5 things to watch for in Tuesday’s governor’s race debate

Today’s newsletter highlights:

• New York man arrested after alleged threats against Mike Collins and son-in-law.
• Rick Jackson drops Donald Trump reference from key campaign website section.
• White House takes notice of Roswell business owner’s tax-cut support.

Showtime

The first debate between Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson is also likely the last.

The candidates for governor meet tonight at the Atlanta News First studios, their first head-to-head showdown of the general election and also their only chance to directly challenge each other before Election Day.

They’ve spent months trading long-range attacks both over their policies and personalities. Now they’ll have to do it standing a few feet apart.

Here’s what we’re watching:

1. The wild card. The modified town hall format could make this debate unusually unpredictable as Bottoms and Jackson will field questions from an audience of undecided voters.

That makes preparation trickier. Campaigns can anticipate most attacks from an opponent. It’s harder to know what an undecided voter might ask, or how sharply they might ask it, said veteran GOP strategist Cody Hall, a senior adviser to Gov. Brian Kemp.

Hall said even experienced candidates can struggle with the tone of a pointed question.

“If an audience member is aggressive in their questioning,” he said, “sometimes candidates are more likely to be aggressive in their response.”

2. Will Jackson look comfortable on the stage? Jackson has spent more than $130 million introducing himself to Georgia voters, but he remains a first-time candidate with little experience in these political back-and-forths.

His uneven debate performance against Lt. Gov. Burt Jones during the GOP runoff showed some of those growing pains. Tuesday gives him another chance to tell his personal story, make the case against Bottoms and show voters he can handle the pressure that comes with the job.

Hall said the first rule for campaigns heading into a debate is often simple: “Do no harm.”

But in a deadlocked race, Jackson may want more than that.

3. Can Bottoms put Jackson on the defensive? Bottoms enters with a very different résumé. She has spent years handling interviews, news conferences, TV appearances and pointed questions. She’s comfortable under the klieg lights.

And she’s signaling that she plans to use that experience to go on offense.

Her campaign launched a new ad early Tuesday targeting Jackson’s abortion stance, including footage of him saying he would “confirm” a push for a total abortion ban. Jackson has said he supports Georgia’s current abortion law as written.

And she released a new website targeting the billionaire’s business practices.

It’s one of several areas where Bottoms could try to force Jackson away from carefully calibrated answers and force him to defend his own record.

4. Which fight breaks through? There’s no shortage of material. Bottoms has hammered Jackson over healthcare, his business record and ethics questions.

Jackson has attacked Bottoms’ tenure as mayor, public safety in Atlanta and controversies involving City Hall.

And then there’s a sharp divide over data centers that seems certain to surface. Bottoms wants a statewide pause on new projects while officials assess their impact. Jackson opposes a moratorium but backs tougher guardrails and more local control over the projects.

There’s little question those fights will come up. But can either candidate can turn one of those exchanges into the sort of viral moment that outlasts the debate itself?

That matters more than ever. As Hall noted, fewer voters may sit through an entire debate. But savvy campaigns find ways to make sure more will see the clips that follow.

5. How personal will it get? The last time Bottoms and Jackson came face to face, things got tense fast.

Outside an Atlanta hotel in August, Bottoms confronted Jackson over an attack ad that invoked her husband’s travel to the 2018 Super Bowl. “I’m fair game. Please stay away from my family,” she told him. Jackson, apparently caught off guard, replied: “I hear you.”

The next day, Jackson sharpened the attack, accusing Bottoms of trying to shield voters from questions about her record as mayor. Bottoms has accused Jackson of distorting the Super Bowl episode, saying she reimbursed Atlanta after the trip soon after discovering the charge.

That unscripted encounter might as well have been a preview of Tuesday’s tension. Jackson has made Bottoms’ ethics and tenure at City Hall central to his campaign. Bottoms has portrayed him as dishonest and willing to cross personal lines.

Now they’ll be standing face to face for an hour, with undecided voters helping drive the conversation.

Things to know

Good morning! The midterms are in 28 days. Early voting starts one week from today. Here are three things to know for today:

• Defense attorneys and federal prosecutors have asked Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens to fill vacancies in the city’s jail with hundreds of federal pretrial detainees who otherwise will be moved to a distant facility in Irwin County, Reed Williams and Shaddi Abusaid report.
• The vote for Georgia’s next secretary of state is more than a contest to choose the state’s next elections chief. It will also decide who OKs how people will vote in a presidential battleground state for years to come, Caleb Groves reports.
• Devon Horton, former DeKalb County School District superintendent, pleaded guilty to federal charges of wire fraud, embezzlement and tax evasion Monday morning, Jason Armesto reports.

Threat against Collins

The FBI announced Monday that a New York man has been arrested for allegedly threatening U.S. Rep. Mike Collins and his son-in-law, David Alan Scheer II.

The arrest was a joint effort by the FBI’s Buffalo, New York, field office, the Georgia Bureau of Investigation and the Butts County sheriff, who traveled from Georgia to Buffalo last week to take the suspect into custody.

Scheer is an online influencer whose social media posts invoking Hitler and white nationalism have left Collins scrambling to focus his Senate campaign against U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.

In a statement, Collins blamed Ossoff’s campaign rhetoric for inciting violence against him and his family. The senator has consistently referred to Collins as “bigot Congressman Mike Collins” and called news conferences to demand Collins answer for his son-in-law’s social media posts.

“It’s become fashionable for leftist to say anything they want about their Republican opponents to try to irrationally and inaccurately paint them as monsters,” Collins wrote on X. “My opponent clearly likes to play that irresponsible game, and here we are.”

A spokesperson for Ossoff said the senator “condemns all threats of violence.”

The incident only increases the tension between Ossoff and Collins ahead of their first one-on-one debate of the campaign, scheduled for Thursday.

Website watch

Jackson has dropped a reference to President Donald Trump from a key section of his campaign website.

Aaron Parnas first flagged the change after comparing Jackson’s site with an archived version from June. Back then, Jackson’s immigration platform promised he would “work with President Trump to protect Georgians from the consequences of Washington’s failures.”

Now it simply says Jackson will “work to protect Georgians from the consequences of Washington’s failures” with no mention of the president.

It’s not a wholesale Trump purge. The president still appears elsewhere on Jackson’s website, including in his biography. And his Action Plan touts “Trump Accounts” for children.

Still, it’s a notable tweak for a candidate who spent the GOP primary promising to become Trump’s “favorite governor.”

And Trump isn’t the only thing that vanished. Jackson’s previous Action Plan pledged to cut Georgia’s income tax in half within four years and “work to eliminate it within 8.” The current version stops after the four-year promise to cut the tax in half.

A Jackson aide said the website was streamlined to reflect the message he has been airing in campaign ads for months.

The edits are more modest than the overhaul made last month by Florida Republican nominee for governor Byron Donalds, who removed multiple prominent references to Trump.

Roswell focus

A Roswell business owner’s show of support for a small business tax cut contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by Republicans has caught the attention of the White House.

Jenna Aronowitz, owner of the 1920 Tavern, has written an op-ed in the AJC about how provisions making permanent a 20% deduction plus additional language allowing her business to write off the full cost of long-term investments freed up money to pay her workers more and purchase new equipment. In April, she spoke at a news conference in Washington hosted by the conservative advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform.

“I was able to take the money saved and purchase new floors for my restaurant,” she said at the time. “I also was able to get new tabletops and use a local wood crafter allowing him to give work to his workers. They also allow us to hire more staff and also allow me to give my longtime employees a much needed raise.”

Americans for Tax Reform recently republished those quotes, providing a counterpoint to polls showing that voters’ pessimism over the economy is weighing down Trump’s approval numbers.

The White House on Monday put out a news release amplifying the comments from Aronowitz and other small business owners speaking favorably about his signature tax cut legislation, which also reduced spending on Medicaid and food stamps.

The release was titled “President Trump’s Tax Cuts Are Helping ‘Reinvigorate the American Dream for Small Businesses,’” a direct reference to Aronowitz’s remarks.

Listen up

Today on the “Politically Georgia” podcast Cody Hall, Gov. Brian Kemp’s adviser, joins the show to talk about what Jackson and Collins need from this week’s debates, the threat of the GOP’s down-ballot majorities and how Kemp is navigating an election without being on the ballot.

You can listen and subscribe to “Politically Georgia” for free on Apple Podcasts, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

Have a question or comment for the show? Email us at politicallygeorgia@ajc.com or give us a call at 770-810-5297 and you could be featured on a future episode.

Stumping for Ossoff

A Congressman from Colorado traveled to Georgia on Monday to campaign alongside Ossoff.

U.S. Rep. Rep. Jason Crow — who, like Ossoff, is considered one of the Democratic Party’s rising stars — helped register voters at Georgia State University before meeting with Ossoff campaign volunteers before they knocked on doors in Atlanta.