What to watch for in the Virginia governor's race debate between Spanberger and Earle-Sears

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger are slated to debate their competing visions for Virginia on Thursday in the state's gubernatorial race. And each woman arguably has the same goal: to blame her opponent for backing the chaos in Washington.

Virginia is one of two states choosing governors this November, and its election is often seen as a bellwether for the party in power across the Potomac River ahead of midterm elections next year.

Washington politics are especially relevant this year in Virginia, as President Donald Trump’s cuts to the federal workforce and Congress’ current government shutdown have an outsize impact in a state filled with federal employees and military personnel.

Thursday will be Spanberger and Earle-Sears’ first face-to-face debate after months of criticizing each other from afar.

Virginia has elected leaders from both parties in recent years. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin beat former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in the governor's race. State Democrats narrowly regained complete control of the legislature in the 2023 election.

Here’s what to watch for during the debate at Norfolk State University:

A race in Trump's shadow

Trump is not on the Virginia ballot next month. But the Republican president is expected to play a central role in the debate.

Spanberger often mentions Trump and Earle-Sears in the same breath. Just last week, Spanberger's campaign put out a news release arguing Earle-Sears doesn't “take the economic consequences of Trump’s firings on Virginia seriously.”

Earle-Sears and other Republicans, however, tend to do-si-do around Trump's name. They want to reap the benefits of his popularity among Republicans without invoking the ire of Virginians who dislike him.

Earle-Sears has spoken favorably of the president and invited him to the state to campaign on her behalf. She also has refused to condemn his cuts to the federal workforce earlier this year. Given the opportunity, she declined in a televised interview to tell Trump not to fire any more as part of the shutdown.

Trump has not directly endorsed Earle-Sears in the race. Although he visited Virginia twice last week, he ignored the Republican candidate for governor.

The shutdown

The showdown over the shutdown is likely to continue into and beyond Thursday night.

It's been nine days since Congress failed to pass a funding extension, and Democrats and Republicans are casting blame on their rivals — even in a state-level race.

On Thursday, Spanberger will have the opportunity to paint Earle-Sears as a candidate unable to push back against Trump. Already, the Democrat has pointed out that the Republican president's threats of imposing mass firings would distinctly impact Virginia, where at least about 315,000 federal workers reside.

Earle-Sears likely will look to tie her Democratic opponent to the federal shutdown after Congress failed to fund the government. Democrats, who have consistently voted against a short-term spending measure, have said they will only vote in support if Congress extends health care subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.

Earle-Sears has repeatedly publicly demanded that her opponent tell Virginia Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, both Democrats, to vote in favor of the spending bill.

Culture wars vs. wallets

One key to the debate will be what the candidates hope to be talking about.

Earle-Sears wants to keep transgender youths out of high school sports and bathrooms. Spanberger would rather talk about keeping Virginia affordable.

Earle-Sears has campaigned heavily for stronger laws involving transgender girls in Virginia's public educational systems, flooding the airwaves with ads focused on the cultural divide that helped Trump win the presidency last fall.

Spanberger has mainly led with kitchen table issues — jobs, the cost of living, health care prices.

Each candidate has addressed her opponent's cause with some hesitancy. Earle-Sears has said maintaining the Youngkin administration's business successes is vital to her, though she does not criticize Trump's role in cutting jobs across the state.

Spanberger has said she supports all children, but she stopped short of highlighting her support for trans kids specifically.

Questions each candidate could field

Both candidates could be called upon to defend themselves against criticism that has surfaced during the race.

Earle-Sears’ campaign has had to field questions after Youngkin unsuccessfully asked Republican John Reid to drop out of the lieutenant governor’s race in connection to a social media account with explicit photos.

But Reid isn’t the only candidate the Republican governor has called on to exit the race. Last week, The National Review published a report revealing that Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for attorney general, in 2022 sent text messages suggesting the former Republican House speaker get “two bullets to the head.”

Republicans across the U.S., including Trump and Earle-Sears, demanded that Jones drop out for his use of such violent rhetoric. Spanberger condemned the text messages but has stopped short of asking for his departure despite growing pressure to do so. Jones has apologized.

The debate comes as threats of political violence have escalated across the country following the shooting deaths of conservative activist Charlie Kirk and former Minnesota Democratic House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband.