Unsure about the economy? So are these top Georgia CEOs

Like consumers unsure what tariffs will mean for prices on store shelves, the leaders of some of Georgia’s largest companies are also having a hard time predicting how they will perform this year because of the uncertainty.

Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines, children’s apparel retailer Carter’s, shipping giant UPS and Rubbermaid maker Newell Brands have each backpedaled on previous forecasts or told investors they are refraining from giving guidance on their expectations for this year.

President Donald Trump’s trade war has caused consumer confidence to fall. Business sentiment has also suffered with executives unsure what lies ahead.

Amid the uncertainty, companies and investors are watching for every sign of where the economy is headed. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% on an annualized basis in the first quarter as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs and consumer spending softened.

The federal jobs report Friday said U.S. companies added 177,000 jobs in April, down slightly from a revised 185,000 in March. But economists had expected worse, forecasting that only 135,000 jobs would be added in April. The latest figures kept the unemployment rate at 4.2%.

Sandy Springs-based UPS would not confirm its prior annual financial projections “given the current macroeconomic uncertainty” facing its customers.

“The world hasn’t been faced with such enormous potential impacts to trade in more than 100 years, so the only thing we’re certain of, is we don’t know which, if any, of our scenarios will play out,” CEO Carol Tomé told investors April 29. Still, she said the company is well-positioned to “manage through” the situation.

UPS serves consumers and also businesses small and large, making the company a bellwether of the global economy and giving it unique insights into economic sentiment.

Tomé said that in February and March, “uncertainties surrounding global trade policies and other matters led to a drop in consumer confidence and muted demand” from some businesses.

“In the U.S., we’ve talked with our top 100 customers to understand how their business is being impacted, both directly and indirectly by changes in trade policy,” Tomé said. Those customers are exploring how to address the tariffs, from absorbing the cost to increasing retail prices to asking suppliers to help defray the expense, she said. “At this point, it remains an open question as to what path they will choose and what the potential impact could be on consumer demand and our business.”

Globally, the vast majority of UPS customers that are shipping small packages said they plan to maintain their business models. But some companies are considering making shifts in trade or shifting from air freight to ocean freight, or even exiting a business, Tomé said.

Many of the small and medium-sized businesses that are UPS customers “are 100% single-sourced from China, and this is causing so much uncertainty in the marketplace” because of the latest 145% tariff on most China goods taking effect Friday, she said. That new tariff comes with the end of a duty-free exemption for small packages from China worth less than $800, which could make purchases from e-commerce giants such as Shein and Temu much more expensive.

When it comes to the outlook for the future, “given the uncertainty in the market, there is a wide range of possible outcomes,” Tomé said.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released this week showed souring consumer sentiment. As Trump took office in January, 56% of Georgia voters expected the U.S. economy to improve in his first year in office. Now, that figure sits at just 43%, the AJC poll showed.