The Falcons are well-positioned to close the season strong, win the NFC South and then, the heck with it, let's see what happens from there. I believe that because of the team's play so far, but also because after handling the tough front end of the schedule pretty well, the Falcons now get relief on the back end.
According to the invaluable Football Outsiders, the average DVOA of the remaining Falcons opponents ranks 10th-lowest in the NFL. The metric doesn't take into account the location of the remaining games, but if it did, it likely would only improve the picture for the Falcons: They play four of their last six regular-season games at home, with the toughest opponent (No. 13 Chiefs) at the Dome and the toughest road test at No. 22 Carolina.
Among the three NFC teams ahead of the Falcons, only the Seahawks have an easier slate of opponents left: fifth-lowest average DVOA in the NFL. But Seattle has three road games left, and the Cowboys (10th-highest opponent DVOA) and Lions (12th-highest) have some potentially tough games ahead. (I still think the Lions are more lucky than good.)
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The Falcons went 6-4 against opponents with an average DVOA that ranks third-highest in the league. They won at the Raiders and Broncos and had a chance at the Seahawks. The Falcons need to finish games consistently, but it's not as if they've proved nothing. That's why I kind of like it that they are eschewing one-game-at-a-time cliches and openly talking about making a run .
I'm betting the offensive sputter in Philly was a blip. That Eagles D is legit. Plus, Tevin Coleman's pending return will help the Falcons run the ball in the red zone — their inability to do so with Devonta Freeman has been a problem.
The defense? There's been no Dan Quinn Year 2 bump like I expected after a big jump in Year 1 —the Falcons so far are worse on defense this season than last. How much of that is because of growing pains (especially early) and injuries (especially lately)? I don't know. I do see signs of a consistent pass rush and that's no small thing.
If none of that is persuasive, then consider the schedule. The Falcons could play only as well as they have so far and that will be enough to win the division over the Bucs who, by the way, face opponents with the fifth-highest average DVOA. Watch the Bucs fade as the Falcons finish.
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