Does Dansby Swanson have a big problem vs. sliders?
Writing recently at Tomahawktake.com , Stephen Tolbert declared: "Dansby Swanson has a slider problem." He used Statcast data to show that Swanson is struggling to hit sliders and opponents have started throwing them to him more often.
Asked about Swanson vs. sliders, Braves hitting coach Brian Seitzer said:"I wouldn't say the sliders over anything else have been giving him a hard time." He went on to explain how he believes Swanson is pressing because he's not getting results.
Swanson also said he doesn’t give more thought to sliders over any other pitch.
“Thanks for bringing that to my attention, I guess?” Swanson said. “I don’t look at it that
| Pitch types | No. | Results on balls in play | Avg. exit velocity | Swings | Swing and miss % | Called strike % | Foul % | Ball % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All fastballs | 524 | 39-for-103 | 90.4 | 267 | 19.9 | 18.7 | 40.1 | 29.0 |
| Sliders | 220 | 2-for-21 | 81.5 | 83 | 38.6 | 21.8 | 36.1 | 36.8 |
| All other break | 125 | 8-for-15 | 87.4 | 45 | 33.3 | 22.4 | 31.1 | 37.6 |
Sources: MLB statcast data, Baseball Reference.
The numbers don’t look good for Swanson vs. sliders. But, when put in context, there are some mitigating factors.
No. 1 is the small sample size. Swanson just doesn’t have enough plate appearances (219) yet to judge his hitting ability overall, much less his ability to hit sliders. Break the sample down smaller still—in this case, the 220 sliders Swanson has seen as a big leaguer—and there’s even more noise.
Swanson isn't producing against sliders but he's hitting the ball harder overall this season with a similar rate of line drives (28 percent vs. 30 in 2016). He's had some legitimately bad luck on hard-hit balls after he experienced good luck with balls in play in 2016. Swanson also is swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone this season, according to Pitch f/x data.
Another way to look at this: It's a good sign that Swanson is doing well hitting fastballs and (reasonably) well against off-speed pitches that aren't sliders. If he gets better against sliders and experiences better luck on batted balls overall, eventually his results should improve.
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It's true that Swanson's strikeout percentage is still high and he's walking a lot less than in 2016. But that's to be expected for a young player. In Seitzer's view a tight strike zone by umpires for Swanson, which he says is typical for younger hitters, hasn't helped.
Finally, sliders in particular are difficult pitches to hit. Here's what Ted Williams said about them in "The Science of Hitting," a 1970 book he wrote with John Underwood:
“The slider is probably as good a pitch as there is in baseball. All hitters have trouble with the slider; (Willie) Mays says it’s the toughest, (Hank) Aaron says it’s the toughest. I say it’s the greatest pitch in baseball. It’s easy to learn. It’s easy to control. Immediately, it gives a pitcher a third or fourth pitch for his repertoire.”
I get why some Braves fans are antsy about Swanson’s early offensive struggles. They (and the Braves) have a lot invested in Swanson’s success. They may understand they need to wait and see on Swanson and make note of those hard-hit balls that go for naught. But, meanwhile, they see that Swanson's not producing now.
Yet there are legitimate reasons for Braves backers (and the Braves) to be patient with Swanson. It's early. Let's see if he can figure things out.
“He’s a baseball player,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said recently. “He will adjust and adapt.”
Carleton provides this context in his blog post. He notes that it’s typical for young hitters to need time and, regarding Swanson’s struggles vs sliders, he concludes: “They’re not the best numbers right now but he’s got an entire career to improve them. My guess is he’ll adjust. And then they’ll adjust. And then he’ll adjust again and on and on and on.”
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