1822.150.98
61 [4]Hebron Christian8-AA #0-075.0022.011.02
62 [3]Sandy Creek2-AAA0-074.5822.541.97
63 [16]Central (Carrollton)3-AAAA0-074.5623.132.58
64 [17]Jones County2-AAAA0-074.5122.842.34
65 [27]South Gwinnett4-AAAAAA0-074.4421.751.32
66 [3]Appling County3-AA0-074.1920.11-0.06
67 [4]Peach County1-AAA0-074.1323.213.10
68 [5]LaGrange2-AAA0-074.0221.251.24
69 [28]Peachtree Ridge7-AAAAAA0-073.9421.731.80
70 [1]Toombs County3-A Division I0-073.8321.862.04
71 [29]Marietta5-AAAAAA0-073.4620.901.46
72 [6]Oconee County8-AAA0-073.4420.040.61
73 [5]Fellowship Christian5-A Division I #0-073.4221.962.54
74 [13]River Ridge6-AAAAA0-073.3822.282.91
75 [30]Archer4-AAAAAA0-073.3522.963.62
76 [31]Hillgrove3-AAAAAA0-073.2919.390.11
77 [14]Creekview6-AAAAA0-073.2720.481.23
78 [4]Burke County4-AA0-073.1722.543.39
79 [15]Dutchtown3-AAAAA0-072.8520.691.85
80 [16]Sprayberry6-AAAAA0-072.7921.062.28
81 [2]Thomasville1-A Division I0-072.7421.182.46
82 [18]Mays4-AAAA0-072.5619.721.18
83 [5]Rockmart7-AA0-071.9420.792.86
84 [17]Clarke Central8-AAAAA0-071.8121.613.81
85 [18]East Paulding5-AAAAA0-071.7520.052.31
86 [3]Fitzgerald1-A Division I0-071.6619.511.86
87 [19]Westminster (Atlanta)6-AAAA0-071.5618.591.04
88 [7]Stephenson5-AAA0-071.2320.152.93
89 [8]Cedar Grove5-AAA0-071.1722.595.43
90 [1]Bowdon7-A Division II0-071.0321.904.88
91 [20]Jonesboro3-AAAA0-070.9820.123.15
92 [4]Dublin2-A Division I0-070.8020.473.68
93 [9]Troup2-AAA0-070.7520.343.60
94 [2]Brooks County2-A Division II0-070.7318.001.28
95 [19]Lanier7-AAAAA0-070.5720.403.84
96 [21]Ola2-AAAA0-070.5018.832.35
97 [6]Thomson4-AA0-070.4520.754.32
98 [32]Denmark6-AAAAAA0-070.0918.832.75
99 [22]Cass7-AAAA0-070.0219.073.06
100 [7]Stephens County8-AA0-069.7019.794.11
101 [23]Hiram7-AAAA0-069.5723.007.44
102 [5]Northeast2-A Division I0-069.4919.313.83
103 [8]Callaway2-AA0-069.4219.113.70
104 [3]Irwin County2-A Division II0-069.4120.124.73
105 [24]New Hampstead1-AAAA0-069.2022.877.68
106 [20]Northside (Warner Robins)2-AAAAA0-069.1417.031.90
107 [25]Harris County3-AAAA0-069.1317.071.95
108 [33]North Forsyth6-AAAAAA0-068.9218.903.99
109 [34]Cherokee5-AAAAAA0-068.5419.785.25
110 [9]Carver (Atlanta)5-AA0-068.3818.093.72
111 [21]Effingham County1-AAAAA0-068.2819.405.13
112 [22]Newnan3-AAAAA0-067.8118.955.15
113 [10]Cairo1-AAA0-067.7017.914.23
114 [4]Manchester7-A Division II0-067.4816.382.90
115 [10]Hapeville Charter5-AA0-067.3316.333.01
116 [35]Tift County1-AAAAAA0-067.1916.913.74
117 [36]Wheeler5-AAAAAA0-066.8817.384.50
118 [11]Spalding2-AAA0-066.7917.995.21
119 [26]St. Pius X5-AAAA0-066.7616.113.35
120 [23]Lovejoy3-AAAAA0-066.6516.533.89
121 [24]Glynn Academy1-AAAAA0-066.1517.134.99
122 [12]Whitewater2-AAA0-066.0217.825.81
123 [6]Athens Academy8-A Division I #0-066.0019.007.02
124 [11]Morgan County2-AA0-065.9619.167.22
125 [13]Bainbridge1-AAA0-065.9017.896.00
126 [14]Mary Persons2-AAA0-065.7017.185.49
127 [15]Monroe Area8-AAA0-065.5116.635.13
128 [16]Upson-Lee2-AAA0-064.9516.525.58
129 [17]Jenkins3-AAA0-064.6916.756.07
130 [6]Rabun County8-A Division I0-064.3217.347.03
131 [37]Mountain View8-AAAAAA0-064.3016.586.29
132 [18]Douglass5-AAA0-063.9914.914.93
133 [38]Dacula8-AAAAAA0-063.8916.196.32
134 [19]Cherokee Bluff8-AAA0-063.5915.786.21
135 [7]Wesleyan5-A Division I #0-063.5216.106.60
136 [7]Elbert County8-A Division I0-063.4816.967.49
137 [25]Decatur4-AAAAA0-063.4516.687.25
138 [8]Commerce8-A Division I0-063.4416.707.28
139 [8]Lovett5-AA #0-063.3616.246.89
140 [20]Baldwin4-AAA0-063.3215.556.24
141 [9]Swainsboro3-A Division I0-063.2716.387.12
142 [5]Lincoln County8-A Division II0-063.2316.206.98
143 [26]Veterans2-AAAAA0-063.2115.856.65
144 [27]Tucker5-AAAA0-063.1417.838.70
145 [12]Hart County8-AA0-063.0415.536.50
146 [9]North Cobb Christian7-AA #0-062.9415.286.36
147 [27]Lakeside (Evans)1-AAAAA0-062.9215.706.79
148 [10]Fannin County7-A Division I0-062.7617.098.35
149 [6]Clinch County2-A Division II0-062.7016.637.95
150 [28]Jackson County8-AAAAA0-062.6414.956.32
151 [13]Crisp County3-AA0-062.5413.985.45
152 [28]Allatoona7-AAAA0-062.3115.687.38
153 [29]Northside (Columbus)3-AAAA0-062.1815.156.99
154 [39]Pebblebrook3-AAAAAA0-062.1313.905.78
155 [21]Harlem4-AAA0-061.9214.266.36
156 [29]Villa Rica5-AAAAA0-061.8915.617.73
157 [11]Worth County1-A Division I0-061.7218.0710.36
158 [10]Holy Innocents5-AA #0-061.6214.637.01
159 [40]Alpharetta6-AAAAAA0-061.6015.047.45
160 [11]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)2-AAA #0-061.5715.177.61
161 [30]Flowery Branch8-AAAA0-061.5214.687.17
162 [22]Westover1-AAA0-061.4915.357.87
163 [30]South Paulding5-AAAAA0-061.4214.807.39
164 [14]Columbia6-AA0-061.2315.328.10
165 [31]Maynard Jackson4-AAAA0-060.8315.148.31
166 [32]Southwest DeKalb5-AAAA0-060.7815.738.96
167 [33]Wayne County1-AAAA0-060.6912.796.11
168 [23]North Hall6-AAA0-060.6514.928.28
169 [41]Duluth7-AAAAAA0-060.6315.598.98
170 [31]Woodstock6-AAAAA0-060.5414.197.66
171 [7]Metter3-A Division II0-060.4412.616.18
172 [34]Centennial6-AAAA0-060.4014.838.44
173 [15]Cook3-AA0-060.3215.619.30
174 [32]Statesboro1-AAAAA0-060.2513.607.36
175 [33]Evans1-AAAAA0-060.2313.917.70
176 [34]New Manchester5-AAAAA0-060.1513.187.04
177 [35]Pope6-AAAAA0-060.0916.3410.26
178 [16]Westside (Macon)2-AA0-060.0416.0910.06
179 [24]Southeast Bulloch3-AAA0-059.9113.677.78
180 [12]Bleckley County2-A Division I0-059.8414.648.82
181 [8]Trion7-A Division II0-059.8315.079.25
182 [42]Campbell3-AAAAAA0-059.7213.207.49
183 [25]Lumpkin County6-AAA0-059.3715.289.93
184 [43]Etowah5-AAAAAA0-059.3513.378.04
185 [26]Northwest Whitfield7-AAA0-059.1514.609.46
186 [27]Adairsville7-AAA0-059.1214.449.33
187 [13]Lamar County4-A Division I0-058.9512.257.31
188 [28]Luella5-AAA0-058.8912.077.20
189 [12]Greater Atlanta Christian6-AAA #0-058.8713.909.03
190 [36]Winder-Barrow8-AAAAA0-058.8414.219.38
191 [14]Dodge County2-A Division I0-058.8013.518.73
192 [35]Hampton2-AAAA0-058.7713.288.52
193 [15]Jeff Davis1-A Division I0-058.6112.057.45
194 [9]Early County1-A Division II0-058.5013.328.83
195 [36]East Forsyth8-AAAA0-058.2314.019.79
196 [37]Northgate3-AAAAA0-058.2212.207.99
197 [17]Sumter County1-AA0-058.1612.838.68
198 [13]Aquinas4-AAA #0-058.0814.1710.11
199 [44]South Forsyth6-AAAAAA0-057.9314.3110.39
200 [37]Madison County8-AAAA0-057.8814.3310.47
201 [38]Dalton7-AAAA0-057.7813.309.53
202 [18]Ringgold7-AA0-057.6512.238.59
203 [38]Habersham Central8-AAAAA0-057.5014.4110.92
204 [39]Pace Academy4-AAAA0-057.3310.997.68
205 [29]Heritage (Ringgold)7-AAA0-057.2213.139.92
206 [10]Schley County6-A Division II0-057.1914.9711.79
207 [14]Whitefield Academy5-A Division I #0-057.1912.128.95
208 [30]Monroe1-AAA0-057.1212.369.26
209 [16]Heard County6-A Division I0-056.9213.6010.69
210 [15]Savannah Country Day3-A Division I #0-056.8911.678.79
211 [31]West Laurens4-AAA0-056.8513.4610.62
212 [39]Kennesaw Mountain5-AAAAA0-056.5612.519.97
213 [40]Shiloh4-AAAAA0-056.4712.4510.00
214 [1]First PresbyterianGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-056.2012.7310.54
215 [41]Dunwoody4-AAAAA0-056.1913.1110.93
216 [17]Bremen6-A Division I0-056.0712.0710.01
217 [32]Long County3-AAA0-056.0112.5210.52
218 [33]Dougherty1-AAA0-055.7813.3211.55
219 [19]Laney4-AA0-055.7711.289.52
220 [34]Howard4-AAA0-055.7412.6810.95
221 [42]Chattahoochee7-AAAAA0-055.3414.8513.52
222 [43]Alexander5-AAAAA0-054.9610.9510.00
223 [20]North Murray7-AA0-054.8312.1411.32
224 [45]Central Gwinnett8-AAAAAA0-054.7910.699.91
225 [18]Washington County2-A Division I0-054.5612.3711.82
226 [44]Loganville8-AAAAA0-054.5512.8412.31
227 [11]Jenkins County3-A Division II0-054.5511.9211.38
228 [46]Paulding County3-AAAAAA0-054.5412.4311.90
229 [47]Forsyth Central6-AAAAAA0-054.4911.1010.62
230 [12]Greene County8-A Division II0-054.4210.169.76
231 [48]Chapel Hill2-AAAAAA0-054.2710.4510.19
232 [45]McIntosh3-AAAAA0-054.2611.2911.04
233 [46]Greenbrier1-AAAAA0-054.0510.8610.83
234 [13]Telfair County4-A Division II0-053.9311.3311.41
235 [40]Eagle's Landing Christian2-AAAA0-053.879.609.74
236 [2]Valwood SchoolGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-053.8412.6512.82
237 [16]Mount Vernon5-A Division I #0-053.8413.4713.65
238 [35]Gilmer7-AAA0-053.4711.3311.87
239 [19]Putnam County4-A Division I0-053.4311.7512.33
240 [36]Dawson County6-AAA0-053.429.7510.35
241 [37]White County6-AAA0-053.2611.8212.57
242 [47]Seckinger7-AAAAA0-053.2210.6111.40
243 [21]Union County7-AA0-053.0411.4512.43
244 [41]Union Grove2-AAAA0-053.009.6510.66
245 [14]Wilcox County4-A Division II0-052.9810.2011.23
246 [22]East Jackson8-AA0-052.8011.9513.16
247 [3]Bulloch AcademyGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-052.789.2210.45
248 [4]BrookstoneGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-052.7410.5311.80
249 [38]Westside (Augusta)4-AAA0-052.718.8010.10
250 [15]Macon County6-A Division II0-052.7010.6711.98
251 [42]Eagle's Landing2-AAAA0-052.6410.9812.35
252 [20]Temple6-A Division I0-052.4511.5713.14
253 [23]Spencer1-AA0-052.4010.3511.96
254 [16]Charlton County2-A Division II0-052.3011.5813.29
255 [17]Emanuel County Institute3-A Division II0-052.029.8911.89
256 [17]Darlington6-A Division I #0-051.9410.4412.51
257 [18]Christian Heritage7-A Division I #0-051.5910.5112.93
258 [21]Vidalia3-A Division I0-051.599.6012.03
259 [5]John Milledge AcademyGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-051.5510.3512.81
260 [48]Arabia Mountain4-AAAAA0-051.549.8112.29
261 [49]Banneker3-AAAAA0-051.5310.8713.35
262 [43]Griffin3-AAAA0-051.389.8912.52
263 [6]Tattnall SquareGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-051.3010.3713.08
264 [50]Johns Creek7-AAAAA0-051.1510.4713.33
265 [44]Walnut Grove8-AAAA0-051.128.2611.15
266 [24]Miller Grove6-AA0-050.879.1912.33
267 [51]Riverwood6-AAAAA0-050.819.1912.39
268 [52]Lithia Springs5-AAAAA0-050.7610.5613.81
269 [25]South Atlanta6-AA0-050.729.6812.98
270 [39]Liberty County3-AAA0-050.537.9111.40
271 [53]Bradwell Institute1-AAAAA0-050.4511.7215.27
272 [40]Pickens6-AAA0-050.3410.7914.46
273 [26]Sonoraville7-AA0-050.2610.1713.93
274 [22]ACE Charter2-A Division I0-050.1410.9214.78
275 [18]Johnson County5-A Division II0-050.016.8810.88
276 [19]McIntosh County Academy3-A Division II0-049.897.3611.48
277 [27]Jackson2-AA0-049.868.1412.29
278 [49]Osborne3-AAAAAA0-049.636.7111.10
279 [7]St. Anne-PacelliGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-049.567.8312.28
280 [23]Social Circle4-A Division I0-049.498.8413.36
281 [54]Chamblee4-AAAAA0-049.329.1613.85
282 [8]Stratford AcademyGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-049.168.7213.57
283 [24]Gordon Lee7-A Division I0-049.099.0113.94
284 [55]Tri-Cities4-AAAAA0-049.006.9711.99
285 [20]Pelham1-A Division II0-048.8810.0015.13
286 [41]Hephzibah4-AAA0-048.859.6614.82
287 [50]Grovetown4-AAAAAA0-048.499.1914.71
288 [21]Washington-Wilkes8-A Division II0-048.458.8114.37
289 [56]Morrow3-AAAAA0-048.437.1012.69
290 [25]Model6-A Division I0-048.336.5912.27
291 [22]Miller County1-A Division II0-048.207.3213.13
292 [45]Mundy's Mill3-AAAA0-048.066.8412.79
293 [9]Westfield SchoolGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-047.988.7814.81
294 [23]Mitchell County1-A Division II0-047.928.5114.61
295 [26]Bacon County1-A Division I0-047.767.8714.12
296 [27]Pepperell6-A Division I0-047.608.2114.62
297 [57]South Effingham1-AAAAA0-047.478.6815.23
298 [46]Woodland (Cartersville)7-AAAA0-047.457.5214.09
299 [47]Cedar Shoals8-AAAA0-047.448.0814.65
300 [48]Locust Grove2-AAAA0-047.089.6316.56
301 [49]M.L. King4-AAAA0-047.017.6314.63
302 [10]Deerfield-WindsorGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-046.847.9515.13
303 [28]Jasper County4-A Division I0-046.817.1414.35
304 [58]Alcovy8-AAAAA0-046.817.0114.21
305 [19]Providence Christian8-A Division I #0-046.739.6016.88
306 [51]Meadowcreek7-AAAAAA0-046.698.9316.25
307 [42]Chestatee6-AAA0-046.618.5815.98
308 [52]Berkmar7-AAAAAA0-046.575.7513.19
309 [24]Warren County8-A Division II0-046.387.8315.47
310 [28]Therrell5-AA0-046.375.5413.18
311 [59]Lassiter6-AAAAA0-046.307.3215.04
312 [50]Drew4-AAAA0-046.285.8413.58
313 [60]Lakeside (Atlanta)4-AAAAA0-045.996.6214.64
314 [29]Southwest2-A Division I0-045.958.0416.10
315 [25]Bryan County3-A Division II0-045.906.6014.72
316 [1]Brentwood SchoolGIAA District 4-AA-A0-045.859.3417.51
317 [11]Tiftarea AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-045.788.4816.71
318 [51]Woodland (Stockbridge)2-AAAA0-045.757.7416.00
319 [30]Dade County7-A Division I0-045.667.3215.67
320 [12]Bethlehem ChristianGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-045.585.6214.06
321 [26]Seminole County1-A Division II0-045.484.1212.65
322 [29]Shaw1-AA0-045.305.4114.12
323 [20]Mount Paran Christian5-A Division I #0-045.076.6015.55
324 [43]Richmond Academy4-AAA0-045.055.1514.12
325 [44]West Hall8-AAA0-044.737.2416.52
326 [31]Banks County8-A Division I0-044.734.9314.21
327 [27]Turner County2-A Division II0-044.678.5517.89
328 [45]East Hall8-AAA0-044.488.7318.26
329 [28]Lanier County2-A Division II0-044.465.7115.26
330 [32]Berrien1-A Division I0-044.267.9817.73
331 [13]Frederica AcademyGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-044.146.0915.96
332 [52]McDonough2-AAAA0-043.436.9517.53
333 [53]Lithonia5-AAAA0-043.145.0415.92
334 [33]Haralson County6-A Division I0-043.124.7215.61
335 [53]Heritage (Conyers)4-AAAAAA0-043.125.6916.59
336 [34]East Laurens2-A Division I0-042.776.5217.76
337 [46]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)5-AAA0-042.753.2114.47
338 [30]Washington5-AA0-042.744.1015.37
339 [29]Hawkinsville4-A Division II0-042.725.5616.86
340 [30]Wheeler County4-A Division II0-042.495.7517.27
341 [2]Edmund Burke AcademyGIAA District 4-AA-A0-042.464.5216.08
342 [31]Tattnall County3-AA0-042.464.3015.86
343 [32]Hardaway1-AA0-042.415.0816.68
344 [31]Taylor County6-A Division II0-041.903.4615.57
345 [3]Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA District 3-AA-A0-041.775.2617.51
346 [33]Lakeview Ft. Oglethorpe7-AA0-041.656.9419.30
347 [34]Franklin County8-AA0-041.494.2816.81
348 [32]Dooly County4-A Division II0-041.054.8617.82
349 [35]Chattooga7-A Division I0-040.875.6318.77
350 [54]Rockdale County4-AAAAAA0-040.664.1217.47
351 [33]Portal3-A Division II0-040.593.8117.24
352 [47]North Clayton5-AAA0-040.586.7620.19
353 [48]Johnson (Savannah)3-AAA0-040.543.0116.48
354 [36]Brantley County1-A Division I0-040.542.4315.90
355 [21]Mount Pisgah Christian5-A Division I #0-040.454.4518.01
356 [35]Pike County2-AA0-040.164.5618.42
357 [34]Marion County6-A Division II0-040.124.6118.50
358 [22]King's Ridge Christian5-A Division I #0-040.113.7617.66
359 [35]Screven County3-A Division II0-040.093.3017.23
360 [49]Fayette County2-AAA0-040.044.9318.90
361 [50]Riverdale5-AAA0-039.993.6317.65
362 [14]George Walton AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-039.883.7817.91
363 [61]Apalachee8-AAAAA0-039.804.3318.55
364 [36]Wilkinson County5-A Division II0-039.633.5417.92
365 [51]Windsor Forest3-AAA0-039.623.7518.14
366 [36]Coahulla Creek7-AA0-039.613.2617.67
367 [37]McNair4-A Division I0-039.053.5418.50
368 [52]Beach3-AAA0-039.033.2318.21
369 [37]Redan6-AA0-039.003.1018.11
370 [15]Terrell AcademyGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-038.782.6317.86
371 [38]Oglethorpe County8-A Division I0-038.754.7320.00
372 [23]Landmark Christian5-A Division I #0-038.564.2919.74
373 [16]Strong Rock ChristianGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-038.483.6819.21
374 [55]Discovery8-AAAAAA0-037.762.1418.39
375 [54]Druid Hills5-AAAA0-037.732.2018.48
376 [38]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate5-AA0-037.630.9317.31
377 [37]Mount Zion (Carroll)7-A Division II0-037.393.8020.42
378 [4]Briarwood AcademyGIAA District 4-AA-A0-037.202.6519.46
379 [5]Gatewood SchoolGIAA District 4-AA-A0-037.102.9319.84
380 [39]Jefferson County2-A Division I0-036.722.5419.83
381 [17]Pinewood ChristianGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-036.675.0522.39
382 [38]Treutlen4-A Division II0-036.522.3219.82
383 [53]LaFayette7-AAA0-036.303.1120.82
384 [6]Southland AcademyGIAA District 3-AA-A0-036.140.6818.55
385 [55]North Springs5-AAAA0-035.921.7819.87
386 [39]Lake Oconee Academy8-A Division II0-035.921.6719.77
387 [56]Midtown4-AAAA0-035.611.8520.25
388 [18]Brookwood SchoolGIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA0-035.434.8223.40
389 [39]Rutland2-AA0-035.062.1121.06
390 [40]Butler4-AA0-034.781.1520.38
391 [40]Hancock Central5-A Division II0-034.762.7922.05
392 [56]South Cobb3-AAAAAA0-034.601.7521.17
393 [19]Lakeview AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-034.402.3621.97
394 [41]Randolph-Clay1-A Division II0-034.100.9120.82
395 [42]Greenville7-A Division II0-033.841.7621.93
396 [40]Coosa7-A Division I0-033.821.2421.43
397 [43]Montgomery County4-A Division II0-033.733.0723.35
398 [41]Armuchee7-A Division I0-033.660.8521.20
399 [54]Cross Creek4-AAA0-033.661.8622.21
400 [42]B.E.S.T. Academy5-A Division I0-033.560.4020.86
401 [55]Ridgeland7-AAA0-033.41-0.7619.84
402 [41]Columbus1-AA0-033.121.6022.50
403 [44]Chattahoochee County6-A Division II0-032.85-0.5220.64
404 [7]Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA District 3-AA-A0-032.780.5921.82
405 [8]Flint River AcademyGIAA District 1-AA-A0-032.24-1.6820.09
406 [45]Atkinson County2-A Division II †0-031.450.3022.86
407 [56]Islands3-AAA0-031.21-3.0919.72
408 [42]Salem6-AA0-031.00-1.3121.70
409 [9]Central Fellowship ChristianGIAA District 1-AA-A0-030.60-0.9222.49
410 [20]Mount de SalesGIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA0-030.26-0.2423.51
411 [43]Gordon Central7-A Division I0-030.150.0723.93
412 [44]Towers4-A Division I0-030.14-1.1522.73
413 [46]Terrell County1-A Division II0-029.53-2.2122.27
414 [47]Crawford County6-A Division II0-029.280.8725.60
415 [48]Claxton3-A Division II0-029.04-0.5924.38
416 [1]Cherokee ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-027.90-2.3923.72
417 [45]Central (Macon)2-A Division I0-027.74-3.2922.98
418 [21]Piedmont AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-027.21-2.8923.91
419 [10]Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA District 3-AA-A0-026.78-1.3725.86
420 [49]Glascock County5-A Division II0-026.28-0.3327.41
421 [57]Forest Park4-AAAA0-025.92-3.4724.62
422 [57]Stone Mountain5-AAA †0-025.88-2.6225.52
423 [58]Northview5-AAAA0-025.80-3.5524.66
424 [22]Athens ChristianGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-025.19-2.0126.81
425 [2]Lanier ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-025.13-4.6424.24
426 [23]St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA0-024.19-3.1426.68
427 [58]Groves3-AAA0-023.52-1.1629.33
428 [11]Thomas JeffersonGIAA District 4-AA-A0-023.18-4.6526.18
429 [24]King's AcademyGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-022.70-5.5525.77
430 [43]Murray County7-AA0-022.58-3.0228.41
431 [59]Southeast Whitfield7-AAAA †0-022.16-5.3526.50
432 [59]Johnson (Gainesville)6-AAA0-022.05-3.7328.23
433 [50]Georgia Military Prep5-A Division II0-021.72-5.5026.80
434 [44]Kendrick1-AA0-020.94-6.4626.61
435 [51]Towns County8-A Division II †0-019.88-6.4327.70
436 [25]Loganville ChristianGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-019.28-5.8528.89
437 [45]Glenn Hills4-AA0-019.20-6.1828.64
438 [12]Heritage (Newnan)GIAA District 1-AA-A0-018.63-7.0928.30
439 [13]Augusta PrepGIAA District 4-AA-A0-018.58-5.6829.75
440 [26]Calvary ChristianGIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA0-018.03-8.3727.62
441 [3]Skipstone AcademyGAPPS Region 1-AA0-016.41-7.3830.22
442 [46]Mount Bethel Christian5-A Division I †0-015.72-9.1329.16
443 [4]Creekside ChristianGAPPS Region 1-AA0-014.05-7.9731.99
444 [46]Josey4-AA0-013.80-8.6731.55
445 [52]Pataula Charter1-A Division II †0-013.49-9.0531.48
446 [53]Baconton Charter1-A Division II †0-013.47-7.7832.77
447 [54]Twiggs County5-A Division II0-013.38-8.4632.17
448 [55]Savannah3-A Division II0-013.36-12.1728.49
449 [14]Rock Springs ChristianGIAA District 1-AA-A0-011.20-10.6132.20
450 [24]Walker5-A Division I #0-010.95-10.6632.40
451 [56]Calhoun County1-A Division II †0-09.33-9.2535.43
452 [47]Jordan1-AA0-08.79-11.2234.00
453 [60]Clarkston5-AAAA0-08.01-13.3932.61
454 [27]Riverside PrepGIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA0-06.56-12.1335.32
455 [15]Windsor AcademyGIAA District 1-AA-A0-05.48-11.6536.88
456 [57]Central (Talbotton)6-A Division II0-03.26-15.1635.59
457 [47]Utopian Academy4-A Division I0-02.44-16.9434.63
458 [58]Southwest Georgia STEM1-A Division II †0-0-5.84-16.8642.99
459 [61]Cross Keys5-AAAA †0-0-8.31-20.2442.08

† - Plays a non-region schedule / # - Qualifies for the smaller private school playoffs

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Teams Comp Rating Avg Rating
12-AAAAA688.4482.64
22-AAAAAA588.3481.26
31-AAAAAA685.4581.54
47-AAAAA782.6572.88
51-AAAA682.3077.91
68-AAAAAA782.2871.82
75-AAAAAA779.6574.46
86-AAAA578.2074.01
97-AAAAAA876.5769.33
104-AAAAAA776.0065.77
116-AAAAAA872.1267.96
123-AAAAA872.0064.33
138-AA471.5756.76
147-AAAA771.2467.96
158-AAAA770.7263.33
163-A Division I369.9762.90
173-AAAA769.8164.77
186-AAAAA869.6764.41
198-AAA669.4462.47
203-AA569.0763.29
215-AAAAA869.0263.09
222-AAA868.8865.36
233-AAAAAA867.2960.79
241-AAA667.0263.69
251-AAAAA965.2060.74
264-AAAA864.0254.29
272-AAAA1063.5657.55
284-AAAAA863.0956.86
291-A Division I762.9056.76
307-AAA761.7354.23
317-A Division II561.4553.91
325-AA561.0152.49
338-AAAAA760.8155.99
348-A Division I560.3954.95
352-A Division II660.3857.38
362-AA659.7153.42
375-AAA759.6855.52
382-A Division I1058.0851.68
397-AA856.9848.95
404-AAA856.9452.26
415-AAAA956.5848.24
423-AAA956.3045.01
434-AA656.1144.53
446-AAA755.3249.39
456-A Division I653.2550.75
461-AA852.5942.42
475-A Division I151.7733.56
486-AA551.6846.56
49GIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA551.4447.69
508-A Division II551.2249.68
513-A Division II949.0442.87
527-A Division I748.7742.29
534-A Division I747.7240.04
54GIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA547.4744.13
554-A Division II746.9843.35
56GIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA546.8441.36
57GIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA444.7139.45
586-A Division II744.4036.76
591-A Division II740.6744.66
60GIAA District 4-AA-A638.8434.06
615-A Division II637.2030.96
62GIAA District 3-AA-A437.1334.37
63GIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA833.2827.60
64GIAA District 1-AA-A524.8519.63
65GAPPS Region 1-AA423.7520.87

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Favorite Underdog Score Diff Prob Likelihood

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Prob
102.9508/14MiltonBuford - 0.6652.0%
95.0010/31BufordMill Creek - 9.9776.6%
94.4609/26Lee CountyThomas County Central - 2.7458.1%
94.4409/12Lee CountyColquitt County - 4.7763.8%
93.4010/03Lee CountyCoffee - 4.2662.4%
93.1310/31MiltonRoswell - 12.4781.5%
91.8410/31Thomas County CentralCoffee - 0.0950.3%
91.8210/03BufordCollins Hill - 11.7180.1%
91.7808/15GraysonCollins Hill - 8.8474.1%
91.7208/29Colquitt CountyNorth Gwinnett - 1.7955.3%
91.7009/05Mill CreekNorth Gwinnett - 1.7555.2%
91.6609/05BufordRoswell - 13.2482.9%
91.3010/31CarrolltonDouglas County - 12.5581.7%
91.2509/12BufordDouglas County - 13.6383.5%
91.1609/05HughesDouglas County - 7.2670.4%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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