Before the 2016 season, FanGraphs predicted the Braves would win 67 games after they'd won 67 in 2015. It turned out that the Braves won 68 games but that was more coincidence than prescience: Trades and call-ups altered the Braves' roster so drastically during the year that preseason predictions pretty much were moot.
The Braves figure to have a more stable roster in 2017, so projections about them now figure to still be salient at the end of the season. With that in mind, the latest FanGraphs prognostication (which factors in the potentially season-ending injury to starter Sean Rodriguez) has the Braves finishing 73-89, just ahead of the last-place Phillies in the NL East and the sixth-worst record in the majors.
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According to the projection, the Braves will score 667 runs this year after they scored 649 last season and give up 740 vs. 779. That would be a run differential of 73 in 2017 compared to 130 in 2016. That would be significant improvement.
As the runs scored and allowed projections indicate, FanGraphs expects most of the improvement for the Braves to come from better pitching. It assumes that six pitchers will handle the bulk of starters’ innings (in order): Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia and Mat Wisler.
FanGraphs predicts that the top five pitchers will be significantly better than replacement-level, adding up to 9.2 Wins Above Replacement. Contrast that with 2016, when FanGraphs predicted that the Braves would have the worst starting pitcher in the majors with Teheran and since-departed Bud Norris as the only starters to be significantly better than replacement-level. (That turned out to be pretty spot-on, and the Braves traded Norris while he had value).
As for Braves hitters, FanGraphs predicts that nearly all of the veteran holdovers will come back down to earth at the plate in 2017 after better-than-projected seasons in 2016: catcher Tyler Flowers, first baseman Freedie Freeman, third baseman Adonis Garcia, left fielder Matt Kemp and center fielder Ender Inciarte. Accoring to FanGraphs, incumbent right fielder Nick Markakis will be about the same, shortstop Dansby Swanson (still technically a rookie) will have a very good year and new addition Brandon Phillips will drop-off.
Add it all up and FanGraphs predicts Braves hitters will produce the third-lowest WAR in the majors behind the White Sox and Brewers. It projects the pitchers (including the bullpen) will produce the fourth-lowest WAR behind the Reds, Padres and Marlins.
Mix it all together and the Braves will win 73 games, according to FanGraphs. That would be better than 2016 but still not good, which sounds like a pretty fair assessment of state of the Braves’ rebuild.
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