Sports

Maxwell Round 1 Summary: Newton throws cold water on Region 1-AAAAAA

By Todd Holcomb
Nov 18, 2014

The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results after Round 1:

- To the delight of North Georgia fans everywhere, Region 1-AAAAAA finally lost a game this past Friday as Tucker downed Tift County 31-29 in a back and forth battle at Hallford Stadium. Meanwhile, Lee County defended Region 1-AAAAAA against Lovejoy by an unexpected 44-6 margin and Colquitt County demolished Rockdale County 62-12 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score would indicate. However, in perhaps the biggest surprise in a weekend full of upsets, Newton shocked Valdosta with a 27-14 victory for their first playoff win in nearly three decades. The result was a drop in the ratings of all Region 1-AAAAAA teams in spite of the impressive Lee County and Colquitt County victories while Region 2-AAAAAA received a nice boost. In fact, Colquitt, in contention for one of the highest ratings ever according to Maxwell, was downgraded by roughly a field goal in spite of putting a running clock on Rockdale in the first quarter.

- The playoffs, where many relatively isolated regions are more firmly connected to the rest of the state, are traditionally a time of turbulence in the ratings. Region 1-AAA gained the most, with their competitive rating jumping 9.39 points after a 4-0 sweep of Region 2-AAA, including an Appling County upset of last week's highest rated Class AAA team, Peach County. Conversely Region 2-AAA's competitive rating fell 9.96 points, the largest drop after the weekend.

- The shuffle in the ratings naturally spills over to the highest rated matchups as well. Not only are great pairings being added each week as the playoffs advance, but some others are being reevaluated in light of results results. Last week, ten of the top 15 matchups, including the top seven, were all Region 1-AAAAAA games. This week, only four of the top 15 are.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.12%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,924 of 2,136 total games including 4 ties (90.17%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.73 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.

Home Advantage: 0.78

By Class

AAAAAA AAAAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Colquitt County 11-0 105.83 1 Allatoona 11-0 82.06
2 Grayson 10-1 88.06 2 Ware County 11-0 80.52
3 Lee County 8-2 85.22 3 Mays 9-2 72.71
4 Dacula 10-1 84.65 4 Creekside 9-2 72.25
5 Tucker 9-2 83.61 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 10-1 72.16
6 Archer 8-3 82.05 6 Coffee 10-1 71.97
7 Valdosta 9-2 80.40 7 Kell 11-0 67.66
8 Mill Creek 7-4 80.27 8 Houston County 9-2 67.48
9 Milton 10-1 79.75 9 Dalton 9-2 67.40
10 McEachern 8-3 79.14 10 South Paulding 8-3 66.52
11 Tift County 7-4 78.38 11 Stephenson 8-3 66.51
12 Westlake 9-1 78.09 12 Alexander 8-3 64.51
13 Lowndes 6-4 77.52 13 Jones County 9-2 64.34
14 North Gwinnett 8-3 77.37 14 Stockbridge 9-2 63.15
15 Hughes 9-2 76.52 15 Harris County 9-2 61.37
AAAA AAA
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Buford 11-0 92.01 1 Washington County 11-0 81.15
2 Marist 10-1 71.00 2 Blessed Trinity 11-0 79.06
3 Cartersville 10-1 70.77 3 Calhoun 11-0 76.75
4 Sandy Creek 10-1 70.42 4 Jefferson 11-0 74.42
5 Woodward Academy 9-2 69.05 5 Westminster (Atlanta) 10-1 66.96
6 Griffin 11-0 67.08 6 Hart County 10-1 64.71
7 St. Pius X 9-2 66.35 7 Peach County 10-1 63.38
8 Mary Persons 9-2 64.32 8 Central (Carrollton) 11-0 62.36
9 North Oconee 8-3 63.29 9 Cook 9-2 61.29
10 Cairo 9-2 62.60 10 Pierce County 9-2 58.70
11 Whitewater 7-4 61.00 11 Dodge County 9-2 58.62
12 West Laurens 8-3 59.75 12 Cedar Grove 9-2 58.13
13 Stephens County 8-3 55.97 13 Westside (Macon) 9-2 58.13
14 Columbia 7-4 55.72 14 Elbert County 8-3 57.35
15 Baldwin 7-4 55.04 15 Adairsville 10-1 56.46
AA A
Rank Team Record Rating Rank Team Record Rating
1 Vidalia 11-0 76.63 1 Marion County 10-0 61.13
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 11-0 74.21 2 Mount Paran Christian 10-0 60.98
3 Benedictine 9-2 70.32 3 Irwin County 8-1-1 58.53
4 Fitzgerald 10-1 66.95 4 Hawkinsville 9-1 57.67
5 Brooks County 8-3 61.08 5 Calvary Day 10-0 55.68
6 Lovett 8-3 60.52 6 Charlton County 9-1 52.64
7 Thomasville 6-5 57.17 7 Aquinas 10-0 49.40
8 Macon County 9-2 55.63 8 Savannah Christian 9-1 49.37
9 Lamar County 8-2-1 48.58 9 Pacelli 7-3 46.62
10 Bacon County 6-5 44.40 10 Landmark Christian 8-2 46.10
11 Jefferson County 8-3 44.29 11 Dooly County 7-3 46.03
12 Berrien 4-7 41.92 12 Eagle's Landing Christian 4-6 45.62
13 Screven County 10-1 41.90 13 Clinch County 6-4 45.05
14 Early County 3-6-1 41.41 14 Mount Pisgah Christian 7-3 42.10
15 Rabun County 9-2 41.20 15 Emanuel County Institute 8-2 41.16

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.

### = Active playoff team; # = Eliminated playoff team

Rank Team Playoffs Region Record Rating Sch Str Rank
1 [1] Colquitt County ### 1-AAAAAA 11-0 105.83 69.10 6 [6]
2 [1] Buford ### 8-AAAA 11-0 92.01 40.82 188 [38]
3 [2] Grayson ### 8-AAAAAA 10-1 88.06 67.17 13 [13]
4 [3] Lee County ### 1-AAAAAA 8-2 85.22 65.09 23 [23]
5 [4] Dacula ### 8-AAAAAA 10-1 84.65 67.59 11 [11]
6 [5] Tucker ### 2-AAAAAA 9-2 83.61 44.08 138 [52]
7 [1] Allatoona ### 5-AAAAA 11-0 82.06 55.47 59 [10]
8 [6] Archer ### 8-AAAAAA 8-3 82.05 67.90 8 [8]
9 [1] Washington County ### 3-AAA 11-0 81.15 34.31 267 [31]
10 [2] Ware County ### 3-AAAAA 11-0 80.52 47.79 104 [36]
11 [7] Valdosta # 1-AAAAAA 9-2 80.40 66.11 19 [19]
12 [8] Mill Creek # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 80.27 66.78 15 [15]
13 [9] Milton ### 5-AAAAAA 10-1 79.75 60.04 33 [33]
14 [10] McEachern ### 4-AAAAAA 8-3 79.14 67.98 7 [7]
15 [2] Blessed Trinity ### 4-Div B-AAA 11-0 79.06 43.03 155 [5]
16 [11] Tift County # 1-AAAAAA 7-4 78.38 67.45 12 [12]
17 [12] Westlake ### 3-AAAAAA 9-1 78.09 50.40 82 [49]
18 [13] Lowndes 1-AAAAAA 6-4 77.52 72.72 1 [1]
19 [14] North Gwinnett # 7-AAAAAA 8-3 77.37 66.05 20 [20]
20 [3] Calhoun ### 6-AAA 11-0 76.75 24.23 367 [63]
21 [1] Vidalia ### 2-AA 11-0 76.63 33.38 279 [21]
22 [15] Hughes ### 3-AAAAAA 9-2 76.52 61.68 28 [28]
23 [16] Peachtree Ridge # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 75.51 67.60 9 [9]
24 [4] Jefferson ### 8-AAA 11-0 74.42 36.32 242 [20]
25 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian ### 6-AA 11-0 74.21 38.11 217 [14]
26 [17] Hillgrove ### 4-AAAAAA 8-3 74.10 61.75 27 [27]
27 [3] Mays ### 6-Div B-AAAAA 9-2 72.71 53.65 67 [14]
28 [18] Lovejoy # 2-AAAAAA 7-4 72.45 63.31 25 [25]
29 [19] Camden County 1-AAAAAA 5-5 72.29 70.61 5 [5]
30 [4] Creekside ### 6-Div B-AAAAA 9-2 72.25 57.73 45 [5]
31 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) ### 2-AAAAA 10-1 72.16 49.02 98 [32]
32 [20] Central Gwinnett ### 8-AAAAAA 7-4 72.11 66.65 17 [17]
33 [21] Etowah ### 5-AAAAAA 9-2 72.02 57.26 50 [41]
34 [6] Coffee ### 3-AAAAA 10-1 71.97 46.28 116 [43]
35 [22] Norcross # 7-AAAAAA 7-4 71.08 67.60 10 [10]
36 [2] Marist ### 6-AAAA 10-1 71.00 42.19 164 [32]
37 [3] Cartersville ### 7-AAAA 10-1 70.77 40.86 187 [37]
38 [23] North Cobb # 4-AAAAAA 7-4 70.68 65.27 22 [22]
39 [4] Sandy Creek ### 5-AAAA 10-1 70.42 52.95 70 [7]
40 [3] Benedictine ### 2-AA 9-2 70.32 39.89 202 [11]
41 [5] Woodward Academy ### 5-AAAA 9-2 69.05 50.59 81 [10]
42 [24] Alpharetta ### 6-AAAAAA 10-1 68.88 41.61 177 [59]
43 [25] Roswell ### 5-AAAAAA 8-3 67.95 58.55 41 [38]
44 [26] Newton ### 2-AAAAAA 6-3 67.93 51.97 74 [48]
45 [7] Kell ### 7-Div B-AAAAA 11-0 67.66 46.27 117 [44]
46 [8] Houston County ### 2-AAAAA 9-2 67.48 47.95 103 [35]
47 [9] Dalton ### 7-Div A-AAAAA 9-2 67.40 44.42 134 [51]
48 [6] Griffin ### 4-Div B-AAAA 11-0 67.08 32.87 285 [61]
49 [5] Westminster (Atlanta) ### 4-Div B-AAA 10-1 66.96 39.98 201 [11]
50 [4] Fitzgerald ### 1-AA 10-1 66.95 46.14 119 [4]
51 [10] South Paulding # 5-AAAAA 8-3 66.52 57.35 47 [7]
52 [11] Stephenson ### 6-Div A-AAAAA 8-3 66.51 46.67 113 [41]
53 [7] St. Pius X ### 6-AAAA 9-2 66.35 45.32 129 [24]
54 [27] East Coweta # 3-AAAAAA 8-3 65.66 55.44 60 [45]
55 [6] Hart County ### 8-AAA 10-1 64.71 34.74 261 [26]
56 [12] Alexander # 5-AAAAA 8-3 64.51 57.52 46 [6]
57 [28] Cherokee # 5-AAAAAA 7-4 64.45 56.21 51 [42]
58 [13] Jones County ### 2-AAAAA 9-2 64.34 48.57 99 [33]
59 [8] Mary Persons ### 2-AAAA 9-2 64.32 49.17 94 [13]
60 [29] Collins Hill 7-AAAAAA 5-5 64.05 65.97 21 [21]
61 [30] Parkview 8-AAAAAA 4-6 64.01 66.78 16 [16]
62 [7] Peach County # 2-AAA 10-1 63.38 34.46 264 [28]
63 [9] North Oconee ### 8-AAAA 8-3 63.29 46.75 112 [19]
64 [14] Stockbridge ### 4-Div B-AAAAA 9-2 63.15 44.39 135 [52]
65 [10] Cairo ### 1-Div A-AAAA 9-2 62.60 47.74 105 [16]
66 [8] Central (Carrollton) ### 5-AAA 11-0 62.36 30.91 307 [43]
67 [15] Harris County ### 1-AAAAA 9-2 61.37 42.72 160 [62]
68 [9] Cook ### 1-Div A-AAA 9-2 61.29 38.09 218 [14]
69 [1] Marion County ### 4-A 10-0 61.13 31.21 304 [18]
70 [5] Brooks County ### 1-AA 8-3 61.08 46.54 115 [3]
71 [11] Whitewater # 5-AAAA 7-4 61.00 53.28 68 [6]
72 [2] Mount Paran Christian ### 6-Div A-A 10-0 60.98 27.08 334 [31]
73 [16] Hiram 5-AAAAA 6-4 60.97 53.88 66 [13]
74 [17] New Manchester # 5-AAAAA 6-5 60.88 58.24 43 [3]
75 [18] Glynn Academy ### 3-AAAAA 8-3 60.76 51.25 78 [19]
76 [6] Lovett ### 6-AA 8-3 60.52 41.01 185 [9]
77 [31] South Gwinnett 8-AAAAAA 3-7 60.44 66.96 14 [14]
78 [32] Woodstock 5-AAAAAA 6-4 60.23 55.18 61 [46]
79 [19] Gainesville ### 8-AAAAA 9-2 60.13 41.40 178 [70]
80 [20] Carver (Atlanta) # 6-Div B-AAAAA 8-3 60.10 50.19 84 [23]
81 [12] West Laurens ### 2-AAAA 8-3 59.75 51.66 75 [9]
82 [21] Lakeside (Evans) 2-AAAAA 6-4 59.68 49.74 90 [27]
83 [33] Walton 5-AAAAAA 5-5 59.17 60.36 32 [32]
84 [10] Pierce County ### 1-Div A-AAA 9-2 58.70 40.44 196 [10]
85 [11] Dodge County ### 1-Div A-AAA 9-2 58.62 41.72 175 [6]
86 [34] Shiloh 8-AAAAAA 3-7 58.60 70.97 4 [4]
87 [3] Irwin County ### 2-A 8-1-1 58.53 38.86 210 [3]
88 [22] Lanier # 8-AAAAA 10-1 58.34 40.97 186 [72]
90 [13] Westside (Macon) ### 2-AAA 9-2 58.13 37.65 227 [15]
89 [12] Cedar Grove # 4-Div A-AAA 9-2 58.13 34.22 269 [32]
91 [35] North Paulding # 4-AAAAAA 4-7 57.72 66.28 18 [18]
92 [4] Hawkinsville ### 4-A 9-1 57.67 35.59 249 [7]
93 [36] Harrison 4-AAAAAA 5-5 57.48 58.87 37 [35]
94 [14] Elbert County ### 8-AAA 8-3 57.35 43.63 146 [3]
95 [23] Warner Robins # 2-AAAAA 6-5 57.27 53.21 69 [15]
96 [24] Mundy's Mill # 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 57.27 48.52 101 [34]
97 [25] Carver (Columbus) # 1-AAAAA 8-3 57.26 43.00 156 [59]
98 [7] Thomasville # 1-AA 6-5 57.17 55.84 56 [1]
99 [26] Sequoyah ### 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 57.05 54.23 64 [12]
100 [37] Douglas County # 3-AAAAAA 5-6 56.95 58.80 39 [37]
101 [38] Brookwood 8-AAAAAA 2-8 56.70 71.24 3 [3]
102 [15] Adairsville ### 6-AAA 10-1 56.46 19.35 393 [69]
103 [27] East Paulding 5-AAAAA 4-6 56.25 57.30 48 [8]
104 [13] Stephens County ### 8-AAAA 8-3 55.97 41.25 182 [36]
105 [28] Drew # 4-Div A-AAAAA 7-4 55.95 47.32 107 [37]
106 [14] Columbia # 6-AAAA 7-4 55.72 45.47 127 [22]
107 [5] Calvary Day ### 3-Div A-A 10-0 55.68 25.13 359 [41]
108 [8] Macon County ### 4-AA 9-2 55.63 36.60 238 [19]
109 [39] Wheeler 5-AAAAAA 4-6 55.51 58.82 38 [36]
110 [16] Appling County ### 1-Div A-AAA 8-3 55.32 43.75 144 [2]
111 [15] Baldwin ### 2-AAAA 7-4 55.04 48.57 100 [14]
112 [29] Paulding County 5-AAAAA 5-5 55.02 54.69 63 [11]
113 [30] Sprayberry 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 54.83 45.66 124 [46]
114 [31] Villa Rica 5-AAAAA 5-5 54.38 55.77 57 [9]
115 [16] Worth County # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-4 54.31 49.43 93 [12]
116 [40] Marietta 4-AAAAAA 3-7 54.25 62.21 26 [26]
117 [17] Wayne County ### 3-AAAA 6-5 53.95 48.30 102 [15]
118 [41] Kennesaw Mountain 4-AAAAAA 4-6 53.84 58.47 42 [39]
119 [32] Southwest DeKalb 6-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 53.29 51.36 76 [17]
120 [6] Charlton County ### 2-A 9-1 52.64 33.68 276 [14]
121 [18] Burke County ### 3-AAAA 7-4 52.30 43.54 147 [29]
122 [19] Carrollton 5-AAAA 4-6 52.21 56.01 53 [2]
123 [20] Thomas County Central 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 52.01 44.80 132 [26]
124 [21] Fayette County # 5-AAAA 4-7 51.33 55.73 58 [4]
125 [33] Brunswick # 3-AAAAA 6-5 51.31 49.86 88 [25]
126 [42] South Cobb 3-AAAAAA 4-6 51.30 56.21 52 [43]
127 [34] Cambridge 7-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 50.91 39.23 208 [78]
128 [35] Starr's Mill # 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 50.90 49.13 95 [29]
129 [36] Creekview # 7-Div A-AAAAA 6-5 50.84 50.01 86 [24]
130 [43] Lambert # 6-AAAAAA 7-4 50.71 42.35 163 [56]
131 [22] Westover # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-5 49.84 46.06 120 [20]
132 [37] Dutchtown 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 49.69 49.10 97 [31]
133 [23] Troup 5-AAAA 3-7 49.52 55.97 55 [3]
134 [44] Northview # 6-AAAAAA 7-4 49.50 39.84 203 [62]
135 [24] Bainbridge # 1-Div B-AAAA 6-5 49.46 46.81 111 [18]
136 [38] Tri-Cities 6-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 49.42 40.71 193 [75]
137 [7] Aquinas ### 7-Div B-A 10-0 49.40 23.92 372 [46]
138 [8] Savannah Christian ### 3-Div A-A 9-1 49.37 22.52 376 [49]
139 [45] Newnan 3-AAAAAA 3-7 49.34 57.27 49 [40]
140 [46] Mountain View 7-AAAAAA 3-7 49.18 60.77 31 [31]
141 [25] Upson-Lee 2-AAAA 7-3 48.81 39.33 206 [41]
142 [39] Evans 2-AAAAA 5-5 48.67 49.11 96 [30]
144 [26] Pickens ### 7-AAAA 8-3 48.58 36.15 245 [52]
143 [9] Lamar County # 4-AA 8-2-1 48.58 33.38 278 [22]
145 [47] Rockdale County # 2-AAAAAA 5-6 48.56 56.00 54 [44]
146 [27] Veterans # 2-AAAA 3-8 48.24 59.53 35 [1]
147 [17] Laney # 3-AAA 7-4 47.72 33.58 277 [35]
148 [40] Northgate 4-Div A-AAAAA 6-4 47.65 42.06 165 [64]
149 [41] Effingham County 3-AAAAA 6-4 46.84 46.87 110 [40]
150 [18] Callaway ### 5-AAA 7-4 46.76 36.85 234 [18]
151 [9] Pacelli ### 4-A 7-3 46.62 34.92 256 [11]
152 [42] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4-Div B-AAAAA 7-3 46.35 40.74 190 [73]
153 [48] West Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 6-4 46.21 41.24 183 [60]
154 [10] Landmark Christian ### 5-A 8-2 46.10 28.53 322 [25]
155 [49] South Forsyth # 6-AAAAAA 6-5 46.08 42.04 166 [57]
156 [11] Dooly County ### 4-A 7-3 46.03 34.65 262 [12]
157 [50] Pope 5-AAAAAA 2-8 45.98 60.98 30 [30]
158 [43] Richmond Academy 2-AAAAA 4-5-1 45.89 49.57 91 [28]
159 [12] Eagle's Landing Christian ### 5-A 4-6 45.62 49.91 87 [1]
160 [44] Winder-Barrow # 8-AAAAA 6-5 45.39 44.60 133 [50]
161 [19] Oconee County ### 8-AAA 8-3 45.32 32.40 290 [39]
162 [28] Gilmer # 7-AAAA 8-3 45.19 35.15 253 [54]
163 [29] White County # 8-AAAA 6-5 45.11 43.91 143 [28]
164 [13] Clinch County ### 2-A 6-4 45.05 38.03 220 [4]
165 [20] West Hall # 7-AAA 9-2 44.94 26.58 337 [52]
166 [45] Miller Grove 6-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 44.75 41.76 173 [68]
167 [30] Monroe 1-Div A-AAAA 6-4 44.62 38.69 211 [42]
168 [31] Eagle's Landing # 4-Div A-AAAA 8-3 44.46 36.36 241 [51]
169 [10] Bacon County # 2-AA 6-5 44.40 39.23 207 [12]
170 [11] Jefferson County ### 3-AA 8-3 44.29 31.79 298 [31]
171 [46] Salem # 8-AAAAA 6-5 44.27 42.81 158 [61]
172 [47] Forsyth Central 7-Div B-AAAAA 6-4 44.23 38.37 213 [80]
173 [48] LaGrange # 1-AAAAA 5-6 44.22 45.58 126 [48]
174 [32] Grady 6-AAAA 5-5 44.03 41.65 176 [35]
175 [21] Jackson # 2-AAA 7-4 43.60 36.20 244 [22]
176 [22] Jenkins 1-Div B-AAA 6-4 43.46 34.75 260 [25]
177 [33] Eastside ### 4-Div A-AAAA 7-4 43.41 38.34 214 [44]
178 [49] South Effingham 3-AAAAA 4-6 43.26 46.90 109 [39]
179 [50] Clarke Central 8-AAAAA 5-5 42.94 41.86 172 [67]
180 [51] Luella 4-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 42.90 44.05 139 [54]
181 [52] Cass 7-Div A-AAAAA 5-5 42.76 45.63 125 [47]
182 [51] Lassiter 5-AAAAAA 0-10 42.61 64.80 24 [24]
183 [14] Mount Pisgah Christian ### 6-Div B-A 7-3 42.10 31.20 305 [19]
184 [12] Berrien # 1-AA 4-7 41.92 52.80 71 [2]
185 [23] Ringgold # 6-AAA 8-3 41.90 26.10 341 [54]
186 [13] Screven County ### 3-AA 10-1 41.90 26.04 344 [39]
187 [52] Berkmar 8-AAAAAA 0-10 41.57 72.54 2 [2]
188 [53] M. L. King 6-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 41.45 51.99 73 [16]
189 [14] Early County 1-AA 3-6-1 41.41 45.86 122 [5]
190 [54] Rome 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-6 41.41 45.12 131 [49]
191 [34] Locust Grove # 4-Div A-AAAA 8-3 41.39 34.09 271 [57]
192 [15] Rabun County ### 8-AA 9-2 41.20 24.44 363 [44]
193 [35] Spalding 4-Div B-AAAA 6-4 41.19 34.88 257 [55]
194 [55] Riverwood ### 7-Div B-AAAAA 5-5 41.16 40.35 199 [77]
195 [15] Emanuel County Institute 3-Div B-A 8-2 41.16 24.54 362 [42]
196 [16] Bleckley County # 4-AA 5-6 41.05 43.98 142 [6]
197 [16] Tattnall Square ### 7-Div A-A 9-1 41.03 20.41 385 [53]
198 [36] Arabia Mountain 6-AAAA 4-6 40.71 47.63 106 [17]
199 [17] Bowdon # 5-AA 8-3 40.70 28.46 323 [35]
200 [18] Pace Academy ### 6-AA 6-5 40.31 38.05 219 [16]
201 [37] Howard 2-AAAA 3-6-1 40.07 45.43 128 [23]
202 [38] Thomson # 3-AAAA 4-7 39.61 44.37 136 [27]
203 [24] Maynard Jackson # 4-Div A-AAA 7-4 39.54 35.62 248 [23]
204 [39] Lithonia # 6-AAAA 6-5 38.78 36.83 235 [49]
205 [40] Madison County 8-AAAA 5-5 38.59 38.48 212 [43]
206 [56] Union Grove 4-Div B-AAAAA 3-7 38.55 46.54 114 [42]
207 [57] Ola 4-Div B-AAAAA 4-6 38.12 41.33 180 [71]
208 [19] Model ### 7-AA 9-2 37.97 24.39 364 [45]
209 [41] Crisp County 1-Div A-AAAA 3-7 37.87 52.22 72 [8]
210 [25] Brantley County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 37.87 34.17 270 [33]
211 [53] Centennial 6-AAAAAA 5-5 37.79 42.04 167 [58]
212 [26] Washington 4-Div B-AAA 4-6 37.78 40.64 194 [8]
213 [17] Atkinson County ### 2-A 6-4 37.58 32.37 291 [15]
214 [20] Dublin # 3-AA 6-5 37.56 33.08 282 [24]
215 [27] Decatur 4-Div B-AAA 6-4 37.24 36.21 243 [21]
216 [18] Claxton ### 3-Div A-A 7-3 37.14 31.19 306 [20]
217 [21] Darlington # 7-AA 9-2 37.04 22.39 377 [48]
218 [58] Flowery Branch 8-AAAAA 5-5 36.92 37.91 223 [81]
219 [42] Jonesboro 4-Div B-AAAA 4-6 36.89 41.95 169 [34]
220 [22] Seminole County 1-AA 4-6 36.75 40.82 189 [10]
221 [59] Druid Hills 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 36.67 44.03 140 [55]
222 [23] Pelham 1-AA 4-6 36.45 43.15 154 [7]
223 [24] B.E.S.T. Academy 6-AA 5-5 36.14 38.28 215 [13]
224 [60] Grovetown 2-AAAAA 3-7 36.13 49.83 89 [26]
225 [61] Statesboro # 3-AAAAA 2-8 36.12 51.28 77 [18]
226 [25] Wesleyan 6-AA 6-5 36.12 32.72 287 [26]
227 [62] Lithia Springs 5-AAAAA 1-9 36.00 57.90 44 [4]
228 [19] Schley County 4-A 6-4 36.00 31.22 303 [17]
229 [26] Swainsboro # 3-AA 5-6 35.97 38.11 216 [15]
230 [20] Mount Zion (Carroll) ### 6-Div A-A 7-3 35.88 21.42 382 [52]
231 [21] Greenville ### 4-A 5-5 35.54 36.38 240 [6]
232 [63] McIntosh 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 35.24 43.54 149 [56]
233 [43] Walnut Grove 4-Div A-AAAA 6-4 35.22 31.67 300 [63]
234 [22] Stratford Academy ### 7-Div A-A 6-4 35.19 27.87 328 [27]
236 [44] Northwest Whitfield ### 7-AAAA 5-5 35.09 34.85 259 [56]
235 [27] Coosa 7-AA 8-3 35.09 24.18 369 [47]
237 [28] Union County # 8-AA 9-2 35.03 19.15 394 [53]
238 [45] Liberty County # 3-AAAA 4-7 34.77 42.01 168 [33]
239 [28] Southeast Bulloch 1-Div B-AAA 5-5 34.75 33.92 273 [34]
240 [29] Washington-Wilkes ### 8-AA 7-4 34.73 27.48 333 [37]
241 [46] Perry 2-AAAA 1-9 34.72 54.18 65 [5]
242 [54] Duluth 7-AAAAAA 2-8 34.40 59.01 36 [34]
243 [29] Morgan County 8-AAA 4-6 34.38 41.25 181 [7]
244 [64] Shaw 1-AAAAA 4-6 34.32 37.79 224 [82]
245 [47] Southeast Whitfield # 7-AAAA 6-5 33.86 30.82 308 [65]
246 [65] Northside (Columbus) # 1-AAAAA 4-7 33.81 40.71 192 [76]
248 [30] Central (Macon) ### 2-AAA 5-6 33.72 34.36 265 [29]
247 [23] Lincoln County # 7-Div B-A 7-3 33.72 25.27 354 [39]
249 [66] Heritage (Conyers) 8-AAAAA 3-7 33.65 41.90 170 [65]
251 [67] Loganville ### 8-AAAAA 4-6 33.55 38.97 209 [79]
250 [24] First Presbyterian 7-Div A-A 7-3 33.55 25.83 346 [36]
252 [25] Pinecrest Academy ### 6-Div B-A 7-3 33.36 26.47 339 [33]
253 [26] Telfair County 2-A 6-4 33.17 30.74 309 [21]
254 [27] Our Lady of Mercy 5-A 6-4 32.95 24.02 371 [45]
255 [48] Heritage (Ringgold) 7-AAAA 5-5 32.88 34.00 272 [58]
256 [68] Richmond Hill 3-AAAAA 2-8 32.86 45.92 121 [45]
257 [30] Bryan County # 2-AA 5-6 32.80 37.40 229 [18]
258 [31] Heard County ### 5-AA 6-5 32.73 30.70 310 [32]
259 [31] Westside (Augusta) # 3-AAA 4-6-1 32.48 36.82 236 [19]
260 [32] Monticello # 4-AA 4-7 32.17 35.17 252 [20]
261 [49] Americus-Sumter 1-Div B-AAAA 3-7 32.14 43.26 150 [30]
262 [50] Henry County 4-Div A-AAAA 4-6 31.69 36.92 233 [48]
263 [32] East Hall # 7-AAA 6-5 31.50 30.63 311 [44]
264 [28] Johnson County 3-Div B-A 5-5 31.23 25.92 345 [35]
265 [29] Brookstone 4-A 4-6 31.18 38.02 221 [5]
266 [55] Chattahoochee 6-AAAAAA 3-7 31.15 42.81 159 [55]
267 [33] Sonoraville # 6-AAA 6-5 31.10 26.08 342 [55]
268 [69] River Ridge 7-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 30.66 43.21 152 [58]
269 [34] Jackson County 8-AAA 2-8 30.51 43.99 141 [1]
270 [30] Wilcox County 2-A 3-7 30.14 40.39 197 [2]
271 [51] Ridgeland 7-AAAA 4-6 30.12 36.08 246 [53]
272 [31] St. Francis ### 6-Div B-A 7-3 29.95 18.36 395 [58]
273 [33] Metter 3-AA 4-6 29.55 31.88 297 [30]
274 [34] Groves 2-AA 6-4 29.05 21.38 383 [49]
275 [35] Tattnall County 1-Div A-AAA 5-5 29.03 32.01 295 [41]
276 [32] Prince Avenue Christian ### 8-A 8-2 28.92 8.73 411 [69]
277 [56] Campbell 3-AAAAAA 3-7 28.91 46.15 118 [51]
278 [33] Commerce ### 8-A 8-2 28.89 12.25 406 [65]
279 [34] Calhoun County ### 1-A 7-3 28.59 19.67 392 [57]
280 [70] North Springs 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-8 28.45 42.91 157 [60]
281 [36] Lumpkin County # 7-AAA 5-6 28.44 30.19 315 [46]
282 [37] Cedartown # 5-AAA 3-8 28.38 40.52 195 [9]
283 [71] Greenbrier 2-AAAAA 2-8 28.26 50.70 80 [21]
284 [38] Kendrick 2-AAA 5-5 28.15 29.85 317 [48]
285 [35] Turner County 2-A 4-6 28.05 34.28 268 [13]
286 [36] Christian Heritage ### 6-Div A-A 5-5 27.78 29.73 318 [22]
287 [37] Athens Christian ### 8-A 7-3 27.40 10.76 407 [66]
288 [72] Morrow 4-Div A-AAAAA 3-7 27.33 41.88 171 [66]
289 [52] North Hall 8-AAAA 2-8 26.57 50.06 85 [11]
290 [57] Pebblebrook 3-AAAAAA 2-8 26.19 49.57 92 [50]
291 [35] Bremen # 5-AA 6-5 26.07 25.76 347 [40]
292 [73] Dunwoody 6-Div A-AAAAA 4-6 25.67 35.58 250 [85]
293 [74] Chapel Hill 5-AAAAA 0-10 25.48 58.69 40 [2]
294 [39] North Clayton 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 25.46 39.35 205 [13]
295 [40] Towers 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 25.45 37.22 230 [16]
296 [38] Mitchell County ### 1-A 6-4 25.33 20.29 387 [54]
297 [53] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 25.28 36.76 237 [50]
298 [39] Jenkins County ### 3-Div A-A 7-3 24.99 18.01 396 [59]
299 [75] Apalachee 8-AAAAA 1-9 24.61 42.42 162 [63]
300 [54] Monroe Area 8-AAAA 1-9 24.43 45.66 123 [21]
301 [55] Riverdale 4-Div B-AAAA 3-7 24.31 33.89 274 [59]
302 [40] Savannah Country Day 3-Div A-A 3-7 23.89 31.60 301 [16]
303 [58] Lakeside (Atlanta) 2-AAAAAA 3-7 23.88 37.70 226 [63]
304 [36] Greene County # 8-AA 5-6 23.83 25.14 358 [42]
305 [37] Jeff Davis 2-AA 4-6 23.77 30.54 313 [33]
306 [76] Banneker 6-Div B-AAAAA 0-10 23.54 59.91 34 [1]
307 [77] Bradwell Institute 3-AAAAA 0-10 23.38 50.35 83 [22]
308 [41] Rutland 2-AAA 3-7 23.31 33.28 280 [36]
309 [78] Columbus 1-AAAAA 3-7 22.90 36.42 239 [83]
310 [42] North Murray 6-AAA 5-5 22.84 19.83 390 [68]
311 [59] Johns Creek 6-AAAAAA 1-9 22.74 43.21 151 [54]
312 [38] Holy Innocents 6-AA 2-8 22.42 38.01 222 [17]
313 [43] Banks County 7-AAA 5-5 22.37 21.67 380 [67]
314 [39] Hapeville 6-AA 4-6 22.27 30.51 314 [34]
315 [79] Cross Creek 2-AAAAA 1-9 22.22 51.19 79 [20]
316 [40] Northeast 4-AA 3-7 22.17 33.03 283 [25]
317 [44] Pepperell 5-AAA 3-7 22.16 32.64 289 [38]
318 [41] Wilkinson County 7-Div A-A 4-6 22.02 26.69 336 [32]
319 [45] Franklin County # 7-AAA 4-7 21.53 32.19 292 [40]
320 [80] Cedar Shoals 8-AAAAA 0-10 21.44 43.54 148 [57]
321 [42] Trion 6-Div A-A 5-5 21.27 21.47 381 [51]
322 [46] Rockmart # 5-AAA 3-8 21.10 34.60 263 [27]
323 [47] Jordan 2-AAA 3-7 20.96 29.58 319 [49]
324 [60] Habersham Central 6-AAAAAA 1-9 20.66 41.18 184 [61]
325 [43] Mount de Sales 7-Div A-A 4-6 20.51 26.33 340 [34]
326 [48] Dawson County 7-AAA 2-8 20.46 30.56 312 [45]
327 [81] North Atlanta 7-Div B-AAAAA 2-8 20.31 41.75 174 [69]
328 [41] Long County 2-AA 3-7 20.13 31.89 296 [29]
329 [49] Fannin County 7-AAA 4-6 19.97 25.52 350 [59]
330 [50] Southwest 2-AAA 3-7 19.96 34.34 266 [30]
331 [42] Chattahoochee County # 5-AA 6-5 19.93 17.31 398 [54]
332 [43] Chattooga # 7-AA 4-7 19.65 24.57 361 [43]
333 [44] Fellowship Christian 6-Div B-A 4-6 19.36 22.00 379 [50]
334 [51] Therrell 4-Div B-AAA 3-7 19.29 32.71 288 [37]
335 [52] Johnson (Savannah) 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 19.18 26.48 338 [53]
336 [61] Osborne 4-AAAAAA† 2-7 19.03 33.82 275 [64]
337 [45] Hancock Central 7-Div B-A 4-6 19.00 24.21 368 [44]
338 [46] Portal 3-Div A-A 3-7 18.55 29.12 320 [23]
339 [56] Pike County 4-Div B-AAAA 2-8 18.12 37.43 228 [46]
340 [47] Whitefield Academy 6-Div B-A 4-6 18.06 24.27 365 [43]
341 [53] Hephzibah # 3-AAA 6-5 17.97 17.72 397 [70]
342 [57] Chestatee 8-AAAA 1-9 17.96 42.72 161 [31]
343 [62] Alcovy 2-AAAAAA 0-10 17.82 54.85 62 [47]
344 [63] North Forsyth 6-AAAAAA 1-9 17.79 43.74 145 [53]
345 [54] McNair 4-Div A-AAA 3-7 17.57 25.18 356 [61]
346 [82] Woodland (Cartersville) 7-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 17.27 46.95 108 [38]
347 [58] Dougherty 1-Div B-AAAA 2-7 17.10 32.98 284 [60]
348 [59] Redan 6-AAAA 2-8 17.01 37.70 225 [45]
349 [83] Forest Park 4-Div A-AAAAA 0-10 16.58 44.19 137 [53]
350 [48] Taylor County 4-A 1-8-1 16.30 35.39 251 [8]
351 [55] Toombs County 1-Div A-AAA 2-8 16.29 43.19 153 [4]
352 [60] Albany 1-Div A-AAAA 1-8 16.22 37.04 232 [47]
353 [61] Johnson (Gainesville) 8-AAAA† 2-8 16.00 28.43 324 [66]
354 [62] Chamblee 6-AAAA 1-9 15.91 40.07 200 [40]
355 [44] Manchester 5-AA 3-7 15.41 25.18 355 [41]
356 [56] Spencer 2-AAA 1-9 14.56 37.08 231 [17]
357 [49] Terrell County 1-A 3-6 13.90 25.16 357 [40]
358 [50] Georgia Military College 7-Div B-A 3-7 13.79 27.82 329 [28]
359 [57] Butler 3-AAA 3-6 13.16 22.04 378 [66]
360 [45] Riverside Military Academy 8-AA 3-7 13.10 20.07 388 [52]
361 [51] Montgomery County 3-Div B-A 3-7 12.53 25.46 352 [38]
362 [52] Strong Rock Christian 5-A 4-6 12.42 23.07 375 [48]
363 [63] LaFayette 7-AAAA 2-8 12.25 32.75 286 [62]
364 [53] Walker 6-Div A-A 2-8 12.20 28.09 326 [26]
365 [54] George Walton Academy 8-A 5-5 11.77 13.03 403 [62]
366 [46] Dade County 7-AA 2-8 11.67 26.74 335 [38]
367 [58] South Atlanta 4-Div A-AAA 2-8 11.42 25.63 349 [58]
368 [55] Lanier County 2-A 1-9 10.80 34.94 255 [10]
369 [47] East Laurens 3-AA 2-7-1 10.36 24.23 366 [46]
370 [56] King's Ridge Christian 6-Div B-A 1-9 10.25 27.61 331 [29]
371 [57] Central (Talbotton) 4-A 2-8 10.22 34.95 254 [9]
372 [48] Putnam County 4-AA 2-8 10.11 32.04 293 [27]
373 [59] Beach 1-Div B-AAA 3-7 10.10 24.72 360 [62]
374 [49] Gordon Lee 7-AA 3-7 10.01 20.40 386 [51]
375 [50] K.I.P.P. Atlanta Collegiate 6-AA 1-9 9.26 33.15 281 [23]
376 [60] Douglass 4-Div B-AAA 2-8 9.20 29.95 316 [47]
377 [58] Hebron Christian Academy 8-A 5-5 8.80 6.16 413 [71]
378 [51] McIntosh County Academy 2-AA 0-10 8.18 41.39 179 [8]
379 [61] Josey 3-AAA 2-8 8.01 25.66 348 [57]
380 [84] Hardaway 1-AAAAA 0-10 7.59 40.73 191 [74]
381 [59] Miller County 1-A 2-8 7.49 28.88 321 [24]
382 [60] Athens Academy 8-A 4-5 7.36 7.00 412 [70]
383 [62] Glenn Hills 3-AAA 1-9 6.80 39.47 204 [12]
384 [61] Randolph-Clay 1-A 3-7 6.77 16.25 400 [60]
385 [52] Crawford County 4-AA† 6-4 5.88 -0.19 415 [57]
387 [53] Harlem 3-AA 2-8 4.16 27.87 327 [36]
386 [62] Treutlen 3-Div B-A 1-9 4.16 27.57 332 [30]
388 [63] Twiggs County 7-Div A-A 1-9 3.51 25.50 351 [37]
389 [63] Savannah 1-Div B-AAA 2-8 3.24 27.72 330 [51]
390 [64] Warren County 7-Div B-A 2-8 3.13 20.03 389 [55]
391 [64] Haralson County 5-AAA 1-9 3.12 31.71 299 [42]
392 [65] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6-AAA 3-7 3.02 24.04 370 [64]
393 [64] Meadowcreek 7-AAAAAA 1-9 2.88 61.14 29 [29]
394 [66] East Jackson 8-AAA 1-9 1.36 34.85 258 [24]
395 [64] Hampton 4-Div A-AAAA 0-9 0.23 40.36 198 [39]
396 [65] Lakeview Academy 8-A 3-7 0.20 12.50 404 [63]
397 [66] North Cobb Christian 6-Div A-A† 5-5 -0.63 -0.27 416 [73]
398 [67] Murray County 6-AAA 2-8 -0.79 26.07 343 [56]
399 [68] Gordon Central 6-AAA 1-9 -3.97 25.34 353 [60]
400 [54] Oglethorpe County 8-AA 1-8 -4.08 32.03 294 [28]
401 [67] Wheeler County 3-Div B-A 1-9 -4.30 23.19 374 [47]
402 [65] Stone Mountain 6-AAAA 0-10 -4.92 45.18 130 [25]
403 [55] Temple 5-AA 2-8 -5.09 16.18 401 [56]
404 [56] Armuchee 7-AA 1-9 -6.99 20.54 384 [50]
405 [68] Towns County 8-A 2-8 -9.10 12.41 405 [64]
406 [69] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5-A 2-8 -9.58 9.33 410 [68]
407 [69] Islands 1-Div B-AAA 1-9 -9.61 28.16 325 [50]
408 [66] New Hampstead 3-AAAA† 2-8 -9.87 9.93 408 [67]
409 [67] Windsor Forest 3-AAAA 0-10 -10.55 31.28 302 [64]
410 [70] Baconton 1-A 1-9 -11.02 19.74 391 [56]
411 [57] Social Circle 8-AA 0-10 -12.05 16.29 399 [55]
412 [71] Glascock County 7-Div B-A† 1-9 -15.57 2.84 414 [72]
413 [72] Stewart County 1-A† 0-10 -20.78 9.36 409 [67]
414 [68] Cross Keys 6-AAAA† 1-4 -21.09 -0.64 417 [68]
415 [70] Coahulla Creek 6-AAA 0-10 -23.73 23.90 373 [65]
416 [85] Clarkston 6-Div A-AAAAA† 0-10 -24.89 35.89 247 [84]
417 [73] Providence Christian 8-A 0-10 -27.25 15.90 402 [61]
†-Plays non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Competitive Average
1 1 - AAAAAA 100.12 82.24
2 8 - AAAAAA 87.00 67.61
3 7 - AAAAAA 82.24 62.20
4 2 - AAAAAA 79.80 54.88
5 4 - AAAAAA 78.54 63.60
6 5 - AAAAAA 78.09 60.95
7 3 - AAAAAA 76.17 54.92
8 5 - AAAAA 75.11 57.20
9 5 - AAAA 74.90 58.78
10 3 - AAAAA 71.35 48.64
11 2 - AAAAA 70.61 51.17
12 8 - AAA 69.03 45.75
13 6 - AAAAA 69.00 49.85
6 - Div B - AAAAA 76.97 58.00
6 - Div A - AAAAA 60.36 44.35
14 8 - AAAA 66.74 42.80
15 2 - AAAA 66.65 50.22
16 1 - AA 66.62 48.38
17 2 - AA 65.01 34.73
18 7 - AAAAA 63.52 44.27
7 - Div A - AAAAA 63.69 44.35
7 - Div B - AAAAA 63.34 44.19
19 6 - AAAA 62.27 39.91
20 4 - AAAAA 61.49 44.37
4 - Div B - AAAAA 62.34 46.04
4 - Div A - AAAAA 60.74 42.56
21 1 - AAAA 60.88 42.80
1 - Div A - AAAA 62.40 43.78
1 - Div B - AAAA 59.39 41.85
22 6 - AA 60.85 35.86
23 4 - AAA 60.03 32.82
4 - Div B - AAA 70.38 39.29
4 - Div A - AAA 49.50 28.07
24 1 - AAAAA 58.83 37.71
25 6 - AAAAAA 58.77 38.95
26 4 - A 58.24 38.45
27 7 - AAAA 57.96 37.74
28 8 - AAAAA 57.96 39.90
29 1 - AAA 57.62 33.14
1 - Div A - AAA 65.75 47.01
1 - Div B - AAA 39.21 16.37
30 2 - A 55.98 37.19
31 3 - AAA 55.20 24.39
32 2 - AAA 55.08 32.16
33 3 - AAAA 55.04 39.32
34 6 - AAA 54.71 20.63
35 5 - AAA 53.61 29.25
36 4 - AAAA 53.12 34.41
4 - Div B - AAAA 55.51 33.51
4 - Div A - AAAA 51.47 35.23
37 4 - AA 52.59 35.54
38 5 - A 49.61 28.47
39 3 - A 48.25 26.95
3 - Div A - A 54.16 34.29
3 - Div B - A 38.61 16.15
40 3 - AA 48.24 30.67
41 6 - A 45.11 27.26
6 - Div A - A 48.58 29.80
6 - Div B - A 42.57 25.40
42 7 - AAA 42.80 26.54
43 7 - A 42.74 25.08
7 - Div A - A 43.80 26.67
7 - Div B - A 41.19 22.82
44 8 - AA 41.38 20.76
45 7 - AA 40.90 21.33
46 5 - AA 40.63 22.59
47 8 - A 29.93 9.74
48 1 - A 27.92 12.28

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
08/29 Macon County Americus-Sumter 23 - 28 22.71 90.6% 0.159
10/10 Mount Pisgah Christian Fellowship Christian 28 - 33 21.96 90.0% 0.168
09/05 Westlake Shiloh 7 - 14 20.27 88.4% 0.179
09/05 Cook Berrien 14 - 21 20.16 88.2% 0.180
09/26 Pickens Ridgeland 28 - 35 19.24 87.3% 0.192
09/26 Stockbridge Luella 6 - 7 21.03 89.1% 0.198
09/26 Central (Macon) Spencer 21 - 27 18.38 86.3% 0.207
10/23 Cairo Monroe 14 - 21 17.20 84.8% 0.219
09/26 Westside (Augusta) Butler 27 - 29 18.54 86.5% 0.224
08/22 Fayette County McIntosh 25 - 28 16.87 84.4% 0.242
10/03 Roswell Wheeler 14 - 28 13.22 79.0% 0.255
11/14 Valdosta Newton 14 - 27 13.24 79.0% 0.257
10/03 Walton Pope 36 - 44 13.98 80.2% 0.263
10/24 Hillgrove Harrison 42 - 43 15.84 83.0% 0.267
08/22 Athens Christian Strong Rock Christian 7 - 8 15.76 82.9% 0.269

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
86.61 10/10 Colquitt County Lee County 58 - 14 21.40 89.5%
86.19 10/24 Grayson Dacula 17 - 27 2.63 56.5%
85.97 11/21 Colquitt County Dacula - 21.96 90.0%
85.50 11/21 Grayson Tucker - 3.67 59.1%
84.38 09/12 Grayson Archer 14 - 10 5.23 62.8%
83.49 11/21 Lee County Archer - 2.38 55.9%
83.27 10/31 Dacula Archer 10 - 24 1.82 54.5%
82.96 11/14 Grayson Mill Creek 24 - 6 7.01 66.9%
82.19 10/17 Colquitt County Valdosta 48 - 20 24.65 92.2%
82.14 09/05 Dacula Mill Creek 28 - 21 3.61 58.9%
82.03 11/07 Lee County Valdosta 21 - 22 5.60 63.6%
81.57 08/23 Colquitt County Mill Creek 31 - 14 25.57 92.8%
81.33 09/05 Buford McEachern 27 - 20 13.65 79.7%
80.89 10/03 Lee County Tift County 24 - 21 6.06 64.7%
80.10 11/14 Tucker Tift County 31 - 29 6.02 64.6%

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Todd Holcomb

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