How Donald Trump’s tariffs could pinch Georgia’s economy, politics

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• Activist Riley Gaines previews a transgender sports bill in Georgia.
• Court reporter shortage inspires bill to allow recorded hearings.
• Georgia U.S. Rep. Mike Collins gets a new role.

Georgians are about to feel the squeeze of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico as two of the countries have already ordered countermeasures that could ignite a damaging trade war.

“IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID,” Trump posted in an all-caps social media post, acknowledging that there will likely be “some pain” in his decision.

Trump’s weekend orders hit three of Georgia’s top trading partners. Of all the countries in the world, Georgia buys the most from China. Mexico ranks third and Canada is in the Top 10. An economic analysis shows total trade between Georgia and the three countries tops $54 billion.

The tariffs, which go into effect on Tuesday, impose duties of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on imports from China. Energy imported from Canada would be taxed at 10%, which could raise prices at the pump.

Trump’s actions could raise the price on everything from cars to clothes to computers. And it’s already triggered retaliatory tariffs from Canada and Mexico — top buyers of Georgia-made products — as well as a warning by China that it would enact “necessary countermeasures.”

“We don’t want to be here,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday after stressing the deep ties between the two countries. “We didn’t ask for this.”

The tariffs could be particularly harmful to Georgia agriculture, the state’s top business. Farmers long felt the sting of China’s 2019 levies on cotton, peanuts, pecans and soybeans in a tit-for-tat trade war during Trump’s first term.

But some farmers welcomed the tariffs this time, at least the ones on Mexico. Georgia farmers have long complained the federal government puts them at a disadvantage by requiring them to pay a minimum wage to immigrants who come here temporarily to harvest crops.

That wage has been steadily increasing, jumping 9% on Dec. 30 to $16.08 per hour. It’s increased 31% in the past three years, according to state Sen. Russ Goodman, a Cogdell Republican who chairs the Senate Agriculture and Consumer Affairs Committee.

Goodman argues the wage doubles as a tariff on American farmers, since farmers in Mexico and other countries are not bound by it. He said tariffs “may not be the answer long term” but could help in the short run.

Democrats spent the weekend warning that Trump’s policies are to blame for raising prices.

“Trump’s tariffs are about to inflict economic pain across our state,” said Democratic state Rep. Scott Holcomb, D-Atlanta. “And we’ll see higher prices and reduced economic activity.”

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U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams of Atlanta withdrew her bid Saturday for vice chair of civic engagement and voter participation of the Democratic National Committee.

GOOD MORNING! D.C. politicos: don’t miss our special taping of the “Politically Georgia” podcast in Washington on Thursday. U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Rome, will be there. And so will CNN’s Dana Bash and Kasie Hunt.

Join Greg Bluestein, Tia Mitchell and Patricia Murphy for a special live-to-tape recording of the podcast. Click here to RSVP.

Here are five things to know for today:

• U.S. Rep. Nikema Williams of Atlanta did not get a post with the Democratic National Committee, meaning she’ll have to decide if she wants to engage in a messy internal fight to remain leader of the Democratic Party of Georgia, Greg Bluestein writes.
• A trial about a disputed election in the Georgia House of Representatives showed that errors put dozens of voters in the wrong district, the AJC’s Mark Niesse reports.
• U.S. Rep. David Scott turns 80 in June and has represented an Atlanta-area House district for 12 terms. But he’ll face a formidable primary challenge from state Sen. Emanuel Jones of Decatur, Bluestein and the AJC’s Caleb Groves report.
• An AJC analysis of Georgia’s 5.3 million ballots cast in the presidential election show President Donald Trump benefited from straight ticket voters, Mark Niesse reports.
• Trump has targeted what he called an “electric vehicle mandate” imposed by former President Joe Biden’s administration. The AJC’s Zachary Hansen and Drew Kann break down what that could mean for Georgia.

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(From third left) Former collegiate swimmers Kaitlynn Wheeler, Riley Gaines and Grace Countie, testified in opposition to transgender athletes competing against women in sports at a Georgia Senate special committee hearing in Atlanta last August.

TRANS RIGHTS. House Speaker Jon Burns promised weeks ago to back legislation that would ban transgender girls from women’s sports. Don’t be surprised to see that proposal surface this week.

The legislation will be named for Riley Gaines, the former Kentucky swimmer who has long criticized the NCAA for allowing a transgender woman to compete at a 2022 championship.

“It will protect girls’ sports, and it will protect girls’ spaces, in the state of Georgia,” she said in a video that Burns posted. “I’m just very grateful for Speaker Burns, and everything that he has done to champion and support this.”

The Georgia Senate already has a jump on this debate. A Senate committee last week approved similar legislation with bipartisan support after a debate that invoked Gaines and other swimmers’ experiences during the 2022 NCAA national swimming and diving championships hosted by Georgia Tech.

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Gov. Brian Kemp wants to change the civil litigation rules in Georgia, which is resurrecting an old fight about seat belts.

SEAT BELTS. Gov. Brian Kemp’s push to change the state’s civil litigation rules is bringing back plenty of old fights — and that includes seat belts.

Georgia has required people to wear seat belts since 1988. But if you don’t wear one, it can’t be used against you when you file a lawsuit asking for money to pay medical bills from a vehicle wreck.

The idea is to not let reckless drivers off the hook just because the person they hit wasn’t wearing a seat belt. But sometimes the rule can have bigger implications.

In 2020, a Georgia woman was injured in a car wreck. She sued Ford because the airbag didn’t deploy, arguing it was a defective design. Ford argued they had a constitutional right to defend themselves, which included presenting evidence that the woman wasn’t wearing a seat belt.

But the Georgia Supreme Court disagreed, despite some of the justices having “serious concerns about the constitutionality of a statute that strips from a defendant the ability … to present a defense.”

“This simply defies common sense, and our bill will rectify that,” Gov. Brian Kemp said during his news conference announcing his legislation.

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Chief Justice Michael P. Boggs is concerned about the lack of court stenographers.

OF NOTE. Georgia Chief Justice Michael Boggs warned lawmakers last week about the “growing crisis” of a lack of court reporters His solution: let the computers do (some of) it.

Boggs is backing a recommendation by the Judicial Council to give judges the option of using a digital recording system in lieu of a human being in some hearings. State Rep. Tyler Paul Smith, R-Bremen, is the primary author of a bill that would give judges the option to record proceedings such as arraignments, guilty pleas, bond hearings and any hearing where a witness does not testify.

Artificial intelligence apps have improved for transcribing recordings, but they’re not perfect, as any journalist will tell you. Still, this bill wouldn’t authorize AI to generate a transcript of a hearing. Recordings would still have to be transcribed and certified before they would be considered as part of the official record.

Lawmakers tried to help court reporters two years ago when they agreed to double their expense and travel allowances. But based on Boggs’ State of the Judiciary address last week, it hasn’t seemed to help much.

“This shortage is felt nationwide and has only gotten worse since I last spoke to you,” he said. “The consequences are very real because of delayed hearings in trial courts, delayed appeals to our appellate courts, and delayed closure for victims of crime.”

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The Georgia Capitol in Atlanta.

UNDER THE GOLD DOME. It’s the 10th day of the legislative session. Some happenings:

• 10 a.m.: House and Senate convene. The Senate could vote on Senate Bill 16, which would let bail bond business owners hold elected office.
• 1 p.m.: House Ways and Means Income Tax Subcommittee meets to discuss a bill that would cut the income tax rate to 4.99% by 2027. They’ll also discuss House Bill 112, which would provide a one-time tax credit of between $250 and $500 for most taxpayers.
• 1 p.m.: Senate Public Safety Committee will consider Senate Bill 21, which aims to punish local governments that try to act as a sanctuary city for people living in the country illegally.
• 2 p.m.: House Health Committee hears House Bill 94, which would require coverage of some fertility treatments for people with cancer, lupus or sickle cell.
• 2 p.m. House Sales Tax Subcommittee meets to discuss Gov. Brian Kemp’s brief suspension of the gas tax following Hurricane Helene.
• 4 p.m. Senate Judiciary Committee will consider Senate Bill 9, which aims to outlaw child pornography generated by artificial intelligence

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State Sen. Nikki Merritt, a Democrat from Grayson, is a guest today on the "Politically Georgia" show.

LISTEN UP. Today on “Politically Georgia,” Cody Hall, political adviser to Gov. Brian Kemp, joins the show to talk about the governor’s legislative priorities and political future. Then, state Sen. Nikki Merritt, D-Grayson, talks about Senate Bill 1, which would ban transgender athletes from competing against women in high school and collegiate sports.

Be sure to download the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Have a question for the show? Give us a call at 770-810-5297. Episodes are uploaded by noon each day, just in time to have lunch with us. You can also listen live at 10 a.m. EDT on 90.1 FM WABE.

On Friday’s show, political strategist James Carville gave his advice on how Democrats can find their way back to power. And host Bill Nigut reflected on his five-decade career before retiring.

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President Donald Trump gives a pen to U.S. Rep. Mike Collins (left), a Republican from Jackson, after signing the Laken Riley Act at the White House last week. Collins was the primary sponsor of the bill.

COLLINS’ PRIZE. U.S. Rep. Mike Collins is joining Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s inner circle.

Emmer, R-Minn., tapped Collins, R-Jackson, to join the Republican whip team. Collins will be responsible for helping to count votes to ensure the GOP has the majority needed to pass high-profile legislation.

That’s going to be a huge job as Republicans start cobbling together sweeping legislation to fund the government past March 15, raise the debt limit, and pay for tax cuts and immigration crackdowns championed by Trump.

“There is an incredible amount of work to get done in the 119th Congress, and I am proud to be a part of the leadership team that will help implement President Trump’s America First agenda in the House,” Collins said in a statement.

It’s been a big few weeks for Collins. He also was the primary sponsor of the Laken Riley Act, which received bipartisan support in both chambers on its way to becoming the first measure to be signed into law by President Donald Trump this year.

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TODAY IN WASHINGTON:

• President Donald Trump said he will be speaking with some leaders of countries targeted for tariffs, including Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
• The U.S. Senate will convene this evening to restart work on Trump’s nominations.
• The House returns Tuesday.

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