Early voting data sends mixed signals to Georgia Democrats, Republicans

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• USPS intercepts a suspicious letter bound for Raphael Warnock’s office.
• A Texas diner acts as a hub for opposition to Rick Jackson’s data center investment.
• New AJC poll measures Donald Trump’s standing among Georgia voters.

Early vote signals

More than 830,000 Georgians have already cast early ballots, and there’s plenty in the first wave of turnout data to give Democrats reason for optimism.

Black voters, the Democratic Party’s most loyal constituency, account for 35% of the early vote, according to the Georgia Votes tracking site.

Women outnumber men by about 10 percentage points, a good sign for Democrats who often benefit from the gender gap.

And overall turnout is running slightly ahead of the same point in the 2022 midterms.

The geographic breakdown is just as noteworthy. Turnout is lagging in parts of deep-red rural South Georgia while picking up in Democratic-friendly metro Atlanta and its suburbs.

But Republicans can point to surging participation in two of their suburban strongholds, Cherokee and Forsyth counties, where turnout has soared compared with 2022.

Another number worth watching: Roughly 126,000 early voters, about 15% of the total, didn’t cast ballots in the 2022 general election. That’s a significant bloc of voters who sat out the last midterm.

The major catch to keep in mind whenever you see early voting analysis: The data doesn’t tell us whom each voter is supporting. And we can’t tell how much of the surge reflects new enthusiasm rather than voters who would have cast ballots on Nov. 3 anyway.

Things to know

Good morning! The midterms are in 15 days. Early voting runs though Oct. 30. Here are three things to know for today:

• Democrats are feeling optimistic about Tony Kozycki’s chances of defeating Republican U.S. Rep. Rich McCormick. Greg Bluestein reports McCormick might be looking ahead to 2028.
• Former President Barack Obama will headline a rally in Atlanta for Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jon Ossoff later this month, Bluestein reports.
• Conditions at one South Georgia prison have become so dysfunctional that men held there live in virtual darkness because so many cells are without working lights as the facility has experienced a rash of preventable deaths, according to a new review by the Southern Center for Human Rights.

AJC poll

The results are in for the latest AJC poll. We’ll be rolling out the findings this week over at AJC.com.

Up first: President Donald Trump’s approval rating among likely Georgia voters.

The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, found 55% of likely voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, compared with 42% who approve.

As Bluestein wrote, “It’s a sobering assessment of a president who narrowly captured the state in 2024 — and is making a late push for Republicans with another rally scheduled Saturday in Macon.”

We’ll have much more to come, including check-ins on the races for governor and U.S. Senate. Stay tuned.

Sketchy mail

The U.S. Postal Inspection Service intercepted a suspicious envelope bound for U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock’s office, part of a wave of similar mailings across the country weeks before the midterm elections.

A Warnock spokesperson said authorities notified the office that the envelope was identical to others filled with a powdered substance.

Federal authorities are investigating a series of similar mailings to state election officials and congressional offices across the country. Another letter sent to Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s office was also intercepted.

Data center backlash

The Dixie Diner in Texarkana, Texas, has become something of a headquarters for opponents of a multibillion-dollar data center project that GOP nominee for governor Rick Jackson has invested in.

And last week, dozens gathered there after watching a clip of Republican nominee for governor Rick Jackson telling reporters he was “asked to be there by the community” to develop the project.

Bottoms’ campaign for governor seized on the moment, amplifying a video of the crowd delivering an unmistakable message when asked whether they wanted a data center in Bowie County.

“NO!”

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast, Bluestein and Patricia Murphy answer listener questions about Georgia’s ballot measures, Jackson’s ties to Trump and new concerns over the state’s voting machines.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Signed and sealed

Trump last week signed a measure into law that was sponsored by U.S. Rep. Rick Allen, R-Augusta.

The Retire Through Ownership Act creates standards governing the creation of new Employee Stock Ownership Plans, a type of retirement plan that provides benefits in the form of company stocks.

Allen sponsored the House version of the bill. U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., sponsored the Senate version. The House vote on the Senate bill was the final vote taken before members departed for the October recess ahead of the midterms.

Today in Washington

• Trump will speak at a campaign rally in Wichita, Kansas.
• The House and Senate are out until after the midterm elections.