Maxwell First Round summary: For playoff excitement, get out the popcorn and skip the higher classifications . . .

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the player roster or coaching staff.

Interesting results:

- Maybe it’s me, but my excitement for college football this season is somewhat flat.  Sure, I love watching the Bulldogs dismantle our traditional conference foes South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn, but it’s also week after week of watching Alabama steamroll opponent after opponent on its way to a seemingly inevitable national championship.  To be clear, there are other possibilities, ones which I’m sure many of us are hoping will unfold (i.e., a Georgia victory in the SEC title game), but it’s undeniable that anything other than a Tide repeat title is an underdog scenario.

For the most part, it’s been the same in the higher GHSA classifications where the top teams have been remarkably consistent.

For example, in Class AAAAAAA, Colquitt County has already defeated a fourth of the remaining playoff teams (McEachern 41-7, Grayson 26-14, Tift County 45-7, and Lowndes 40-6).  That’s an average of 38-8.5 over some of the best teams in the state with none even coming close.

In Class AAAAAA, all of powerhouse Region 1 advanced to the second round, crushing Region 4 in a clean Round One sweep with a 51.5-20 average.  But perhaps more impressive is that the leader of the South Georgia pack, Lee County, has previously routed the three other remaining Region 1 teams by an average of 41.67-7 in the regular season.

Overall, Colquitt County has a 73.0% chance to win it all while Lee County stands on an even more impressive 82.9% chance.  Between the top two classes, only Grayson has a greater than a 10% chance, sitting at 12.3% in Class AAAAAAA.

Lower classifications, however, provide more uncertainty.

In Class AAAAA, Rome is the top rated team but Warner Robins is actually the overall favorite for the title (34.4% versus 38.6%) due to a remaining draw that is about three points easier.

In AAAA, Mary Persons is the favorite (43.3%), but don't discount Blessed Trinity (31.7%) or Cartersville (16.2%).

Cedar Grove is the strong favorite in Class AAA with a 42.0% chance, but if they're unexpectedly eliminated the race gets tight between Calhoun (19.8%), Peach County (19.3%), and Monroe Area (12.0%).

Rockmart (32.0%) and Dublin (31.0%) make Class AA a virtual toss up while Irwin County stands tall in Class A - Public at 52.2% but Pelham (24.2%) and Clinch County (18.8%) are ready if the Indians should falter.

Class A - Private is perhaps the most interesting, where here again the highest rated team is not the bracket favorite.  Athens Academy (36.4%) rates about a point higher than Eagle’s Landing Christian (37.2%) but the Chargers enjoy a slightly easier draw.  Prince Avenue Christian (16.4%) stands a reasonable chance as well.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.08%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 2,025 of 2,175 total games including 0 tie(s) (93.10%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 13.85 points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.08

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Colquitt County11-0104.741Lee County11-090.95
2Grayson9-286.712Creekview11-067.26
3Parkview11-086.113Valdosta7-466.95
4Hillgrove11-079.184Northside (Warner Robins)6-563.97
5North Gwinnett9-278.445Allatoona8-361.40
6Tift County7-477.736Harrison9-260.25
7Lowndes8-377.547Sequoyah9-260.20
8Archer9-276.158Coffee8-358.06
9Walton10-175.829Dacula9-256.09
10McEachern8-373.5910Glynn Academy7-453.09
11Camden County7-472.1711Johns Creek9-253.08
12Milton9-270.8412Lanier8-346.70
13Marietta5-669.1713Dalton6-446.69
14Westlake9-268.5714Centennial7-445.19
15Roswell9-268.3315Creekside8-344.77
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Rome11-082.451Mary Persons11-084.04
2Warner Robins10-180.732Blessed Trinity11-077.50
3Dutchtown11-074.193Cartersville11-075.34
4Buford9-267.934St. Pius X10-171.65
5Stockbridge10-165.765Marist9-267.60
6Kell9-261.466Troup10-165.81
7Jones County8-360.877Pickens11-060.88
8Wayne County11-060.588Ridgeland8-354.21
9Bainbridge6-558.609North Oconee9-253.66
10Carrollton9-258.3210Baldwin6-553.45
11Veterans8-358.2411Upson-Lee7-453.42
12Ware County8-356.1212Burke County8-353.24
13East Paulding7-452.1713Flowery Branch8-352.41
14Locust Grove5-649.1914Sandy Creek7-451.34
15Cedar Shoals8-348.8715Cedartown5-650.37
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Cedar Grove10-175.331Rockmart11-068.31
2Peach County9-269.932Dublin10-166.40
3Calhoun11-068.873Dodge County10-160.28
4Monroe Area11-067.054Brooks County9-259.89
5Greater Atlanta Christian9-262.105Hapeville Charter10-159.26
6Westminster (Atlanta)7-457.716Washington County9-257.16
7Benedictine10-157.567Fitzgerald8-356.08
8Dawson County10-156.988Rabun County10-153.11
9Lovett6-553.529Heard County9-253.05
10Pace Academy6-553.3410Callaway9-252.72
11North Hall9-251.3011Thomasville7-451.16
12Pierce County11-051.3012Bremen9-250.63
13Westside (Macon)8-350.1813Swainsboro9-249.45
14Crisp County7-448.0514Vidalia9-245.17
15Jefferson8-346.3715Jefferson County9-244.00
A - Public A - Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1Irwin County10-071.921Athens Academy10-055.30
2Pelham10-065.692Eagle's Landing Christian9-154.56
3Clinch County9-161.083Prince Avenue Christian9-150.82
4Marion County10-050.474Savannah Christian9-143.93
5Mitchell County8-246.375George Walton Academy8-339.16
6Mount Zion (Carroll)9-142.246North Cobb Christian9-137.71
7Commerce9-241.347Hebron Christian Academy6-536.49
8Charlton County8-337.688Calvary Day9-135.04
9Schley County8-237.679Wesleyan7-433.56
10Chattahoochee County8-332.3810Darlington8-233.14
11Emanuel County Institute7-430.7211Fellowship Christian9-132.75
12Dooly County7-428.8012Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)8-331.35
13Trion8-328.7413Mount Vernon Presbyterian8-331.32
14Miller County7-328.5314Riverside Military Academy6-530.11
15Turner County6-527.6115Christian Heritage7-426.66

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
1 [1]Colquitt County1 - AAAAAAA11-0104.7468.251 [1]
2 [1]Lee County1 - AAAAAA11-090.9543.1792 [11]
3 [2]Grayson8 - AAAAAAA9-286.7150.5037 [28]
4 [3]Parkview7 - AAAAAAA11-086.1152.0732 [25]
5 [1]Mary Persons2 - AAAA11-084.0444.1588 [18]
6 [1]Rome7 - AAAAA11-082.4537.31141 [28]
7 [2]Warner Robins1 - AAAAA10-180.7355.4916 [2]
8 [4]Hillgrove3 - AAAAAAA11-079.1852.9525 [18]
9 [5]North Gwinnett6 - AAAAAAA9-278.4449.0246 [34]
10 [6]Tift County1 - AAAAAAA7-477.7367.292 [2]
11 [7]Lowndes1 - AAAAAAA8-377.5461.545 [5]
12 [2]Blessed Trinity7 - AAAA11-077.5043.1791 [19]
13 [8]Archer8 - AAAAAAA9-276.1552.2330 [23]
14 [9]Walton4 - AAAAAAA10-175.8253.3422 [15]
15 [3]Cartersville5 - AAAA11-075.3441.55105 [23]
16 [1]Cedar Grove5 - AAA10-175.3327.91228 [28]
17 [3]Dutchtown4 - AAAAA11-074.1941.18111 [19]
18 [10]McEachern3 - AAAAAAA8-373.5960.277 [7]
19 [11]Camden County1 - AAAAAAA7-472.1762.204 [4]
20 [1]Irwin County2 - A10-071.9229.49215 [4]
21 [4]St. Pius X8 - AAAA10-171.6545.7267 [12]
22 [12]Milton5 - AAAAAAA9-270.8451.3633 [26]
23 [2]Peach County4 - AAA9-269.9341.42108 [4]
24 [13]Marietta3 - AAAAAAA5-669.1764.913 [3]
25 [3]Calhoun6 - AAA11-068.8720.07322 [49]
26 [14]Westlake2 - AAAAAAA9-268.5750.5236 [27]
27 [15]Roswell4 - AAAAAAA9-268.3352.2131 [24]
28 [1]Rockmart7 - AA11-068.3120.39319 [36]
29 [4]Buford8 - AAAAA9-267.9336.76143 [29]
30 [5]Marist7 - AAAA9-267.6044.6081 [15]
31 [2]Creekview6 - AAAAAA11-067.2638.58131 [24]
32 [4]Monroe Area8 - AAA11-067.0532.65189 [20]
33 [3]Valdosta1 - AAAAAA7-466.9559.819 [2]
34 [16]Mill Creek6 - AAAAAAA8-366.5654.3819 [13]
35 [2]Dublin3 - AA10-166.4035.89157 [12]
36 [6]Troup5 - AAAA10-165.8145.8365 [11]
37 [5]Stockbridge4 - AAAAA10-165.7636.42148 [31]
38 [2]Pelham1 - A10-065.6910.83396 [37]
39 [4]Northside (Warner Robins)1 - AAAAAA6-563.9756.8111 [3]
40 [5]Greater Atlanta Christian7 - AAA9-262.1032.90183 [19]
41 [6]Kell7 - AAAAA9-261.4638.92126 [24]
42 [17]Norcross7 - AAAAAAA7-461.4452.3029 [22]
43 [5]Allatoona6 - AAAAAA8-361.4047.8955 [6]
44 [18]North Paulding3 - AAAAAAA7-461.3252.8627 [20]
45 [3]Clinch County2 - A9-161.0830.97203 [3]
46 [7]Pickens6 - AAAA11-060.8818.39349 [52]
47 [7]Jones County4 - AAAAA8-360.8748.9347 [6]
48 [8]Wayne County2 - AAAAA11-060.5837.80136 [26]
49 [3]Dodge County3 - AA10-160.2840.08119 [8]
50 [6]Harrison6 - AAAAAA9-260.2541.42109 [17]
51 [7]Sequoyah6 - AAAAAA9-260.2041.54106 [16]
52 [4]Brooks County1 - AA9-259.8945.5368 [2]
53 [5]Hapeville Charter6 - AA10-159.2618.96345 [46]
54 [19]North Cobb3 - AAAAAAA6-458.9355.4017 [12]
55 [20]West Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA6-558.7948.4751 [36]
56 [9]Bainbridge1 - AAAAA6-558.6053.9521 [4]
57 [10]Carrollton7 - AAAAA9-258.3240.23118 [21]
58 [11]Veterans1 - AAAAA8-358.2449.9240 [5]
59 [8]Coffee1 - AAAAAA8-358.0642.9694 [12]
60 [21]Brookwood7 - AAAAAAA7-457.9046.0264 [37]
61 [6]Westminster (Atlanta)5 - AAA7-457.7148.5550 [1]
62 [7]Benedictine3 - AAA10-157.5618.74347 [52]
63 [6]Washington County3 - AA9-257.1641.63104 [5]
64 [8]Dawson County7 - AAA10-156.9824.92265 [38]
65 [12]Ware County2 - AAAAA8-356.1245.0676 [13]
66 [9]Dacula8 - AAAAAA9-256.0938.79128 [21]
67 [7]Fitzgerald1 - AA8-356.0840.85113 [6]
68 [1]Athens Academy8 - A10-055.3028.39221 [2]
69 [22]Mountain View6 - AAAAAAA7-455.2348.7849 [35]
70 [23]East Coweta2 - AAAAAAA4-754.7659.4610 [8]
71 [2]Eagle's Landing Christian5 - A9-154.5622.53292 [11]
72 [8]Ridgeland6 - AAAA8-354.2132.83185 [32]
73 [9]North Oconee8 - AAAA9-253.6636.46145 [29]
74 [9]Lovett5 - AAA6-553.5243.7789 [3]
75 [10]Baldwin3 - AAAA6-553.4550.8935 [1]
76 [11]Upson-Lee2 - AAAA7-453.4249.1744 [2]
77 [10]Pace Academy5 - AAA6-553.3445.1673 [2]
78 [12]Burke County3 - AAAA8-353.2441.52107 [24]
79 [8]Rabun County8 - AA10-153.1121.09312 [33]
80 [10]Glynn Academy2 - AAAAAA7-453.0941.76103 [15]
81 [11]Johns Creek7 - AAAAAA9-253.0829.62211 [47]
82 [9]Heard County5 - AA9-253.0527.84229 [17]
83 [10]Callaway5 - AA9-252.7223.57279 [25]
84 [24]Newnan2 - AAAAAAA6-552.7049.0345 [33]
85 [13]Flowery Branch7 - AAAA8-352.4138.82127 [27]
86 [13]East Paulding7 - AAAAA7-452.1745.8266 [9]
87 [14]Sandy Creek5 - AAAA7-451.3442.7398 [20]
88 [11]North Hall7 - AAA9-251.3022.50294 [43]
89 [12]Pierce County2 - AAA11-051.3013.97380 [56]
90 [11]Thomasville1 - AA7-451.1646.0663 [1]
91 [3]Prince Avenue Christian8 - A9-150.8225.12260 [7]
92 [12]Bremen5 - AA9-250.6323.21282 [26]
93 [4]Marion County4 - A10-050.4720.42318 [18]
94 [15]Cedartown5 - AAAA5-650.3748.0553 [4]
95 [16]Cairo1 - AAAA9-250.3029.61213 [37]
96 [13]Westside (Macon)4 - AAA8-350.1835.56160 [11]
97 [25]South Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA5-650.0254.0520 [14]
98 [26]Cherokee4 - AAAAAAA5-649.8955.8614 [11]
99 [17]Eastside4 - AAAA11-049.5820.56317 [49]
100 [13]Swainsboro2 - AA9-249.4531.57200 [16]
101 [14]Locust Grove4 - AAAAA5-649.1954.9818 [3]
102 [18]Howard2 - AAAA6-549.1446.7460 [9]
103 [15]Cedar Shoals8 - AAAAA8-348.8736.42147 [31]
104 [14]Crisp County1 - AAA7-448.0540.78114 [5]
105 [27]Etowah4 - AAAAAAA4-747.8155.8713 [10]
106 [28]Pebblebrook2 - AAAAAAA4-747.7052.4728 [21]
107 [16]Clarke Central8 - AAAAA7-447.6042.09101 [18]
108 [29]Wheeler2 - AAAAAAA6-447.5844.9178 [39]
109 [19]Oconee County8 - AAAA6-547.1845.1175 [13]
110 [30]Collins Hill6 - AAAAAAA3-847.1061.386 [6]
111 [12]Lanier8 - AAAAAA8-346.7038.65130 [23]
112 [13]Dalton6 - AAAAAA6-446.6938.76129 [22]
113 [15]Jefferson8 - AAA8-346.3733.38182 [18]
114 [5]Mitchell County1 - A8-246.3713.93381 [30]
115 [20]Perry2 - AAAA6-546.2246.1462 [10]
116 [17]Banneker6 - AAAAA9-246.0823.12283 [46]
117 [21]Thomson3 - AAAA5-645.9447.5856 [6]
118 [31]Kennesaw Mountain3 - AAAAAAA4-645.8352.9724 [17]
119 [22]West Laurens2 - AAAA5-545.4644.2985 [16]
120 [16]Jackson4 - AAA7-445.3536.14152 [8]
121 [14]Centennial7 - AAAAAA7-445.1936.34149 [27]
122 [14]Vidalia2 - AA9-245.1724.96263 [21]
123 [18]Thomas County Central1 - AAAAA5-545.1645.3469 [10]
124 [15]Creekside5 - AAAAAA8-344.7734.18174 [37]
125 [23]Chapel Hill5 - AAAA6-444.3641.37110 [25]
126 [24]Stephens County8 - AAAA5-644.2447.9254 [5]
127 [15]Jefferson County4 - AA9-244.0022.51293 [27]
128 [32]Woodstock4 - AAAAAAA3-743.9753.1923 [16]
129 [33]Central Gwinnett7 - AAAAAAA4-743.9650.2438 [29]
130 [4]Savannah Christian3 - A9-143.9316.25368 [22]
131 [16]Habersham Central8 - AAAAAA7-443.7838.94125 [20]
132 [34]Forsyth Central5 - AAAAAAA7-443.1235.05165 [46]
133 [17]Richmond Hill2 - AAAAAA5-543.0945.0577 [9]
134 [18]Effingham County2 - AAAAAA7-442.7236.04155 [29]
135 [19]Bradwell Institute2 - AAAAAA5-642.7142.8897 [14]
136 [17]Liberty County2 - AAA7-342.6532.62190 [21]
137 [19]Griffin3 - AAAAA8-342.5429.15217 [38]
138 [6]Mount Zion (Carroll)6 - A9-142.2419.66331 [19]
139 [20]Harris County1 - AAAAA3-841.8555.6615 [1]
140 [25]Richmond Academy3 - AAAA7-441.7537.26142 [28]
141 [26]Carver (Columbus)1 - AAAA9-241.4828.66220 [39]
142 [7]Commerce8 - A9-241.3420.65314 [17]
143 [18]Appling County2 - AAA6-541.0535.22163 [12]
144 [35]Newton8 - AAAAAAA4-740.9349.2243 [32]
145 [16]Douglass6 - AA10-140.718.10407 [58]
146 [20]Stephenson4 - AAAAAA9-240.5122.71289 [57]
147 [21]Loganville8 - AAAAA5-640.4946.2861 [8]
148 [21]Douglas County5 - AAAAAA8-340.4732.50191 [42]
149 [22]Statesboro2 - AAAAA4-739.9745.3271 [12]
150 [36]South Gwinnett8 - AAAAAAA4-739.7849.3542 [31]
151 [22]Mays5 - AAAAAA6-539.5733.88178 [39]
152 [23]Riverwood6 - AAAAA8-339.5521.59303 [49]
153 [27]Woodward Academy4 - AAAA7-439.5124.84266 [45]
154 [37]North Forsyth5 - AAAAAAA3-739.2245.3172 [38]
155 [5]George Walton Academy8 - A8-339.1622.94284 [10]
156 [17]Early County1 - AA6-539.1142.2999 [4]
157 [23]Alpharetta7 - AAAAAA6-539.0236.31150 [28]
158 [24]Houston County1 - AAAAAA2-838.9159.938 [1]
159 [19]Pike County4 - AAA8-338.7015.26373 [55]
160 [25]Sprayberry6 - AAAAAA3-738.6947.4857 [7]
161 [24]Union Grove4 - AAAAA6-438.4832.78187 [34]
162 [25]New Hampstead2 - AAAAA5-538.3137.36140 [27]
163 [26]Southwest DeKalb5 - AAAAA10-138.1919.68330 [52]
164 [27]Villa Rica7 - AAAAA5-538.0739.20124 [23]
165 [38]Meadowcreek7 - AAAAAAA6-437.8933.44181 [47]
166 [6]North Cobb Christian6 - A9-137.7119.41335 [16]
167 [8]Charlton County2 - A8-337.6825.42256 [9]
168 [9]Schley County4 - A8-237.6716.33365 [27]
169 [26]Tucker4 - AAAAAA7-437.0129.00218 [48]
170 [18]Chattooga7 - AA9-236.9919.17339 [43]
171 [7]Hebron Christian Academy8 - A6-536.4930.51206 [1]
172 [28]Starr's Mill3 - AAAAA7-436.3827.31240 [41]
173 [29]Hiram7 - AAAAA4-636.3144.3184 [16]
174 [19]Union County8 - AA9-236.2511.59395 [57]
175 [28]Columbus1 - AAAA7-435.9629.79210 [36]
176 [39]Campbell2 - AAAAAAA1-935.9056.0212 [9]
177 [27]Grovetown3 - AAAAAA6-535.7034.07177 [38]
178 [29]Denmark7 - AAAA5-535.5439.48123 [26]
179 [20]Elbert County8 - AA7-435.4919.84327 [39]
180 [20]Jenkins3 - AAA8-335.3019.83328 [50]
181 [30]White County7 - AAAA3-835.1047.3958 [7]
182 [8]Calvary Day3 - A9-135.046.80411 [36]
183 [21]Bleckley County3 - AA4-634.7840.25117 [7]
184 [28]Winder-Barrow8 - AAAAAA2-834.4144.7879 [10]
185 [29]Northgate5 - AAAAAA6-534.2834.98167 [35]
186 [9]Wesleyan5 - A7-433.5627.18241 [4]
187 [40]Lambert5 - AAAAAAA3-733.5442.9495 [41]
188 [31]West Hall7 - AAAA3-733.4944.6080 [15]
189 [30]Brunswick2 - AAAAAA3-733.4242.8896 [14]
190 [10]Darlington6 - A8-233.1423.41281 [9]
191 [21]Southeast Bulloch3 - AAA9-233.1316.76360 [53]
192 [22]Haralson County6 - AAA8-332.9920.25321 [48]
193 [11]Fellowship Christian6 - A9-132.7512.90388 [29]
194 [31]Gainesville8 - AAAAAA2-932.7145.1574 [8]
195 [41]Lassiter4 - AAAAAAA1-932.5752.9326 [19]
196 [32]Pope7 - AAAAAA5-632.4035.42161 [32]
197 [10]Chattahoochee County1 - A8-332.3815.40372 [29]
198 [32]Salem4 - AAAA7-432.3723.69277 [47]
199 [23]Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe6 - AAA7-432.2923.72276 [40]
200 [22]Northeast3 - AA4-731.9839.74122 [9]
201 [23]Berrien1 - AA5-531.9736.16151 [11]
202 [24]Washington6 - AA7-431.8015.47371 [53]
203 [33]Apalachee8 - AAAAAA3-731.5440.42116 [19]
204 [12]Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)5 - A8-331.3520.05323 [14]
205 [33]Spalding2 - AAAA3-731.3441.99102 [22]
206 [13]Mount Vernon Presbyterian5 - A8-331.3219.06342 [19]
207 [24]Morgan County8 - AAA5-631.3034.54172 [16]
208 [34]South Cobb6 - AAAAAA2-831.1651.0734 [4]
209 [25]Hephzibah4 - AA8-330.7617.90352 [49]
210 [11]Emanuel County Institute3 - A7-430.7216.63361 [24]
211 [35]Evans3 - AAAAAA3-830.6237.91135 [26]
212 [25]North Murray6 - AAA6-530.5827.33239 [32]
213 [26]Central (Macon)4 - AAA3-730.5537.59138 [6]
214 [36]Greenbrier3 - AAAAAA3-830.5538.31132 [25]
215 [37]Hughes5 - AAAAAA4-630.5535.92156 [30]
216 [14]Riverside Military Academy8 - A6-530.1125.54254 [5]
217 [30]Walnut Grove8 - AAAAA2-829.9244.5882 [14]
218 [34]Westover1 - AAAA4-529.8129.53214 [38]
219 [35]LaGrange5 - AAAA2-829.7046.9959 [8]
220 [26]Southwest3 - AA3-729.6444.2386 [3]
221 [27]Jeff Davis2 - AA7-429.3022.02298 [29]
222 [27]Hart County8 - AAA4-729.0136.09154 [10]
223 [31]Arabia Mountain5 - AAAAA6-528.9425.22259 [44]
224 [38]Lakeside (Evans)3 - AAAAAA5-528.8630.04209 [46]
225 [28]Ringgold6 - AAA5-628.8429.61212 [25]
226 [36]Hardaway1 - AAAA5-528.8227.83230 [42]
227 [12]Dooly County4 - A7-428.8021.29308 [15]
228 [13]Trion6 - A8-328.7417.75354 [22]
229 [14]Miller County1 - A7-328.5313.45385 [31]
230 [39]Lovejoy4 - AAAAAA6-528.4828.13226 [51]
231 [32]Woodland (Cartersville)7 - AAAAA4-628.2838.12134 [25]
232 [33]Eagle's Landing4 - AAAAA2-828.1344.4683 [15]
233 [40]Alexander5 - AAAAAA3-728.0035.33162 [33]
234 [34]Woodland (Stockbridge)4 - AAAAA3-727.9439.76120 [22]
235 [41]Northview7 - AAAAAA5-527.6528.27224 [50]
236 [15]Turner County2 - A6-527.6126.13248 [8]
237 [35]Riverdale3 - AAAAA7-427.4522.69290 [48]
238 [42]Duluth6 - AAAAAAA4-627.2337.42139 [45]
239 [36]Maynard Jackson6 - AAAAA6-526.9821.38307 [50]
240 [28]Harlem4 - AA7-426.8417.93351 [48]
241 [37]Madison County8 - AAAA2-826.8242.23100 [21]
242 [15]Christian Heritage6 - A7-426.6621.58305 [13]
243 [38]Central (Carrollton)5 - AAAA2-826.6148.9148 [3]
244 [16]Mount Paran Christian6 - A7-426.5916.52362 [21]
245 [43]Peachtree Ridge6 - AAAAAAA1-926.5749.6541 [30]
246 [44]Rockdale County8 - AAAAAAA3-726.5537.78137 [44]
247 [37]Jonesboro3 - AAAAA5-626.5431.83196 [35]
248 [29]Pepperell7 - AA6-526.4524.81268 [22]
249 [39]Heritage (Ringgold)6 - AAAA5-626.1330.74205 [34]
250 [29]Windsor Forest3 - AAA6-526.1319.57334 [51]
251 [16]Wilcox County2 - A5-626.1324.75269 [10]
252 [42]Heritage (Conyers)3 - AAAAAA3-725.9432.34192 [43]
253 [38]Carver (Atlanta)6 - AAAAA5-625.8929.38216 [37]
254 [17]Greene County7 - A8-225.7010.53398 [39]
255 [17]Holy Innocents5 - A6-525.5719.27337 [17]
256 [30]Cook1 - AAA3-825.4736.61144 [7]
257 [18]Brookstone4 - A7-425.2510.21400 [32]
258 [40]Northside (Columbus)1 - AAAA4-624.9430.17208 [35]
259 [31]Franklin County8 - AAA3-724.4834.63169 [14]
260 [41]Northwest Whitfield6 - AAAA6-524.3320.01324 [50]
261 [42]Americus-Sumter1 - AAAA3-724.2534.73168 [30]
262 [43]Mundy's Mill4 - AAAAAA6-524.2223.45280 [56]
263 [39]South Effingham2 - AAAAA2-824.1540.57115 [20]
264 [30]Metter2 - AA6-424.1320.63316 [35]
265 [45]Shiloh8 - AAAAAAA2-823.8938.14133 [43]
266 [44]Cambridge7 - AAAAAA3-723.7635.14164 [34]
267 [31]Toombs County2 - AA5-623.6025.98251 [19]
268 [40]Paulding County7 - AAAAA1-923.5048.1752 [7]
269 [45]North Atlanta7 - AAAAAA5-523.2924.46270 [55]
270 [18]Telfair County2 - A4-623.2226.41246 [7]
271 [32]Screven County4 - AA6-522.7521.91300 [30]
272 [41]Johnson (Gainesville)8 - AAAAA4-622.1830.43207 [36]
273 [46]South Paulding5 - AAAAAA2-821.8734.58170 [36]
274 [19]Mount de Sales7 - A9-221.599.61401 [33]
275 [19]Macon County4 - A5-621.5721.86301 [13]
276 [33]Spencer5 - AA3-821.5035.83158 [13]
277 [20]Manchester4 - A6-521.3816.46364 [25]
278 [42]Cass7 - AAAAA1-921.0943.1890 [17]
279 [46]Discovery6 - AAAAAAA1-920.9443.0293 [40]
280 [32]Adairsville6 - AAA4-620.9126.49245 [34]
281 [20]Aquinas7 - A9-220.798.08408 [35]
282 [43]Ola4 - AAAAA1-920.7045.3270 [12]
283 [21]Montgomery County3 - A8-320.379.07404 [43]
284 [33]Monroe1 - AAA5-620.1927.34238 [31]
285 [21]Whitefield Academy6 - A6-420.0314.20379 [27]
286 [47]Alcovy3 - AAAAAA2-819.9735.58159 [31]
287 [34]Coosa7 - AA4-719.6526.54244 [18]
288 [43]Cross Creek3 - AAAA3-619.2531.79197 [33]
289 [35]South Atlanta6 - AA6-518.6913.51384 [55]
290 [44]Henry County4 - AAAA4-718.5226.05250 [43]
291 [45]Hampton4 - AAAA4-618.4422.81287 [48]
292 [44]Lithonia5 - AAAAA6-518.4117.61357 [54]
293 [36]Butler4 - AA5-518.3717.65355 [51]
294 [22]Taylor County4 - A5-617.6318.86346 [21]
295 [48]Tri-Cities5 - AAAAAA1-917.4133.65180 [40]
296 [34]Sonoraville6 - AAA4-617.3924.12274 [39]
297 [45]Decatur6 - AAAAA4-617.3421.28309 [51]
298 [49]Morrow4 - AAAAAA3-717.2028.78219 [49]
299 [46]Shaw1 - AAAA3-717.1027.83231 [42]
300 [22]Tattnall Square7 - A6-517.0012.77390 [30]
301 [50]New Manchester5 - AAAAAA2-816.7731.79199 [45]
302 [23]Savannah Country Day3 - A7-416.648.89405 [34]
303 [47]LaFayette6 - AAAA5-516.6118.19350 [53]
304 [51]Drew4 - AAAAAA3-716.5326.10249 [52]
305 [37]Bacon County2 - AA2-816.5133.73179 [14]
306 [23]Claxton3 - A6-516.3416.79359 [23]
307 [35]Jackson County8 - AAA3-716.0028.33222 [26]
308 [38]Monticello8 - AA5-615.3921.19311 [32]
309 [24]Seminole County1 - A5-614.9422.59291 [12]
310 [25]Atkinson County2 - A3-714.8028.33223 [5]
311 [26]Hancock Central7 - A6-514.2410.76397 [38]
312 [46]McIntosh3 - AAAAA3-714.0824.13272 [45]
313 [24]St. Francis6 - A5-513.6012.32394 [31]
314 [36]Tattnall County2 - AAA2-913.2934.30173 [17]
315 [52]River Ridge6 - AAAAAA1-913.2450.2039 [5]
316 [27]Jenkins County3 - A5-513.0910.45399 [40]
317 [53]Forest Park4 - AAAAAA3-712.9819.72329 [58]
318 [47]North Springs6 - AAAAA3-712.8722.90285 [47]
319 [37]Beach3 - AAA4-612.8525.41257 [35]
320 [38]Islands3 - AAA3-712.8121.44306 [47]
321 [54]Dunwoody7 - AAAAAA2-812.5831.79198 [45]
322 [25]Strong Rock Christian5 - A3-712.4427.44236 [3]
323 [48]Miller Grove5 - AAAAA3-812.3027.65233 [40]
324 [55]Mount Zion (Jonesboro)4 - AAAAAA2-812.0624.83267 [54]
325 [49]Columbia5 - AAAAA2-812.0227.81232 [39]
326 [26]Stratford Academy7 - A5-611.6414.69376 [24]
327 [39]Glenn Hills4 - AA3-711.4719.86326 [38]
328 [39]Fannin County7 - AAA4-711.4222.71288 [42]
329 [48]Luella4 - AAAA3-711.3925.58253 [44]
330 [40]Laney4 - AA4-611.1019.06341 [44]
331 [27]Pinecrest Academy6 - A4-611.0014.52377 [25]
332 [56]M.L. King4 - AAAAAA1-910.9625.86252 [53]
333 [40]Worth County1 - AAA1-910.6636.12153 [9]
334 [41]Lamar County5 - AA4-610.3025.25258 [20]
335 [57]Chattahoochee7 - AAAAAA0-109.6932.89184 [41]
336 [42]Banks County8 - AA4-68.7414.77375 [54]
337 [50]Whitewater3 - AAAAA1-98.6132.81186 [33]
338 [41]Brantley County2 - AAA2-88.2227.52234 [29]
339 [49]Chestatee7 - AAAA1-97.8944.1887 [17]
340 [28]Terrell County1 - A4-67.8116.33366 [27]
341 [50]Southeast Whitfield6 - AAAA3-77.6023.88275 [46]
342 [28]Mount Pisgah Christian6 - A3-77.5819.13340 [18]
343 [42]East Hall7 - AAA3-77.0731.41201 [24]
344 [29]Johnson County3 - A6-46.821.82416 [48]
345 [43]B.E.S.T. Academy6 - AA3-76.6732.78188 [15]
346 [44]Gordon Central7 - AA3-75.9317.79353 [50]
347 [30]Bowdon6 - A1-95.6027.36237 [6]
348 [29]Providence Christian8 - A4-65.1817.56358 [20]
349 [51]Grady6 - AAAAA1-95.1226.40247 [43]
350 [30]First Presbyterian7 - A3-74.8614.78374 [23]
351 [31]Washington-Wilkes7 - A3-74.7713.39386 [32]
352 [32]Gordon Lee6 - A2-84.6524.13273 [11]
353 [33]Calhoun County1 - A3-74.5819.65332 [20]
354 [34]Warren County7 - A5-53.621.38417 [49]
355 [35]Lincoln County7 - A4-63.437.36409 [45]
356 [47]Lakeside (Atlanta)7 - AAAAAAA1-93.3239.75121 [42]
357 [51]Dougherty1 - AAAA0-83.3134.14176 [31]
358 [45]Model7 - AA2-83.3119.62333 [40]
359 [52]Fayette County3 - AAAAA0-102.9727.10242 [42]
360 [46]Putnam County8 - AA3-72.8920.65315 [34]
361 [31]Athens Christian8 - A3-72.4922.44295 [12]
362 [43]Coahulla Creek6 - AAA1-92.0124.93264 [37]
363 [36]Towns County8 - A3-71.7232.29193 [1]
364 [47]East Laurens3 - AA1-90.6736.45146 [10]
365 [48]Therrell6 - AA2-80.2921.27310 [31]
366 [37]Hawkinsville4 - A4-6-0.2812.70391 [35]
367 [38]McIntosh County Academy3 - A1-9-0.5720.76313 [16]
368 [44]Lumpkin County7 - AAA3-7-1.0716.50363 [54]
369 [52]North Clayton4 - AAAA1-9-1.5427.93227 [40]
370 [32]Landmark Christian5 - A2-8-1.6219.99325 [15]
371 [48]Berkmar7 - AAAAAAA3-7-1.9930.91204 [48]
372 [33]King's Ridge Christian6 - A1-9-2.1814.46378 [26]
373 [49]Armuchee7 - AA2-8-2.4219.26338 [42]
374 [50]Bryan County2 - AA1-8-2.5523.57278 [25]
375 [51]Westside (Augusta)4 - AA1-9-2.7122.36296 [28]
376 [34]Lakeview Academy8 - A1-9-2.8325.51255 [6]
377 [45]Johnson (Savannah)3 - AAA2-8-3.1921.97299 [45]
378 [53]Lithia Springs6 - AAAAA2-8-3.6417.63356 [53]
379 [52]Social Circle8 - AA4-6-3.844.55415 [59]
380 [53]McNair6 - AA3-7-4.0015.94369 [52]
381 [54]KIPP Atlanta Collegiate6 - AA2-8-4.6818.47348 [47]
382 [55]Temple5 - AA1-9-4.8724.44271 [23]
383 [56]Jordan5 - AA2-8-5.6320.36320 [37]
384 [39]Greenville4 - A3-7-5.737.17410 [46]
385 [35]Pacelli4 - A4-6-6.866.58412 [37]
386 [40]Lanier County2 - A0-10-7.4631.27202 [2]
387 [46]Stone Mountain5 - AAA2-8-8.0235.04166 [13]
388 [41]Baconton Charter1 - A3-7-8.2012.64392 [36]
389 [42]Portal3 - A2-8-8.3712.81389 [34]
390 [57]Dade County7 - AA1-9-8.7818.99343 [45]
391 [36]Walker6 - A1-9-9.4113.60383 [28]
392 [43]Wilkinson County7 - A1-9-9.7616.28367 [28]
393 [47]Long County2 - AAA0-10-9.8334.54171 [16]
394 [58]Josey4 - AA0-10-11.4019.37336 [41]
395 [48]Groves3 - AAA1-9-12.4626.97243 [33]
396 [53]Druid Hills4 - AAAA2-8-12.5615.76370 [54]
397 [49]Cherokee Bluff7 - AAA0-10-12.8732.04194 [22]
398 [50]Murray County6 - AAA0-10-13.7122.34297 [44]
399 [51]Redan5 - AAA1-9-14.3328.26225 [27]
400 [54]Chamblee5 - AAAAA0-10-14.4734.16175 [32]
401 [58]Osborne6 - AAAAAA0-10-14.5241.15112 [18]
402 [52]Kendrick4 - AAA1-9-14.8627.49235 [30]
403 [44]Stewart County1 - A2-8-15.5012.98387 [33]
404 [37]Georgia Military College7 - A3-7-15.52-1.77419 [38]
405 [54]Gilmer6 - AAAA0-10-15.5918.98344 [51]
406 [38]Our Lady of Mercy5 - A0-10-17.2025.09261 [8]
407 [45]Treutlen3 - A3-7-18.084.72414 [47]
408 [53]East Jackson8 - AAA1-9-18.7222.84286 [41]
409 [46]Crawford County4 - A3-7-19.73-1.35418 [50]
410 [54]Rutland4 - AAA0-10-19.9731.95195 [23]
411 [55]Savannah3 - AAA0-10-20.4221.59304 [46]
412 [59]Oglethorpe County8 - AA0-10-24.7012.47393 [56]
413 [56]Towers5 - AAA0-10-25.8325.03262 [36]
414 [55]Clarkston5 - AAAAA†0-10-30.7213.69382 [55]
415 [47]Twiggs County7 - A0-10-33.738.69406 [44]
416 [48]Wheeler County3 - A1-9-35.399.20403 [42]
417 [1]ACE Charter7 - A†4-6-35.82-18.86420 [1]
418 [49]Central (Talbotton)4 - A0-10-40.169.43402 [41]
419 [50]Randolph-Clay1 - A0-10-41.0821.84302 [14]
420 [2]Pataula Charter1 - A†2-7-56.59-38.11422 [3]
421 [3]Glascock County7 - A†1-8-1-63.47-24.81421 [2]
422 [56]Cross Keys5 - AAAAA†0-10-86.345.24413 [56]
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
11 - AAAAAAA95.9781.53
21 - AAAAAA81.1363.30
33 - AAAAAAA78.0165.00
48 - AAAAAAA77.4844.45
57 - AAAAAAA73.2244.18
61 - AAAAA72.0255.90
72 - AAAA71.3249.64
87 - AAAAA70.5343.08
94 - AAAAAAA70.1252.30
106 - AAAAAAA69.9645.16
117 - AAAA69.1743.53
125 - AAAA68.6248.80
134 - AAAAA68.4745.04
146 - AAAAAA66.3845.12
155 - AAA66.3438.43
165 - AAAAAAA64.5448.62
172 - AAAAAAA64.2051.02
188 - AAAA63.8748.51
193 - AA62.6541.34
202 - A61.5130.08
218 - AAAAA59.7242.43
221 - AA59.5247.95
234 - AAA59.4135.25
242 - AAAAA57.6943.93
257 - AAA57.4221.34
263 - AAAA55.2744.06
278 - AAA54.7528.98
288 - AAAAAA53.3540.61
296 - AAAA52.9823.95
306 - AAA52.8324.40
312 - AAAAAA52.7642.98
325 - AA52.6025.08
338 - A51.8727.33
 8-Div A - A51.8233.22
 8-Div B - A38.8823.05
347 - AA51.5815.24
351 - A50.8513.43
367 - AAAAAA48.6129.35
376 - AA47.0515.91
382 - AAA46.8725.64
391 - AAAA46.3828.66
405 - AAAAAA46.0930.46
412 - AA45.2926.79
423 - AAA45.1615.91
435 - A44.9823.11
448 - AA43.2914.96
454 - AAAA42.5619.69
466 - A42.1918.91
 6-Div A - A41.7126.61
 6-Div B - A29.8312.67
474 - A41.4813.13
 4-Div A - A37.988.34
 4-Div B - A33.1716.52
486 - AAAAA41.0721.15
491 - AAA39.5824.94
503 - AAAAA39.3522.72
513 - AAAAAA39.0028.64
524 - AAAAAA38.8721.72
533 - A37.7611.70
 3-Div A - A37.2116.89
 3-Div B - A24.956.24
544 - AA37.4117.24
555 - AAAAA31.3716.99
567 - A26.716.93
 7-Div B - A23.098.57
 7-Div A - A19.144.70

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct Likelihood
09/21RoswellWheeler36 - 3719.6787.7%0.215
08/24Cedar ShoalsWinder-Barrow7 - 1415.5382.5%0.243
10/26Mundy's MillForest Park12 - 3612.3177.4%0.249
09/14Mount Zion (Carroll)Christian Heritage22 - 3014.5181.0%0.254
09/07Tattnall SquareLincoln County28 - 3414.6581.2%0.260
09/21Brooks CountyThomas County Central14 - 2413.6579.7%0.260
09/21BainbridgeCrisp County0 - 2311.6376.2%0.262
11/09MariettaEast Coweta26 - 2815.4982.5%0.267
09/28Gordon CentralDade County12 - 1315.7982.9%0.268
08/17ChattoogaAdairsville20 - 2115.0081.8%0.280
10/19Dooly CountyTaylor County19 - 4710.1073.3%0.284
09/07SalemAlcovy20 - 2313.4879.4%0.292
08/31North OconeeLoganville14 - 2012.0977.0%0.301
09/21Jeff DavisBacon County17 - 2411.7176.3%0.303
09/07NewnanGriffin17 - 2611.2475.5%0.304

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
89.5509/21Colquitt CountyGrayson26 - 1416.9584.5%
82.8609/14Colquitt CountyWarner Robins41 - 1422.9390.8%
80.6209/14ParkviewTift County31 - 287.3167.5%
79.6008/31ParkviewLowndes39 - 279.6572.4%
79.5310/26Colquitt CountyTift County45 - 725.9393.0%
78.8208/17Warner RobinsTift County40 - 294.0860.1%
78.2610/11GraysonArcher41 - 1411.6476.2%
78.2611/16ParkviewArcher - 11.0475.1%
78.0411/02Colquitt CountyLowndes40 - 628.2794.4%
77.6210/19LowndesTift County17 - 210.8952.2%
77.0709/14North GwinnettWalton24 - 271.5453.9%
77.0111/16HillgroveWalton - 4.4460.9%
75.3010/05HillgroveMcEachern31 - 216.6766.1%
74.4511/02Tift CountyCamden County24 - 284.4961.0%
74.4509/07Cedar GroveMcEachern17 - 240.6751.7%