Game effort in the end by the Buccaneers at Dallas but turnovers and ill-timed penalty by Jameis Winston cost them in a 26-20 loss. That means the Falcons (9-5) are one game in front of the Bucs (8-6) in the NFC South but, in practical terms, the Falcons are in the same position as before Tampa Bay's loss: they need to win their final two games to be assured of a playoff berth.
The Falcons and Bucs each play the Panthers and Saints over the final two weeks. If the Bucs win both their games and the Falcons lose one, leaving both teams at 10-6 , then the Bucs would win the NFC South by virtue of the second tiebreaker, division record (5-1 vs. 4-2). The Falcons and Bucs split the head-to-head meetings, which is the first tiebreaker.
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As for the wild-card race, in case it comes to that for the Falcons . . . .
The Cowboys (12-2) or Giants (10-4) will take one of the NFC wild cards. The Bears could have helped the Falcons by finishing off the Packers (8-6) on Sunday but they blew it in the final minute. The Colts did help the Falcons by beating the Vikings (7-7). The Panthers could help the Falcons by winning at Washington (7-5-1) on Monday night.
The Falcons don’t need to worry about any wild-card scenarios if they beat the Panthers on Saturday in Carolina and the Saints the next weekend at the Dome. Stumble once and it could get tricky for the Falcons. Stumble twice and, well, they wouldn’t deserve much anyway.
The Julio-less Falcons beat down another over-matched opponent on Sunday. And I'll say it again: I never discount blowout Ws in the NFL. I also still say the Falcons win out but, man, those injuries sure are piling up on defense.
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