The Falcons just went 4-12 a season after finishing 13-3, which isn’t to say that they’ve fallen apart. They’ve fallen, yes. But they can rise, and more quickly than you would think.
As a point of reference, we need only reference local history. The 2007 Falcons went 4-12 and, by season’s end, had lost their general manager (kicked upstairs), their coach (fled to Fayetteville, Ark.) and their quarterback (incarcerated). Entering 2008, the Falcons lacked everything. They would finish 11-5 and make the playoffs.
Viewed alongside the battered Birds of 2007, the Falcons of today seem positively blessed. They have a GM, a coach and a quarterback, and from 2008 through 2012 the three — Thomas Dimitroff, Mike Smith and Matt Ryan — led this franchise to the best record of any NFC team.
In January 2008, the Falcons’ fortunes were so low that their mascot should have been Barney Rubble. In January 2014, the Falcons aren’t so much rebooting as recalibrating. They were bad this season, but they were also unlucky. Over the previous five seasons, they were 29-12 in one-score games; this season they were 4-7. Over those five seasons, they also enjoyed remarkable health; this season a slew of key guys got hurt. A team overdue for a run of ill fortune finally was handed a heaping helping.
The contention in advanced analytical circles was that the 2012 Falcons (and also the 2010 Falcons) weren’t as good as 13-3. The guess here — not that I’m either advanced or analytical — is that they weren’t the 2013 team wasn’t quite as bad as 4-12. If the Falcons do good work over the offseason, there’s no reason they can’t be above .500 when the year is done.
The places to start are so obvious that the Falcons have started already: They’ve changed coaches for the offensive and defensive lines. But that can’t be the end of it, and it won’t. The Falcons figure to invest heavily in linemen in free agency and the draft. Look for their first two draft picks and their two biggest free-agent signings to be devoted to men who weigh upward of 255 pounds. It doesn’t matter which line gets addressed via which mechanism; it matters only that both do.
Nobody likes going 4-12 — until you realize that your GM now gets to make a high draft pick without having to offload five picks in the process. As fate would have it, this seems an ideal time to be drafting No. 6 overall. Most of the teams picking ahead of the Falcons need quarterbacks, which means one of the two prized left tackles (Jake Matthews of Texas A&M or Greg Robinson of Auburn) should be available.
It’s often said that Dimitroff has ignored his offensive line, but that’s not true: Of the six men who entered training camp with a chance to start, five were Dimitroff draftees. Were they as good as he hoped? Nope. But Dimitroff has never been able to target a top-of-the-draft lineman before. Only twice in five drafts has he exercised a top-15 pick: Matt Ryan was No. 3 in 2008 and Julio Jones No. 6 after the famous trade of 2011.
Only Sam Baker, at No. 21 in 2008, was a first-rounder among current O-linemen, and Dimitroff has conceded that Baker’s drafting was more a matter of need. (A left tackle was required to give Ryan a fighting chance.) A sagacious draft pick could have a galvanizing effect on what Pro Football Focus rated the NFL’s next-to-worst offensive line in 2013. If the choice is Robinson, he could start at left tackle while Baker moves to the right side. That couldn’t be as bad as having Lamar Holmes over there, could it?
In his first four months on the job, Dimitroff drafted three immediate starters — Ryan, Baker and middle linebacker Curtis Lofton — plus three eventual regulars in Thomas DeCoud, Kroy Biermann and Harry Douglas. He also signed Michael Turner, who finished second in the NFL in rushing, and Erik Coleman, who started at free safety. On cue, the Falcons improved by seven games.
This being the hard-capped NFL, a lot can be accomplished in not a lot of time. We were handed two more examples this season. The Kansas City Chiefs rose from 2-14 to 11-5, and the Carolina Panthers went from 7-9 to NFC South champs.
The 2014 schedule is imposing — the Falcons play every team from the AFC North and the NFC North, plus the Cardinals and the Giants — but a roster that includes Ryan, Jones, Roddy White, Steven Jackson and what should be an infusion of talent cannot be dismissed. If Dimitroff aces the offseason, his team could be back in the playoffs come January 2015.
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