Maxwell week nine playoff projections
Below are the current Maxwell Ratings' playoff projections for each class.
The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2014 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 seasons and teams with 100 or more championship wins in the simulation are shown.
While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.
All out of state opponents were considered equal to the average of the GHSA team’s classification (i.e., out of state opponents of Class AAAAAA GHSA teams were treated as an average Class AAAAAA team).
Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by using recursive head-to-head records with all ties being broken randomly.
Class AAAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colquitt County | 1-AAAAAA | 108.45 | 852,916 | 784,546 | 0.27 |
| Grayson | 8-AAAAAA | 88.97 | 255,170 | 55,623 | 16.98 |
| McEachern | 4-AAAAAA | 83.58 | 169,478 | 29,930 | 32.41 |
| Lee County | 1-AAAAAA | 84.57 | 157,135 | 25,131 | 38.79 |
| North Gwinnett | 7-AAAAAA | 84.12 | 61,791 | 19,960 | 49.10 |
| Milton | 5-AAAAAA | 82.40 | 82,242 | 18,645 | 52.63 |
| Norcross | 7-AAAAAA | 83.25 | 120,309 | 18,149 | 54.10 |
| Valdosta | 1-AAAAAA | 81.02 | 64,557 | 9,076 | 109.18 |
| Dacula | 8-AAAAAA | 81.73 | 33,618 | 7,784 | 127.47 |
| Lowndes | 1-AAAAAA | 82.01 | 37,828 | 7,497 | 132.39 |
| Tucker | 2-AAAAAA | 80.16 | 22,446 | 5,993 | 165.86 |
| Hughes | 3-AAAAAA | 77.24 | 51,570 | 5,394 | 184.39 |
| Hillgrove | 4-AAAAAA | 76.33 | 34,671 | 5,367 | 185.32 |
| Archer | 8-AAAAAA | 76.10 | 6,252 | 1,392 | 717.39 |
| Alpharetta | 6-AAAAAA | 73.11 | 6,130 | 1,355 | 737.01 |
| Roswell | 5-AAAAAA | 70.28 | 9,488 | 821 | 1,217.03 |
| North Cobb | 4-AAAAAA | 72.08 | 4,258 | 646 | 1,546.99 |
| Lovejoy | 2-AAAAAA | 73.41 | 6,965 | 636 | 1,571.33 |
| Peachtree Ridge | 7-AAAAAA | 74.99 | 4,109 | 488 | 2,048.18 |
| Mill Creek | 7-AAAAAA | 74.24 | 3,359 | 429 | 2,330.00 |
| Tift County | 1-AAAAAA | 74.47 | 1,349 | 290 | 3,447.28 |
| Etowah | 5-AAAAAA | 68.43 | 4,298 | 225 | 4,443.44 |
| Collins Hill | 7-AAAAAA | 72.38 | 1,969 | 187 | 5,346.59 |
| Central Gwinnett | 8-AAAAAA | 70.23 | 2,815 | 154 | 6,492.51 |
| Westlake | 3-AAAAAA | 66.52 | 2,294 | 139 | 7,193.24 |
Class AAAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allatoona | 5-AAAAA | 82.99 | 512,673 | 395,293 | 1.53 |
| Ware County | 3-AAAAA | 76.32 | 385,387 | 200,431 | 3.99 |
| Northside (Warner Robins) | 2-AAAAA | 69.00 | 141,604 | 62,430 | 15.02 |
| South Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 70.62 | 121,631 | 48,591 | 19.58 |
| Dalton | 7-AAAAA | 67.84 | 107,967 | 39,655 | 24.22 |
| Coffee | 3-AAAAA | 69.49 | 78,896 | 37,522 | 25.65 |
| Lanier | 8-AAAAA | 67.10 | 108,051 | 35,357 | 27.28 |
| Gainesville | 8-AAAAA | 67.34 | 75,175 | 31,139 | 31.11 |
| Creekside | 6-AAAAA | 70.44 | 62,597 | 29,100 | 33.36 |
| Drew | 4-AAAAA | 64.72 | 60,276 | 17,769 | 55.28 |
| Alexander | 5-AAAAA | 66.25 | 46,658 | 15,665 | 62.84 |
| Houston County | 2-AAAAA | 64.05 | 52,932 | 15,658 | 62.87 |
| Mays | 6-AAAAA | 68.29 | 39,188 | 15,267 | 64.50 |
| Carver (Columbus) | 1-AAAAA | 65.05 | 42,518 | 14,184 | 69.50 |
| Kell | 7-AAAAA | 63.67 | 40,927 | 11,870 | 83.25 |
| New Manchester | 5-AAAAA | 63.39 | 18,087 | 5,383 | 184.77 |
| East Paulding | 5-AAAAA | 63.83 | 16,669 | 5,053 | 196.90 |
| Stephenson | 6-AAAAA | 62.16 | 19,340 | 5,023 | 198.08 |
| Harris County | 1-AAAAA | 61.18 | 18,443 | 4,537 | 219.41 |
| Carver (Atlanta) | 6-AAAAA | 61.26 | 14,403 | 3,748 | 265.81 |
| Lakeside (Evans) | 2-AAAAA | 57.80 | 9,407 | 1,703 | 586.20 |
| Sprayberry | 7-AAAAA | 56.85 | 6,613 | 1,188 | 840.75 |
| Stockbridge | 4-AAAAA | 56.69 | 5,050 | 957 | 1,043.93 |
| Glynn Academy | 3-AAAAA | 55.72 | 4,125 | 797 | 1,253.71 |
| Warner Robins | 2-AAAAA | 56.39 | 2,703 | 469 | 2,131.20 |
| Brunswick | 3-AAAAA | 54.42 | 2,653 | 330 | 3,029.30 |
| Jones County | 2-AAAAA | 55.53 | 1,771 | 302 | 3,310.26 |
| Hiram | 5-AAAAA | 58.88 | 833 | 171 | 5,846.95 |
| Salem | 8-AAAAA | 51.31 | 989 | 130 | 7,691.31 |
| Southwest DeKalb | 6-AAAAA | 54.26 | 908 | 123 | 8,129.08 |
Class AAAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buford | 8-AAAA | 92.79 | 782,364 | 673,382 | 0.49 |
| Sandy Creek | 5-AAAA | 80.18 | 516,275 | 185,186 | 4.40 |
| Griffin | 4-AAAA | 73.31 | 77,279 | 32,367 | 29.90 |
| Cairo | 1-AAAA | 70.37 | 171,269 | 30,151 | 32.17 |
| Cartersville | 7-AAAA | 70.48 | 70,002 | 27,471 | 35.40 |
| Woodward Academy | 5-AAAA | 68.28 | 103,086 | 19,098 | 51.36 |
| St. Pius X | 6-AAAA | 65.29 | 139,148 | 16,245 | 60.56 |
| Mary Persons | 2-AAAA | 64.58 | 76,966 | 8,708 | 113.84 |
| Marist | 6-AAAA | 67.24 | 13,105 | 4,238 | 234.96 |
| North Oconee | 8-AAAA | 56.14 | 11,776 | 664 | 1,505.02 |
| Thomas County Central | 1-AAAA | 60.99 | 3,396 | 499 | 2,003.01 |
| West Laurens | 2-AAAA | 55.80 | 6,287 | 417 | 2,397.08 |
| Worth County | 1-AAAA | 55.07 | 3,798 | 275 | 3,635.36 |
| Columbia | 6-AAAA | 57.49 | 1,715 | 272 | 3,675.47 |
| Gilmer | 7-AAAA | 52.89 | 6,493 | 252 | 3,967.25 |
| Burke County | 3-AAAA | 54.11 | 2,610 | 231 | 4,328.00 |
| Troup | 5-AAAA | 57.05 | 3,281 | 201 | 4,974.12 |
Class AAA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington County | 3-AAA | 80.43 | 522,464 | 359,581 | 1.78 |
| Calhoun | 6-AAA | 76.87 | 498,046 | 239,843 | 3.17 |
| Blessed Trinity | 4-AAA | 77.38 | 312,231 | 191,199 | 4.23 |
| Jefferson | 8-AAA | 72.01 | 164,846 | 71,701 | 12.95 |
| Peach County | 2-AAA | 70.57 | 158,839 | 56,955 | 16.56 |
| Westside (Macon) | 2-AAA | 68.48 | 103,886 | 33,161 | 29.16 |
| Hart County | 8-AAA | 63.11 | 93,198 | 19,092 | 51.38 |
| Central (Carrollton) | 5-AAA | 61.44 | 78,028 | 14,111 | 69.87 |
| Westminster (Atlanta) | 4-AAA | 64.97 | 35,726 | 10,871 | 90.99 |
| Cedar Grove | 4-AAA | 55.87 | 8,998 | 1,099 | 908.92 |
| Adairsville | 6-AAA | 56.71 | 4,963 | 868 | 1,151.07 |
| Elbert County | 8-AAA | 53.47 | 5,166 | 562 | 1,778.36 |
| Dodge County | 1-AAA | 50.21 | 3,797 | 312 | 3,204.13 |
| Cook | 1-AAA | 49.32 | 4,146 | 273 | 3,662.00 |
| Callaway | 5-AAA | 46.13 | 1,535 | 103 | 9,707.74 |
Class AA
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vidalia | 2-AA | 67.14 | 412,067 | 264,481 | 2.78 |
| Fitzgerald | 1-AA | 63.67 | 447,165 | 224,297 | 3.46 |
| Greater Atlanta Christian | 6-AA | 65.95 | 348,932 | 214,101 | 3.67 |
| Thomasville | 1-AA | 59.04 | 264,473 | 115,315 | 7.67 |
| Lovett | 6-AA | 60.81 | 227,987 | 97,401 | 9.27 |
| Benedictine | 2-AA | 58.46 | 122,622 | 45,244 | 21.10 |
| Brooks County | 1-AA | 55.26 | 65,573 | 19,862 | 49.35 |
| Lamar County | 4-AA | 51.64 | 29,890 | 7,392 | 134.28 |
| Macon County | 4-AA | 49.62 | 18,005 | 3,944 | 252.55 |
| Screven County | 3-AA | 44.66 | 25,385 | 3,472 | 287.02 |
| Bowdon | 5-AA | 44.65 | 14,400 | 2,278 | 437.98 |
| Darlington | 7-AA | 41.54 | 6,438 | 727 | 1,374.52 |
| Jefferson County | 3-AA | 39.68 | 3,196 | 341 | 2,931.55 |
| Bleckley County | 4-AA | 39.99 | 2,492 | 252 | 3,967.25 |
| Rabun County | 8-AA | 38.77 | 2,533 | 235 | 4,254.32 |
| Berrien | 1-AA | 41.91 | 1,500 | 194 | 5,153.64 |
Class A-Public
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion County | 4-A | 54.21 | 561,110 | 331,553 | 2.02 |
| Irwin County | 2-A | 54.50 | 547,838 | 330,238 | 2.03 |
| Hawkinsville | 4-A | 51.93 | 374,456 | 197,492 | 4.06 |
| Charlton County | 2-A | 46.71 | 185,657 | 72,920 | 12.71 |
| Clinch County | 2-A | 40.68 | 75,483 | 20,264 | 48.35 |
| Emanuel County Institute | 3-A | 39.09 | 81,861 | 19,484 | 50.32 |
| Dooly County | 4-A | 38.32 | 45,190 | 10,343 | 95.68 |
| Greenville | 4-A | 36.35 | 33,617 | 6,584 | 150.88 |
| Claxton | 3-A | 32.00 | 20,689 | 2,848 | 350.12 |
| Calhoun County | 1-A | 29.65 | 18,132 | 1,980 | 504.05 |
| Wilcox County | 2-A | 33.08 | 9,935 | 1,495 | 667.90 |
| Telfair County | 2-A | 30.29 | 11,154 | 1,297 | 770.01 |
| Schley County | 4-A | 29.88 | 8,164 | 963 | 1,037.42 |
| Mount Zion (Carroll) | 6-A | 29.06 | 8,879 | 922 | 1,083.60 |
| Commerce | 8-A | 26.87 | 9,145 | 769 | 1,299.39 |
| Lincoln County | 7-A | 30.51 | 3,606 | 422 | 2,368.67 |
| Atkinson County | 2-A | 26.67 | 4,003 | 361 | 2,769.08 |
Class A-Private
Modal Bracket
Although any specific bracket is highly unlikely, the modal bracket represents the most probable of all the possible brackets.
Playoff Projections by Team
Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.
| Team | Region | Rating | Finals | Champion | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Paran Christian | 6-A | 51.51 | 490,712 | 339,851 | 1.94 |
| Aquinas | 7-A | 46.91 | 345,708 | 183,704 | 4.44 |
| Tattnall Square | 7-A | 45.35 | 247,331 | 120,623 | 7.29 |
| Landmark Christian | 5-A | 44.88 | 240,994 | 117,265 | 7.53 |
| Calvary Day | 3-A | 43.71 | 231,195 | 100,450 | 8.96 |
| Pacelli | 4-A | 40.93 | 102,791 | 39,653 | 24.22 |
| Savannah Christian | 3-A | 40.71 | 101,697 | 37,721 | 25.51 |
| Mount Pisgah Christian | 6-A | 38.28 | 84,297 | 25,967 | 37.51 |
| Our Lady of Mercy | 5-A | 33.31 | 28,066 | 6,183 | 160.73 |
| Eagle's Landing Christian | 5-A | 36.39 | 21,373 | 6,034 | 164.73 |
| Brookstone | 4-A | 35.16 | 21,964 | 5,660 | 175.68 |
| Pinecrest Academy | 6-A | 32.94 | 25,677 | 5,535 | 179.67 |
| Stratford Academy | 7-A | 34.96 | 20,800 | 5,357 | 185.67 |
| First Presbyterian | 7-A | 31.70 | 11,489 | 2,298 | 434.16 |
| Prince Avenue Christian | 8-A | 28.86 | 13,758 | 2,092 | 477.01 |
| Athens Christian | 8-A | 26.09 | 6,761 | 828 | 1,206.73 |
| St. Francis | 6-A | 27.98 | 5,118 | 759 | 1,316.52 |
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