High School Sports Blog

Maxwell 2018 preseason rankings

Colquitt County, 2016 Class AAAAAA winners, may have the best schedule to watch in 2018 as they play in four of the eight highest rated match ups.
Colquitt County, 2016 Class AAAAAA winners, may have the best schedule to watch in 2018 as they play in four of the eight highest rated match ups.
By Loren Maxwell
Aug 13, 2018

The Maxwell Ratings will rank the Georgia High School Association's 422 teams throughout the 2018 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.

Interesting results:

- By the middle of last season it was practically a given Grayson would meet Lowndes for the state title, but each were surprisingly dumped in the second round.  Still, the consistent strong performance of the Rams over the past few years (in spite of three different head coaches) makes them the computer’s Class AAAAAAA favorites for the 2018 season.  Colquitt County, last season’s runner-up, looks to challenge Grayson for the title.  The schools will provide us with a preview of that possible title game in September, which is the computer’s highest rated match of the season at this point.  North Gwinnett, last season’s dark horse champion, is ranked sixth, behind staples Lowndes, McEachern, and Mill Creek.  Archer rounds out the list of teams with more than a 5% chance of claiming the title.

- Cartersville was the only top rated team from last year that did not win its classification's title, falling to eventual champion Blessed Trinity in the second round.  That loss broke a 41-game winning streak and dropped Joey King to a 53-3 record in four years with two state titles, but the computer expects Cartersville to shake off the loss and gives them better than a 63% chance to win the title this season.  Both of the Purple Hurricanes' strongest competitors can be found in region 7-AAAA, where defending champion Blessed Trinity and state runner-up Marist will be looking to claim the title as well.  There is an 89% chance one of these three teams will walk away with the trophy in December.

- Benedictine took an unusual path to become the preseason favorite: not only did the Cadets make an unexpected early exit from last year's tournament to eventual AA champion Hapeville Charter, they also moved up from AA to AAA.  It'll be interesting to see if Danny Britt, who is 65-5 with two state titles at Benedictine over the last five years, can fend off defending champion Calhoun along with perennial power Greater Atlanta Christian and last season's bitter runner-up, Peach County, and semifinalist Cedar Grove.

- Competition in Class AAAAAA is expected to be extremely tight, although the computer gives a slight nod to defending champion Lee County.  Still the Trojans must potentially face the likes of region rivals Coffee and Valdosta, along with Tucker, Northside (Warner Robins), Mays, and Glynn Academy, all of which have better than one-in-twenty odds to take home the trophy.

- In AAAAA, defending champion Rome, last season’s highest rated team among all classifications, returns as the favorite with powerhouse Buford close behind.  There is a 90.1% chance this season's title will belong to one of these two, although Stockbridge is a distant dark horse with about a 5.6% chance of winning the title.

- Benedictine’s elevation to Class AAA only helps last year’s AA champion, Hapeville Charter, who is the favorite entering the season.  Their closest rival is Rabun County while Brooks County is a remote outsider.

- Class A-Public continues to be one of the hottest contested classifications in the GHSA.  Clinch County, who finished last season atop the heap, starts as the favorite, however Irwin County, Macon County, ECI, and Manchester all expect to compete as well.

- No favorite is as overwhelming as Class A-Private Eagle’s Landing Christian.  The Chargers have won three state titles in a row and the computer says they have nearly an 85% chance to make it four.  No other team has a greater than 5% chance of taking the title.

- Just as last season, the outlook should soon become clearer as several top games are scheduled early in the season, including four of the top-15 match ups on opening weekend with six more scheduled before most of the state fully embraces region play in October.  And, just as last season, Colquitt County may again have the best schedule to watch as they play in four of the eight highest rated match ups, including the top three, while once more facing down the toughest slate in the state.

Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings

As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.

The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 100.00%.

For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 0 of 0 total games including 0 tie(s) (--.--%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within --.-- points.

The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.

All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free e-mail newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.

Home Advantage: 1.27

By Class

AAAAAAA AAAAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1 Grayson 0-0 94.23 1 Lee County 0-0 79.15
2 Colquitt County 0-0 92.34 2 Tucker 0-0 78.04
3 Lowndes 0-0 87.34 3 Coffee 0-0 75.32
4 McEachern 0-0 85.78 4 Valdosta 0-0 74.60
5 Mill Creek 0-0 85.24 5 Northside (Warner Robins) 0-0 74.47
6 North Gwinnett 0-0 84.49 6 Mays 0-0 74.42
7 Archer 0-0 83.81 7 Glynn Academy 0-0 74.05
8 Tift County 0-0 78.65 8 Allatoona 0-0 68.40
9 Brookwood 0-0 78.29 9 Harrison 0-0 67.32
10 Walton 0-0 77.98 10 Dalton 0-0 64.91
11 Norcross 0-0 76.07 11 Dacula 0-0 62.63
12 Parkview 0-0 75.03 12 Brunswick 0-0 61.38
13 Hillgrove 0-0 73.34 13 Houston County 0-0 61.37
14 Roswell 0-0 72.20 14 Hughes 0-0 61.35
15 South Forsyth 0-0 71.59 15 Alpharetta 0-0 61.24
AAAAA AAAA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1 Rome 0-0 91.93 1 Cartersville 0-0 86.65
2 Buford 0-0 87.38 2 Blessed Trinity 0-0 74.77
3 Stockbridge 0-0 77.04 3 Marist 0-0 72.92
4 Warner Robins 0-0 68.88 4 Thomson 0-0 67.32
5 Jones County 0-0 67.80 5 Woodward Academy 0-0 65.32
6 Ware County 0-0 65.48 6 Mary Persons 0-0 64.60
7 Carrollton 0-0 64.47 7 Burke County 0-0 63.78
8 Kell 0-0 62.62 8 St. Pius X 0-0 61.04
9 Starr's Mill 0-0 62.54 9 Sandy Creek 0-0 60.38
10 Bainbridge 0-0 60.18 10 Cedartown 0-0 57.26
11 Griffin 0-0 58.13 11 Ridgeland 0-0 57.01
12 Carver (Atlanta) 0-0 58.09 12 Troup 0-0 56.72
13 Dutchtown 0-0 57.37 13 Cairo 0-0 54.65
14 Wayne County 0-0 57.31 14 West Laurens 0-0 51.97
15 Eagle's Landing 0-0 55.86 15 Flowery Branch 0-0 51.37
AAA AA
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1 Benedictine 0-0 79.95 1 Hapeville Charter 0-0 73.10
2 Greater Atlanta Christian 0-0 73.34 2 Rabun County 0-0 69.83
3 Calhoun 0-0 72.33 3 Brooks County 0-0 63.24
4 Peach County 0-0 69.68 4 Fitzgerald 0-0 59.68
5 Cedar Grove 0-0 69.56 5 Callaway 0-0 58.04
6 Jefferson 0-0 63.96 6 Screven County 0-0 57.08
7 Lovett 0-0 58.29 7 Thomasville 0-0 56.55
8 Westminster (Atlanta) 0-0 57.76 8 Heard County 0-0 55.59
9 Crisp County 0-0 55.01 9 Dodge County 0-0 53.05
10 Pace Academy 0-0 52.92 10 Jefferson County 0-0 51.76
11 Liberty County 0-0 52.03 11 Vidalia 0-0 49.24
12 Westside (Macon) 0-0 47.52 12 Rockmart 0-0 46.48
13 Jenkins 0-0 47.07 13 Pepperell 0-0 46.21
14 Dawson County 0-0 44.74 14 Toombs County 0-0 45.39
15 Cook 0-0 44.19 15 Elbert County 0-0 43.40
A-Public A-Private
Rank Team Rec Rating Rank Team Rec Rating
1 Clinch County 0-0 54.64 1 Eagle's Landing Christian 0-0 75.83
2 Macon County 0-0 51.63 2 Mount Paran Christian 0-0 51.61
3 Irwin County 0-0 51.46 3 Prince Avenue Christian 0-0 51.39
4 Emanuel County Institute 0-0 49.41 4 Wesleyan 0-0 49.49
5 Manchester 0-0 47.03 5 Athens Academy 0-0 49.36
6 Mount Zion (Carroll) 0-0 42.43 6 Calvary Day 0-0 46.57
7 Commerce 0-0 38.80 7 Stratford Academy 0-0 43.48
8 Charlton County 0-0 38.68 8 Darlington 0-0 41.47
9 Lincoln County 0-0 37.86 9 Aquinas 0-0 39.11
10 Dooly County 0-0 36.53 10 Mount Pisgah Christian 0-0 38.45
11 Marion County 0-0 35.26 11 Savannah Christian 0-0 36.00
12 Turner County 0-0 34.52 12 Tattnall Square 0-0 34.37
13 Washington-Wilkes 0-0 33.38 13 Fellowship Christian 0-0 33.51
14 Trion 0-0 32.91 14 First Presbyterian 0-0 32.77
15 Taylor County 0-0 32.75 15 Savannah Country Day 0-0 29.84

All-Class

Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.

Rank Team Region Rec Rating SchStr Rank
1 [1] Grayson 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 94.23    
2 [2] Colquitt County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 92.34    
3 [1] Rome 7 - AAAAA 0-0 91.93    
4 [2] Buford 8 - AAAAA 0-0 87.38    
5 [3] Lowndes 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 87.34    
6 [1] Cartersville 5 - AAAA 0-0 86.65    
7 [4] McEachern 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 85.78    
8 [5] Mill Creek 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 85.24    
9 [6] North Gwinnett 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 84.49    
10 [7] Archer 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 83.81    
11 [1] Benedictine 3 - AAA 0-0 79.95    
12 [1] Lee County 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 79.15    
13 [8] Tift County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 78.65    
14 [9] Brookwood 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 78.29    
15 [2] Tucker 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 78.04    
16 [10] Walton 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 77.98    
17 [3] Stockbridge 4 - AAAAA 0-0 77.04    
18 [11] Norcross 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 76.07    
19 [1] Eagle's Landing Christian 5 - A 0-0 75.83    
20 [3] Coffee 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 75.32    
21 [12] Parkview 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 75.03    
22 [2] Blessed Trinity 7 - AAAA 0-0 74.77    
23 [4] Valdosta 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 74.60    
24 [5] Northside (Warner Robins) 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 74.47    
25 [6] Mays 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 74.42    
26 [7] Glynn Academy 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 74.05    
27 [2] Greater Atlanta Christian 7 - AAA 0-0 73.34    
28 [13] Hillgrove 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 73.34    
29 [1] Hapeville Charter 6 - AA 0-0 73.10    
30 [3] Marist 7 - AAAA 0-0 72.92    
31 [3] Calhoun 6 - AAA 0-0 72.33    
32 [14] Roswell 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 72.20    
33 [15] South Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 71.59    
34 [16] North Cobb 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 71.10    
35 [17] Milton 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 70.46    
36 [2] Rabun County 8 - AA 0-0 69.83    
37 [18] North Paulding 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 69.76    
38 [4] Peach County 4 - AAA 0-0 69.68    
39 [5] Cedar Grove 5 - AAA 0-0 69.56    
40 [4] Warner Robins 1 - AAAAA 0-0 68.88    
41 [19] Newton 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 68.82    
42 [8] Allatoona 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 68.40    
43 [5] Jones County 4 - AAAAA 0-0 67.80    
44 [9] Harrison 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 67.32    
45 [4] Thomson 3 - AAAA 0-0 67.32    
46 [20] Mountain View 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 67.29    
47 [21] Etowah 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 67.22    
48 [22] Westlake 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 66.92    
49 [23] Woodstock 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 66.35    
50 [6] Ware County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 65.48    
51 [5] Woodward Academy 4 - AAAA 0-0 65.32    
52 [24] West Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 65.23    
53 [25] Lassiter 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 65.02    
54 [10] Dalton 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 64.91    
55 [6] Mary Persons 2 - AAAA 0-0 64.60    
56 [7] Carrollton 7 - AAAAA 0-0 64.47    
57 [6] Jefferson 8 - AAA 0-0 63.96    
58 [7] Burke County 3 - AAAA 0-0 63.78    
59 [26] Marietta 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 63.73    
60 [3] Brooks County 1 - AA 0-0 63.24    
61 [11] Dacula 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 62.63    
62 [8] Kell 7 - AAAAA 0-0 62.62    
63 [9] Starr's Mill 3 - AAAAA 0-0 62.54    
64 [27] Camden County 1 - AAAAAAA 0-0 61.87    
65 [28] South Gwinnett 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 61.42    
66 [12] Brunswick 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 61.38    
67 [13] Houston County 1 - AAAAAA 0-0 61.37    
68 [14] Hughes 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 61.35    
69 [29] Collins Hill 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 61.28    
70 [15] Alpharetta 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 61.24    
71 [8] St. Pius X 8 - AAAA 0-0 61.04    
72 [16] Alexander 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 60.73    
73 [9] Sandy Creek 5 - AAAA 0-0 60.38    
74 [17] Stephenson 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 60.23    
75 [10] Bainbridge 1 - AAAAA 0-0 60.18    
76 [4] Fitzgerald 1 - AA 0-0 59.68    
77 [18] Douglas County 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 59.37    
78 [19] Effingham County 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 59.28    
79 [20] Northgate 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 58.86    
80 [7] Lovett 5 - AAA 0-0 58.29    
81 [30] Central Gwinnett 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 58.27    
82 [31] East Coweta 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 58.23    
83 [11] Griffin 3 - AAAAA 0-0 58.13    
84 [12] Carver (Atlanta) 6 - AAAAA 0-0 58.09    
85 [5] Callaway 5 - AA 0-0 58.04    
86 [32] Peachtree Ridge 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 57.78    
87 [8] Westminster (Atlanta) 5 - AAA 0-0 57.76    
88 [13] Dutchtown 4 - AAAAA 0-0 57.37    
89 [14] Wayne County 2 - AAAAA 0-0 57.31    
90 [10] Cedartown 5 - AAAA 0-0 57.26    
91 [6] Screven County 4 - AA 0-0 57.08    
92 [11] Ridgeland 6 - AAAA 0-0 57.01    
93 [12] Troup 5 - AAAA 0-0 56.72    
94 [7] Thomasville 1 - AA 0-0 56.55    
95 [21] Creekview 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.89    
96 [15] Eagle's Landing 4 - AAAAA 0-0 55.86    
97 [8] Heard County 5 - AA 0-0 55.59    
98 [22] Richmond Hill 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.27    
99 [23] Sequoyah 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.20    
100 [24] Centennial 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 55.05    
101 [9] Crisp County 1 - AAA 0-0 55.01    
102 [13] Cairo 1 - AAAA 0-0 54.65    
103 [1] Clinch County 2 - A 0-0 54.64    
104 [25] Lovejoy 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 54.33    
105 [16] Woodland (Stockbridge) 4 - AAAAA 0-0 54.04    
106 [26] Lanier 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 53.89    
107 [33] Newnan 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 53.42    
108 [34] Lambert 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 53.40    
109 [9] Dodge County 3 - AA 0-0 53.05    
110 [10] Pace Academy 5 - AAA 0-0 52.92    
111 [17] East Paulding 7 - AAAAA 0-0 52.86    
112 [11] Liberty County 2 - AAA 0-0 52.03    
113 [14] West Laurens 2 - AAAA 0-0 51.97    
114 [10] Jefferson County 4 - AA 0-0 51.76    
115 [2] Macon County 4 - A 0-0 51.63    
116 [2] Mount Paran Christian 6 - A 0-0 51.61    
117 [3] Irwin County 2 - A 0-0 51.46    
118 [3] Prince Avenue Christian 8 - A 0-0 51.39    
119 [15] Flowery Branch 7 - AAAA 0-0 51.37    
120 [18] Ola 4 - AAAAA 0-0 51.00    
121 [27] Gainesville 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 50.89    
122 [35] Pebblebrook 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 50.74    
123 [28] Evans 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 50.67    
124 [19] Clarke Central 8 - AAAAA 0-0 50.30    
125 [20] Whitewater 3 - AAAAA 0-0 50.22    
126 [36] North Forsyth 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 49.92    
127 [16] Spalding 2 - AAAA 0-0 49.71    
128 [4] Wesleyan 5 - A 0-0 49.49    
129 [4] Emanuel County Institute 3 - A 0-0 49.41    
130 [5] Athens Academy 8 - A 0-0 49.36    
131 [21] Locust Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-0 49.29    
132 [11] Vidalia 2 - AA 0-0 49.24    
133 [29] Heritage (Conyers) 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 48.91    
134 [22] Paulding County 7 - AAAAA 0-0 48.84    
135 [37] Wheeler 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 48.49    
136 [17] Eastside 4 - AAAA 0-0 48.47    
137 [38] Kennesaw Mountain 3 - AAAAAAA 0-0 48.29    
138 [18] Americus-Sumter 1 - AAAA 0-0 48.23    
139 [23] Thomas County Central 1 - AAAAA 0-0 47.62    
140 [19] Stephens County 8 - AAAA 0-0 47.54    
141 [12] Westside (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-0 47.52    
142 [24] Arabia Mountain 5 - AAAAA 0-0 47.17    
143 [20] Chapel Hill 5 - AAAA 0-0 47.15    
144 [13] Jenkins 3 - AAA 0-0 47.07    
145 [5] Manchester 4 - A 0-0 47.03    
146 [6] Calvary Day 3 - A 0-0 46.57    
147 [12] Rockmart 7 - AA 0-0 46.48    
148 [21] Oconee County 8 - AAAA 0-0 46.42    
149 [25] Villa Rica 7 - AAAAA 0-0 46.37    
150 [26] Hiram 7 - AAAAA 0-0 46.34    
151 [13] Pepperell 7 - AA 0-0 46.21    
152 [30] Cambridge 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 46.18    
153 [39] Shiloh 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 46.01    
154 [31] Winder-Barrow 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 45.73    
155 [27] Southwest DeKalb 5 - AAAAA 0-0 45.68    
156 [14] Toombs County 2 - AA 0-0 45.39    
157 [22] Carver (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-0 45.16    
158 [23] Upson-Lee 2 - AAAA 0-0 45.10    
159 [24] West Hall 7 - AAAA 0-0 45.01    
160 [25] Heritage (Ringgold) 6 - AAAA 0-0 44.95    
161 [14] Dawson County 7 - AAA 0-0 44.74    
162 [40] Meadowcreek 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 44.37    
163 [15] Cook 1 - AAA 0-0 44.19    
164 [26] White County 7 - AAAA 0-0 44.19    
165 [41] Cherokee 4 - AAAAAAA 0-0 43.71    
166 [32] Grovetown 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 43.49    
167 [7] Stratford Academy 7 - A 0-0 43.48    
168 [33] Drew 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 43.40    
169 [15] Elbert County 8 - AA 0-0 43.40    
170 [16] Washington County 3 - AA 0-0 43.23    
171 [27] Northside (Columbus) 1 - AAAA 0-0 42.99    
172 [28] Northwest Whitfield 6 - AAAA 0-0 42.98    
173 [28] Loganville 8 - AAAAA 0-0 42.71    
174 [34] Sprayberry 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 42.45    
175 [6] Mount Zion (Carroll) 6 - A 0-0 42.43    
176 [16] Pike County 4 - AAA 0-0 42.15    
177 [29] Jonesboro 3 - AAAAA 0-0 41.80    
178 [35] Chattahoochee 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 41.61    
179 [29] Baldwin 3 - AAAA 0-0 41.60    
180 [8] Darlington 6 - A 0-0 41.47    
181 [36] Johns Creek 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 41.43    
182 [37] Tri-Cities 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 41.05    
183 [17] Dublin 3 - AA 0-0 40.79    
184 [17] Pierce County 2 - AAA 0-0 40.70    
185 [42] Campbell 2 - AAAAAAA 0-0 40.64    
186 [30] Pickens 6 - AAAA 0-0 40.63    
187 [38] New Manchester 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 40.61    
188 [30] Harris County 1 - AAAAA 0-0 40.57    
189 [31] Banneker 6 - AAAAA 0-0 40.50    
190 [18] Bremen 5 - AA 0-0 40.45    
191 [18] Jackson 4 - AAA 0-0 40.44    
192 [32] South Effingham 2 - AAAAA 0-0 40.14    
193 [39] Bradwell Institute 2 - AAAAAA 0-0 40.02    
194 [19] Swainsboro 2 - AA 0-0 39.88    
195 [33] Maynard Jackson 6 - AAAAA 0-0 39.86    
196 [34] Grady 6 - AAAAA 0-0 39.72    
197 [19] Morgan County 8 - AAA 0-0 39.53    
198 [35] Veterans 1 - AAAAA 0-0 39.35    
199 [20] Monroe Area 8 - AAA 0-0 39.16    
200 [9] Aquinas 7 - A 0-0 39.11    
201 [31] Perry 2 - AAAA 0-0 39.06    
202 [7] Commerce 8 - A 0-0 38.80    
203 [40] Creekside 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 38.68    
204 [8] Charlton County 2 - A 0-0 38.68    
205 [10] Mount Pisgah Christian 6 - A 0-0 38.45    
206 [41] Pope 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 38.45    
207 [42] Lakeside (Evans) 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 38.15    
208 [43] South Cobb 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 38.11    
209 [36] McIntosh 3 - AAAAA 0-0 37.92    
210 [9] Lincoln County 7 - A 0-0 37.86    
211 [37] Fayette County 3 - AAAAA 0-0 37.84    
212 [32] Howard 2 - AAAA 0-0 37.49    
213 [33] Hardaway 1 - AAAA 0-0 37.44    
214 [20] Spencer 5 - AA 0-0 37.03    
215 [44] River Ridge 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 36.91    
216 [21] Southwest 3 - AA 0-0 36.84    
217 [22] Bacon County 2 - AA 0-0 36.72    
218 [10] Dooly County 4 - A 0-0 36.53    
219 [38] Riverwood 6 - AAAAA 0-0 36.48    
220 [23] Douglass 6 - AA 0-0 36.26    
221 [21] North Hall 7 - AAA 0-0 36.09    
222 [11] Savannah Christian 3 - A 0-0 36.00    
223 [34] Westover 1 - AAAA 0-0 35.99    
224 [22] Southeast Bulloch 3 - AAA 0-0 35.97    
225 [39] Union Grove 4 - AAAAA 0-0 35.89    
226 [40] Cedar Shoals 8 - AAAAA 0-0 35.78    
227 [41] Statesboro 2 - AAAAA 0-0 35.57    
228 [23] Adairsville 6 - AAA 0-0 35.47    
229 [11] Marion County 4 - A 0-0 35.26    
230 [35] Central (Carrollton) 5 - AAAA 0-0 35.08    
231 [45] South Paulding 5 - AAAAAA 0-0 34.96    
232 [24] Monroe 1 - AAA 0-0 34.93    
233 [46] M.L. King 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 34.81    
234 [12] Turner County 2 - A 0-0 34.52    
235 [12] Tattnall Square 7 - A 0-0 34.37    
236 [43] Rockdale County 8 - AAAAAAA 0-0 34.29    
237 [47] Northview 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 34.28    
238 [36] Salem 4 - AAAA 0-0 34.24    
239 [48] Habersham Central 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 34.01    
240 [44] Forsyth Central 5 - AAAAAAA 0-0 33.81    
241 [42] Cass 7 - AAAAA 0-0 33.69    
242 [25] East Hall 7 - AAA 0-0 33.53    
243 [13] Fellowship Christian 6 - A 0-0 33.51    
244 [26] Hart County 8 - AAA 0-0 33.41    
245 [13] Washington-Wilkes 7 - A 0-0 33.38    
246 [37] LaGrange 5 - AAAA 0-0 33.26    
247 [38] Madison County 8 - AAAA 0-0 33.24    
248 [27] Appling County 2 - AAA 0-0 33.22    
249 [43] New Hampstead 2 - AAAAA 0-0 33.18    
250 [49] Greenbrier 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 33.11    
251 [24] Bleckley County 3 - AA 0-0 33.03    
252 [14] Trion 6 - A 0-0 32.91    
253 [25] B.E.S.T. Academy 6 - AA 0-0 32.89    
254 [44] North Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 32.86    
255 [45] Woodland (Cartersville) 7 - AAAAA 0-0 32.82    
256 [14] First Presbyterian 7 - A 0-0 32.77    
257 [15] Taylor County 4 - A 0-0 32.75    
258 [28] Sonoraville 6 - AAA 0-0 32.51    
259 [46] Lithonia 5 - AAAAA 0-0 32.42    
260 [47] Columbia 5 - AAAAA 0-0 32.13    
261 [26] Jeff Davis 2 - AA 0-0 31.92    
262 [39] Columbus 1 - AAAA 0-0 31.79    
263 [48] Riverdale 3 - AAAAA 0-0 31.68    
264 [40] Chestatee 7 - AAAA 0-0 31.51    
265 [29] Ringgold 6 - AAA 0-0 31.45    
266 [16] Telfair County 2 - A 0-0 31.30    
267 [50] Mundy's Mill 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 31.04    
268 [27] Chattooga 7 - AA 0-0 30.99    
269 [30] North Murray 6 - AAA 0-0 30.95    
270 [31] Tattnall County 2 - AAA 0-0 30.47    
271 [17] Mitchell County 1 - A 0-0 30.22    
272 [28] Berrien 1 - AA 0-0 29.95    
273 [15] Savannah Country Day 3 - A 0-0 29.84    
274 [29] Union County 8 - AA 0-0 29.61    
275 [41] North Oconee 8 - AAAA 0-0 29.50    
276 [45] Duluth 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 29.45    
277 [30] Lamar County 5 - AA 0-0 29.25    
278 [49] Miller Grove 5 - AAAAA 0-0 29.19    
279 [32] Central (Macon) 4 - AAA 0-0 28.89    
280 [50] Decatur 6 - AAAAA 0-0 28.73    
281 [51] Morrow 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 28.66    
282 [18] McIntosh County Academy 3 - A 0-0 28.34    
283 [31] Coosa 7 - AA 0-0 28.24    
284 [52] Alcovy 3 - AAAAAA 0-0 28.21    
285 [42] Southeast Whitfield 6 - AAAA 0-0 27.89    
286 [43] Richmond Academy 3 - AAAA 0-0 27.86    
287 [46] Lakeside (Atlanta) 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 27.76    
288 [32] Northeast 3 - AA 0-0 27.63    
289 [33] Towers 5 - AAA 0-0 27.54    
290 [34] Savannah 3 - AAA 0-0 27.52    
291 [19] Pelham 1 - A 0-0 27.27    
292 [16] George Walton Academy 8 - A 0-0 27.21    
293 [44] Hampton 4 - AAAA 0-0 27.14    
294 [35] Jackson County 8 - AAA 0-0 27.13    
295 [45] North Clayton 4 - AAAA 0-0 26.99    
296 [51] Walnut Grove 8 - AAAAA 0-0 26.95    
297 [36] Worth County 1 - AAA 0-0 26.77    
298 [53] North Atlanta 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 26.72    
299 [37] Redan 5 - AAA 0-0 25.95    
300 [54] Mount Zion (Jonesboro) 4 - AAAAAA 0-0 25.95    
301 [33] Laney 4 - AA 0-0 25.86    
302 [34] Metter 2 - AA 0-0 25.70    
303 [35] Washington 6 - AA 0-0 25.69    
304 [46] Luella 4 - AAAA 0-0 25.35    
305 [17] Mount Vernon Presbyterian 5 - A 0-0 25.29    
306 [18] Our Lady of Mercy 5 - A 0-0 25.29    
307 [55] Dunwoody 7 - AAAAAA 0-0 25.12    
308 [36] Early County 1 - AA 0-0 24.91    
309 [20] Schley County 4 - A 0-0 24.68    
310 [19] Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg) 5 - A 0-0 24.63    
311 [37] South Atlanta 6 - AA 0-0 24.63    
312 [38] Brantley County 2 - AAA 0-0 24.11    
313 [20] Holy Innocents 5 - A 0-0 23.41    
314 [21] Whitefield Academy 6 - A 0-0 23.00    
315 [47] Dougherty 1 - AAAA 0-0 22.95    
316 [48] Shaw 1 - AAAA 0-0 22.92    
317 [38] Therrell 6 - AA 0-0 22.84    
318 [22] Athens Christian 8 - A 0-0 22.82    
319 [23] Walker 6 - A 0-0 22.77    
320 [39] Franklin County 8 - AAA 0-0 22.47    
321 [24] Brookstone 4 - A 0-0 22.01    
322 [39] Temple 5 - AA 0-0 21.85    
323 [21] Jenkins County 3 - A 0-0 21.63    
324 [25] Hebron Christian Academy 8 - A 0-0 21.29    
325 [47] Discovery 6 - AAAAAAA 0-0 21.07    
326 [40] Jordan 5 - AA 0-0 20.43    
327 [41] Harlem 4 - AA 0-0 20.28    
328 [22] Bowdon 6 - A 0-0 20.24    
329 [42] KIPP Atlanta Collegiate 6 - AA 0-0 20.17    
330 [43] Model 7 - AA 0-0 20.00    
331 [49] Henry County 4 - AAAA 0-0 19.98    
332 [52] Lithia Springs 6 - AAAAA 0-0 19.51    
333 [56] Apalachee 8 - AAAAAA 0-0 19.41    
334 [44] Banks County 8 - AA 0-0 19.38    
335 [23] Montgomery County 3 - A 0-0 18.13    
336 [40] Beach 3 - AAA 0-0 18.05    
337 [24] Johnson County 3 - A 0-0 18.03    
338 [41] Lumpkin County 7 - AAA 0-0 18.00    
339 [26] Mount de Sales 7 - A 0-0 17.71    
340 [25] Miller County 1 - A 0-0 17.43    
341 [42] Windsor Forest 3 - AAA 0-0 17.31    
342 [45] Bryan County 2 - AA 0-0 17.04    
343 [26] Atkinson County 2 - A 0-0 16.25    
344 [27] Landmark Christian 5 - A 0-0 15.82    
345 [46] Glenn Hills 4 - AA 0-0 15.60    
346 [28] Strong Rock Christian 5 - A 0-0 15.60    
347 [27] Wilkinson County 7 - A 0-0 15.51    
348 [50] Cross Creek 3 - AAAA 0-0 15.32    
349 [43] Kendrick 4 - AAA 0-0 14.81    
350 [47] Dade County 7 - AA 0-0 14.62    
351 [28] Greene County 7 - A 0-0 14.29    
352 [48] Hephzibah 4 - AA 0-0 13.88    
353 [44] Rutland 4 - AAA 0-0 13.84    
354 [29] Claxton 3 - A 0-0 13.57    
355 [30] Seminole County 1 - A 0-0 13.52    
356 [49] Butler 4 - AA 0-0 13.40    
357 [45] Murray County 6 - AAA 0-0 13.39    
358 [50] McNair 6 - AA 0-0 13.22    
359 [31] Chattahoochee County 1 - A 0-0 13.22    
360 [32] Wilcox County 2 - A 0-0 12.47    
361 [33] Gordon Lee 6 - A 0-0 12.09    
362 [57] Forest Park 4 - AAAAAA† 0-0 11.61    
363 [51] Druid Hills 4 - AAAA 0-0 10.74    
364 [34] Hawkinsville 4 - A 0-0 10.71    
365 [46] Fannin County 7 - AAA 0-0 10.62    
366 [47] Long County 2 - AAA 0-0 10.55    
367 [35] Hancock Central 7 - A 0-0 10.31    
368 [29] St. Francis 6 - A 0-0 10.18    
369 [36] Towns County 8 - A 0-0 10.00    
370 [53] Chamblee 5 - AAAAA 0-0 9.82    
371 [48] Haralson County 6 - AAA 0-0 8.87    
372 [49] Lakeview-Ft. Oglethorpe 6 - AAA 0-0 8.41    
373 [50] Islands 3 - AAA 0-0 8.40    
374 [51] East Laurens 3 - AA 0-0 8.33    
375 [52] Monticello 8 - AA 0-0 8.10    
376 [52] Denmark 7 - AAAA 0-0 8.06    
377 [53] Putnam County 8 - AA 0-0 8.01    
378 [53] LaFayette 6 - AAAA 0-0 7.37    
379 [30] North Cobb Christian 6 - A 0-0 7.22    
380 [37] Wheeler County 3 - A 0-0 6.65    
381 [31] Christian Heritage 6 - A 0-0 5.71    
382 [38] Portal 3 - A 0-0 5.65    
383 [32] Riverside Military Academy 8 - A 0-0 5.51    
384 [39] Treutlen 3 - A 0-0 5.44    
385 [33] Lakeview Academy 8 - A 0-0 4.65    
386 [40] Terrell County 1 - A 0-0 4.64    
387 [58] Osborne 6 - AAAAAA 0-0 3.95    
388 [41] Lanier County 2 - A 0-0 3.27    
389 [54] Josey 4 - AA 0-0 2.99    
390 [55] Social Circle 8 - AA 0-0 2.12    
391 [34] King's Ridge Christian 6 - A 0-0 2.01    
392 [56] Westside (Augusta) 4 - AA 0-0 1.83    
393 [57] Armuchee 7 - AA 0-0 0.78    
394 [35] Pinecrest Academy 6 - A 0-0 0.47    
395 [51] East Jackson 8 - AAA 0-0 0.39    
396 [52] Stone Mountain 5 - AAA 0-0 0.11    
397 [42] Warren County 7 - A 0-0 -0.53    
398 [43] Randolph-Clay 1 - A 0-0 -1.75    
399 [44] Greenville 4 - A 0-0 -2.99    
400 [1] Georgia Military College 7 - A† 0-0 -3.07    
401 [48] Berkmar 7 - AAAAAAA 0-0 -4.16    
402 [53] Cherokee Bluff 7 - AAA 0-0 -5.39    
403 [54] Johnson (Gainesville) 8 - AAAAA 0-0 -5.56    
404 [36] Providence Christian 8 - A 0-0 -5.82    
405 [58] Gordon Central 7 - AA 0-0 -5.85    
406 [45] Crawford County 4 - A 0-0 -6.77    
407 [46] Calhoun County 1 - A 0-0 -7.04    
408 [47] Twiggs County 7 - A 0-0 -7.88    
409 [54] Gilmer 6 - AAAA 0-0 -8.08    
410 [54] Groves 3 - AAA 0-0 -8.29    
411 [48] Central (Talbotton) 4 - A 0-0 -8.78    
412 [55] Johnson (Savannah) 3 - AAA 0-0 -12.41    
413 [59] Oglethorpe County 8 - AA 0-0 -14.06    
414 [49] Baconton Charter 1 - A 0-0 -15.46    
415 [50] ACE Charter 7 - A† 0-0 -16.33    
416 [56] Coahulla Creek 6 - AAA 0-0 -16.80    
417 [55] Clarkston 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -18.90    
418 [51] Stewart County 1 - A 0-0 -25.91    
419 [2] Glascock County 7 - A† 0-0 -29.93    
420 [37] Pacelli 4 - A 0-0 -30.68    
421 [3] Pataula Charter 1 - A† 0-0 -46.67    
422 [56] Cross Keys 5 - AAAAA† 0-0 -53.47    
† - Plays a non-region schedule

Regions

Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the Competitive Rating is the rating required for a new team to that region to have a chance of going undefeated in a round robin schedule among region teams equal to the chance of being selected region champion if picked at random. For example, there are four teams in 1-AAAAAAA, so the chance of a new team being region champion if picked at random is 1 / (4 + 1) = 20%. Therefore the Competitive Rating is the rating required to go undefeated in a round robin tournament among region teams 20% of the time. This rating favors regions with larger numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.

Rank Region Comp Rating Avg Rating
1 1 - AAAAAAA 90.90 80.74
2 8 - AAAAAAA 86.74 64.96
3 1 - AAAAAA 82.52 73.19
4 3 - AAAAAAA 82.23 69.03
5 6 - AAAAAAA 82.21 60.68
6 4 - AAAAAAA 78.18 66.24
7 7 - AAAAA 77.81 51.59
8 7 - AAAAAAA 77.72 56.10
9 5 - AAAA 74.74 52.69
10 4 - AAAAA 72.40 55.82
11 5 - AAAAAAA 72.18 58.21
12 8 - AAAAA 71.84 39.02
13 5 - AAAAAA 70.43 52.15
14 7 - AAAA 70.33 47.54
15 2 - AAAAAA 70.19 58.23
16 6 - AAAAAA 69.53 50.52
17 4 - AAAAAA 66.64 39.35
18 2 - AAAAAAA 65.04 52.98
19 5 - AAA 64.88 44.67
20 1 - AAAAA 64.34 50.85
21 3 - AAAA 63.17 43.20
22 1 - AA 62.51 48.23
23 3 - AAA 61.84 21.38
24 2 - AAAA 60.64 47.67
25 3 - AAAAA 60.53 45.41
26 2 - AAAAA 60.44 45.62
27 5 - A 60.09 28.07
28 8 - AAAAAA 59.75 45.43
29 7 - AAA 58.84 29.17
30 4 - AAA 58.60 36.18
31 7 - AAAAAA 58.23 40.87
32 6 - AA 56.58 28.24
33 8 - AAAA 56.24 43.36
34 6 - AAA 55.30 23.44
35 5 - AA 55.02 36.99
36 4 - AAAA 54.21 30.53
37 1 - AAAA 54.11 38.10
38 8 - AA 54.09 17.68
39 8 - AAA 53.11 32.39
40 6 - AAAAA 52.57 36.72
41 3 - AAAAAA 52.26 40.49
42 6 - AAAA 52.10 33.60
43 2 - A 51.20 30.65
44 1 - AAA 50.85 40.09
45 3 - AA 50.28 35.60
46 2 - AA 49.29 35.40
47 4 - AA 48.84 19.76
48 6 - A 48.19 22.57
  6-Div B - A 43.94 22.41
  6-Div A - A 41.05 22.76
49 4 - A 47.45 20.01
  4-Div B - A 44.32 26.15
  4-Div A - A 38.56 10.60
50 8 - A 47.39 21.75
  8-Div A - A 48.37 30.77
  8-Div B - A 30.57 14.85
51 2 - AAA 46.86 31.96
52 3 - A 45.91 22.49
  3-Div A - A 42.06 27.04
  3-Div B - A 37.89 18.15
53 5 - AAAAA 45.29 33.39
54 7 - AA 44.15 23.16
55 7 - A 43.75 21.29
  7-Div A - A 38.96 24.07
  7-Div B - A 37.48 18.62
56 1 - A 27.40 6.40

Least Likely Results

These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.

Highest Rated Matchups

These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.

Game Rating Date Team Opponent Score Diff Pct
93.04 09/21 Grayson Colquitt County - 3.16 57.8%
88.87 10/26 Colquitt County Lowndes - 6.27 65.2%
88.01 08/18 Colquitt County McEachern - 6.56 65.8%
85.82 10/12 Grayson Archer - 11.69 76.3%
85.46 09/21 Buford Archer - 2.31 55.7%
84.86 10/05 North Gwinnett Mill Creek - 0.51 51.3%
84.52 09/07 Mill Creek Archer - 0.17 50.4%
81.91 10/19 Colquitt County Tift County - 12.43 77.6%
80.63 10/12 Lowndes Tift County - 9.95 73.0%
80.61 08/17 Buford Tucker - 9.35 71.8%
80.56 09/14 North Gwinnett Walton - 5.24 62.8%
80.45 08/18 North Gwinnett Brookwood - 6.19 65.0%
80.33 08/18 Mill Creek Walton - 7.25 67.4%
79.65 08/25 Grayson Tucker - 17.46 85.1%
79.13 08/31 Mill Creek Norcross - 7.91 68.8%

About the Author

Loren Maxwell

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