Senate poll: Ossoff riding high in Georgia; MAGA firebrand leads GOP field
Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Collins holds an early advantage in the GOP race for Senate with a 10-point lead over his nearest rival. But with nearly 40% of the likely Republican voters undecided, the contest is far from settled.
That’s according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely Republican primary voters that offers the clearest snapshot yet of the unpredictable race to take on Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.
Collins leads with 30% support, followed by U.S. Rep. Buddy Carter at 20% and former football coach Derek Dooley at 12%. The poll of 1,000 likely Republican voters was conducted Oct. 15-23 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Collins’ early edge comes despite pressure from Gov. Brian Kemp and his allies. Kemp has thrown his political network behind Dooley, betting his outsider’s pitch is the best way to consolidate GOP support and win next year.
Whoever emerges will face a formidable opponent. Ossoff will be the only Senate Democratic incumbent on the ballot next year in a state President Donald Trump carried, but he also begins the race with solid support and more than $21 million on hand.
The poll underscores that dynamic. About 80% of likely Democratic primary voters approve of Ossoff’s performance, while only 10% do not. More strikingly, roughly one-fifth of GOP voters say they strongly or somewhat approve of how he’s handling his job.
“Ossoff’s going to be tough to beat,” said Allen Bone, a retired executive in Columbus who has yet to make up his mind in the Senate race. “And he’s had a running head start.”
The poll shows Collins leading among both moderates and conservatives, Carter performing better with minority Republican voters, and Dooley strongest among independents.
But the largest bloc by far is the undecided: 38% of likely GOP primary voters say they haven’t made up their minds — including more than one-third of conservatives and older voters who form the backbone of the GOP electorate.
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PDF: Poll crosstabs
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Endorsement chase
The findings also illustrate how Kemp’s effort to unite Republicans behind a single candidate has veered off course.
Carter and Collins both rejected calls to clear the field and built their own campaign machines without Kemp’s blessing. Now they and Dooley are jockeying to impress Trump, who recently said he hasn’t chosen a favorite among the “very good people” in the race.
“I haven’t made a decision yet,” Trump told reporters earlier this month. “But I’m following that race very carefully. I think it’s very important for Georgia to get a real senator, because the senator they have now is a horrible senator.”
There’s little chance now of Republicans avoiding a drawn-out fight. Carter has already spent more than $3 million on his campaign, and Kemp’s political machine is ramping up its efforts for Dooley.
Even Trump’s blessing may not end it. About 36% of likely Republican primary voters say Trump’s endorsement makes it more likely they’ll vote for that candidate, and 10% say it makes them less likely. But for the majority — 53% — Trump’s support makes no difference at all.
That won’t stop the trio from courting the president. Dooley met privately with Trump in August, and both Carter and Collins have raced to frame themselves as the most MAGA candidate in the race.
As for Kemp, about 31% of likely Republican primary voters say his support makes them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 7% say it would dissuade them. About 62% say it has no influence on their decision.
“That endorsement crap doesn’t matter,” said Ted Stone, a Dublin telecom executive. “You can tell me the sky is purple. I know it’s blue. I do my own research.”
Stone is still up in the air on the three-way GOP contest, though he said he’s leaning toward Collins.
“Anyone but Ossoff. He’s way too liberal,” he said. “I like Collins. I might change my mind, but at least I’m familiar with him.”
Even as they compete for the GOP crown, the rivals are ratcheting up criticism of one another. Collins and Dooley have clashed so fiercely over their loyalty to Trump and fundraising prowess that it drew a ceasefire plea from Georgia GOP Chair Josh McKoon.
“We do not need to spend the next six months tearing each other apart,” he told the “John Fredericks Show.”
“The focus needs to be on why Jon Ossoff needs to go,” he said. “We need to do everything we can to stop spending money attacking Republicans because it will make what is a difficult task even more difficult next November.”
About the Author
Greg Bluestein is the Atlanta Journal Constitution's chief political reporter. He is also an author, TV analyst and co-host of the Politically Georgia podcast.
