Democrats see promising signs in Georgia’s early vote

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• Test your knowledge with our news quiz.
• Kemp administration says currently deployed Guard members will rotate home by December.
• Medicaid reimbursement rate cuts anger foster care advocates and lawmakers.

Encouraging numbers

We’ve told you how early voting is surging in Democratic-leaning parts of Georgia, even as Republicans raise concerns about lagging turnout in rural GOP strongholds.

Now comes another encouraging sign for Democrats: Black and younger voters are heading to the polls at a significantly faster clip than during the last midterm election.

A new analysis by a Democratic data and analytics firm found that early in-person voting among Black Georgians is up 33% compared with the first nine days of voting in 2022, while turnout among voters under 30 has jumped 54%. Among young Black voters, the increase is an eye-popping 80%.

And it’s not just a matter of more Georgians voting early. Black voters now account for 34% of the early electorate, according to the Georgia Votes tracking site, up from 32% at the same point four years ago. The share of voters under 30 has climbed from 6% to 7%.

And more than 75,000 Black Georgians who skipped the 2022 midterm have already voted this year, according to state data.

The findings are welcome news for Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff, who are counting on strong turnout from both groups in their races for governor and U.S. Senate.

Ossoff has worked to rebuild the Democratic Party of Georgia since the 2024 election, and he’s transferred at least $3.7 million to help bolster the organization’s voter outreach and turnout network.

The numbers don’t tell us how these Georgians are voting, or whether they’re simply casting ballots earlier than they otherwise would. And Republicans are seeing turnout gains of their own in conservative strongholds in the Atlanta exurbs.

But the emerging picture gives Democrats more reason to believe the voters they’ve spent months trying to mobilize are showing up early.

Friday news quiz

Good morning! How closely did you follow the news this week? Find out by taking our quiz. You’ll find the answers at the end of the newsletter.

The U.S. Postal Inspection Service is investigating a series of suspicious mailings to public officials that contained a powdered substance. What Georgia officials received one?

• A) Brad Raffensperger and Raphael Warnock.
• B) Mike Collins and Jon Ossoff.
• C) Brian Kemp and Nikema Williams.
• D) Clay Fuller and Hank Johnson.

A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released this week shows Jon Ossoff leading Republican Mike Collins in the U.S. Senate race. What percentage of self-described conservatives said they plan to vote for Ossoff?

• A) 4%
• B) 20%
• C) 7%
• D) 13%

The Atlanta City Council this week voted to support a boycott of Starbucks. Why?

• A) To punish the company for its aggressive tactics in trying to change the zoning of a historic district to permit a new Starbucks location.
• B) Two members of the company’s board of directors have donated to President Donald Trump and support his immigration policies.
• C) To oppose the company’s decision to change its open door policy, meaning people who don’t buy anything can’t use the restroom.
• D) To support unionized baristas who are fighting with the company for a contract.

Two billionaires made big donations to Keisha Lance Bottoms’ campaign for governor this week. Who are they?

• A) Michael Bloomberg and JB Pritzker.
• B) Reid Hoffman and George Soros.
• C) Steve and Sue Mandel.
• D) Bill Gates and Tom Steyer.

Rotating home

A day after we reported on seven Democratic lawmakers urging Gov. Brian Kemp to bring Georgia National Guard troops home from Washington for the holidays, his administration has an answer: The soldiers currently deployed are scheduled to return in early December.

In a letter to state Rep. Sandra Scott, Deputy Adjutant General Joe Ferrero said the Guard is conducting “scheduled, routine three-to-six-month rotations” and that returning soldiers and their families will receive support for the transition.

The rotation schedule means there won’t be any new Georgia troops in D.C. until at least next year. Georgia had 516 Guard members stationed in Washington as of Tuesday, more than any other state.

Insurance battle

A private insurer’s decision to cut Georgia Medicaid reimbursement rates for treatment of children in foster care has drawn the ire of parents, treatment providers and two Republican legislators.

The state has outsourced its Medicaid insurance work to three insurance companies, one of which — Amerigroup — covers foster children. According to the Georgia Recorder, Amerigroup recently cut its reimbursement rate for autism treatment for foster children by 30%, forcing some therapy providers to stop accepting new patients at the new rate or to drop some existing patients.

The move drew the attention of state Rep. Scott Hilton, R-Peachtree Corners, and state Sen. Brian Strickland, R-McDonough. On Thursday, they held a news conference outside the Georgia Capitol to demand the insurer reconsider the reimbursement cuts or face scrutiny when the General Assembly reconvenes in January. They were joined by care providers and families whose children receive that care.

“Every child with autism needs our support,” Strickland said. “But it’s especially disturbing that Amerigroup decided to abruptly cut services to the most vulnerable among us.”

Amerigroup told the Georgia Recorder that medically necessary services are still being covered and patients should keep up with appointments and continue to get treatment.

Strickland and Hilton both face tight races in the November election. Strickland faces Democrat Tanya Miller in the race for attorney general, while Hilton’s reelection bid against Democrat Adam Cleveland is key to Democratic hopes of winning control of the state House of Representatives.

State Rep. Michelle Au, D-Johns Creek, later issued a statement saying Strickland and other Republicans can only blame themselves for the cuts.

“The federal Medicaid cuts were passed in July of 2025. Democrats sounded the alarm, but Georgia Republicans did nothing,” Au said. “Under Brian Kemp and the Republican majority, the insurance company they selected to contract with Georgia Medicaid announced cuts to coverage for autistic children months ago. There were warning signs this might happen. Yet Georgia Republicans did nothing.”

Ad blitz

The final stretch of Georgia’s campaign is bringing a flurry of new ads, with Democrats showcasing their united front and both parties sharpening their attacks on their rivals.

Bottoms’ latest campaign ad features Ossoff praising her at their weekend rally in Cobb County.

“Keisha is a mother of four and as our governor she’ll guarantee pre-K for every 4-year-old,” Ossoff says. “She’ll expand Medicaid to save Georgia’s hospitals and nursing homes.”

Republican U.S. Senate nominee Mike Collins goes on the offensive in his new ad, “Stand Up,” which accuses Ossoff of only supporting the Laken Riley Act to help his reelection bid.

“I looked Jon in the eye, he stared right through me and didn’t lift a finger. With his reelection coming, Jon switched his vote,” Collins says in the ad. “That’s not a senator, that’s a coward.”

In March 2024, Ossoff opposed a procedural motion involving an immigration amendment that would have prevented some immigrants accused or convicted of crimes from gaining legal status.

But that wasn’t a vote on the Laken Riley Act itself, which requires federal authorities to detain immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally and accused of certain crimes. Ossoff ultimately joined 11 other Senate Democrats in supporting the Laken Riley Act in January 2025.

And ahead of President Donald Trump’s rally Saturday in Perry, the Democratic Party of Georgia is out with “Trumped,” which stitches together clips of Rick Jackson lavishing praise on the president.

It’s the latest reminder that Democrats are working to remind voters of Jackson’s embrace of the president, even as he has more recently emphasized his independence.

Metro swing

Republican nominee for governor Rick Jackson spent the last week holding events in rural Georgia in a bid to boost flat turnout in deep-red Trump country.

But the largest share of votes for Republicans is still in the population-dense Atlanta suburbs. That’s also where you’ll find the moderate and independent voters the Jackson campaign has been courting since he won the GOP primary runoff in June.

Jackson will make a play for those voters with a bus tour through Alpharetta, Chamblee and Lawrenceville next week, when he’ll again be joined by Gov. Brian Kemp and first lady Marty Kemp.

The governor’s 7-point victory in 2022 was thanks in large part to the same suburban voters who Jackson needs now.

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast, Greg Bluestein and Patricia Murphy break down new AJC poll numbers on the U.S. Senate race, 2028 presidential hopefuls and growing voter opposition to artificial intelligence data centers and surveillance technology.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.