In NFL, defense starts comebacks, and offense stops them

Defense starts comebacks, offense stops them.

Consider January’s NFC title game, Green Bay at Seattle. The Packers attained a 22-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Green Bay possession results from then on: punt, punt, field goal. From the juncture of the 22-7 lead, Green Bay gained just three first downs. When football teams reach a large lead, offenses tend to go into their shells, creating opportunities for defense-led comebacks.

Then two weeks later at the Super Bowl, Seattle led New England, 24-14, at the start of the fourth quarter. Seahawks possession results from then till the double-whistle: three-and-out, three-and-out, interception. Defense sparked the New England rebound.

In the greatest comeback ever, the old Houston Oilers led the Buffalo Bills, 35-3, in the third quarter of a 1993 playoff game. The Bills put up a passel of touchdowns, but as important was that for the remainder of the contest, Houston scored just 3 points. Defense led the comeback.

On the flip side, offense stops comebacks. At the start of the fourth quarter in the New England at Dallas game Sunday, the hosts had just pulled to 20-6. Fourth-quarter crowd energy favors the home team. The Patriots completed an 80-yard touchdown drive, and any comeback hopes were dashed.

If way behind, focus on stopping the other side from advancing the ball. If way ahead, score again to ice the contest. Bill Belichick always keeps his foot on the gas for the latter reason.

In other football news, the coming weekend offers Belichick’s Patriots at Indianapolis. There will be endless rehashing of the PSIcheated scandal. What matters on the field is that of late, New England has used the Colts as a scout team.

The Patriots have won six straight versus Indianapolis. The last four meetings were blowouts, the Patriots outscoring the Colts 189-73. Andrew Luck is 0-4 versus New England, 37-16 versus all other teams. His shoulder hurting, Luck may or may not dress.

The primary reason the Patriots are dominating the Colts is that New England is the better team. A second reason is that the Colts never seem prepared for New England’s Indianapolis-specific game plan — lots of rushes against the weak Colts’ front seven and lots of short passes to avoid the Indianapolis safeties.

In two meetings with Indianapolis last season, discounting kneel-downs, New England rushed a total of 80 times, a high number for the New England offense, and threw short 53 times and long 12 times. Forty percent of Patriots’ passes were short to Tom Brady’s right. If in Sunday’s date at Indianapolis, New England rushes more than usual and throws short right repeatedly, expect the Colts to act surprised.

On “Monday Night Football,” an awful lot, in terms of action and of football logic, was packed into the final five seconds.

The host Chargers leading by 3, Pittsburgh completed a pass to the San Diego 1, five seconds showing. First, San Diego safety Jahleel Addae delivered a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit on Steelers tight end Heath Miller, and officials flagged him for unnecessary roughness. Though half-the-distance to the goal line was a negligible change in the spot, the fact that officials did not take the “let the boys play” attitude in this high-profile situation is a good sign for football’s long-term prospects.

Second, rather than kick a field goal and proceed to overtime, the Steelers went for the win — and using a run. In the pass-wacky contemporary NFL, coaches throw too many passes from the 1-yard line — the Seahawks at the Super Bowl, for instance. In the last five seasons, NFL teams scored touchdowns on 54 percent of rushes from the 1, versus on 50 percent of passes. A small difference to be sure — but at the 1, running the ball is playing the percentages.

Third, Pittsburgh came out with Michael Vick in the huddle — then Vick flanked wide and Le’Veon Bell, a tailback, lined up behind center. Seeing this funky set, San Diego called a timeout. Surely, the Chargers thought, Pittsburgh will now change to a different look. After the timeout, the Steelers used reverse psychology and ran exactly the same play — “you must have suspected I would have known” — Bell rushing for the winning touchdown.

Sweet play of the week

“Badger! Badger!” Trailing by 24-14, the Bengals reached the Seahawks’ 5 with 3 minutes 41 seconds remaining in regulation. Before starting the cadence, quarterback Andy Dalton shouted “badger!” ardently, while pointing to the far left of the Cincinnati formation, where the Bengals had a trips set of three receivers. In pass-wacky modern football, the defense was expecting a throw: Seattle lined up with four rushers, and everyone else backed off. There was no middle linebacker directly across from the quarterback — which meant that if Dalton simply ran straight ahead, the Bengals would have numbers at the point of attack.

But Dalton didn’t want the visitors to realize what he was thinking. “Badger! Badger!” was a fake audible. Dalton appeared to be telling the three receivers on the left what he wanted them to do. This drew the defense’s attention toward the outside left. Then Dalton went straight up the middle to score the touchdown that changed the complexion of the contest.

Sour play of the week

Washington leading, 16-12, with 30 seconds remaining in regulation, Atlanta reached first-and-goal on the 6. Defensive ends want sacks — that’s the stat they are rewarded for at contract time. Offensive coordinators exploit defensive ends who gamble for sacks. At the snap, Washington defensive end Ryan Kerrigan sprinted straight up the field to try to sack Matt Ryan, totally giving up his contain. There was no one to stop a draw toward Kerrigan’s gap, which is what Atlanta called. Touchdown, and the Falcons prevail in overtime.

Sweet ’n’ sour matched set of plays

Game scoreless, Cincinnati had the ball on the Seattle 14. Seahawks strong safety Kam Chancellor lined up over Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert, who was in-line left. Usually the strong safety covers the tight end. When Eifert ran straight up the field to the end zone, Chancellor let him go by, neither jamming him nor attempting to cover him; Chancellor double-teamed a wide receiver going short. Uncovered touchdown for Eifert.

Now it’s the fourth quarter, Seattle with a seemingly secure 24-7 lead. Cincinnati reached the Seattle 10. Same play call — Eifert in-line left, straight up the field — as when the Bengals were in this field position before. Same defense, Chancellor over Eifert. Same result as before: Chancellor ignored the Cincinnati tight end in order to double-team a wide receiver pulling up short. Same result, touchdown.

This pair of plays was double-sweet for Cincinnati, double-sour for Seattle. Note the Seahawks, whose trademark is monster defense, have been unable to hold fourth-quarter leads — stretching back to the Super Bowl — in three of their past six outings.

Where is parity when you need it?

With six teams entering the weekend undefeated, victories were so concentrated there was no game in Week 5 that paired two teams with winning records.

Buck-buck-brawkkkkkk

Leading, 3-0, host Tennessee faced fourth-and-2 on the Buffalo 39. The Titans entered the contest on a 2-16 stretch. They cannot be punting on fourth-and-2 in opposition territory! Now they are on a 2-17 stretch.

Stats of the week

News from the swamps of Jersey

The Giants’ offensive line has allowed just four sacks in five games, the Jets’ offensive line just two sacks in four contests. These are the league’s best pass-blocking performances so far.

BOLOs of the week

All units, all units, be on the look out for the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive line. Russell Wilson has been sacked 22 times, on a pace for 70 sacks. (Last season’s worst was 71 sacks allowed by Jacksonville.) Two weeks ago versus Detroit, offensive line malfunctions caused Seattle to face fourth-and-goal from the 33. Sunday, Wilson was sacked on third down before the punt that positioned Cincinnati to force overtime, then sacked again on third down before the punt that positioned Cincinnati to win.

All units, all units, be advised the Detroit Lions are not armed and not dangerous. Losers of seven straight, the Lions were booed loudly at home versus Arizona. Down by 35-7 in the fourth quarter — that’s four scores — Lions coach Jim Caldwell ordered a field-goal attempt. The kick was good, and left Detroit down by four scores. Just to prove this fraidy-cat decision was no fluke, Caldwell had his charges kick deep rather than onside.

What are they teaching at Princeton?

Dallas trailing New England 20-3 at the end of the third quarter, the Cowboys faced fourth-and-2 on the Patriots’ 5. Options available to the former Tiger Jason Garrett: go for it, or lose. Garrett chose the latter, the Boys not reaching the red zone again until garbage time. Thrice in the contested portion of the contest, Dallas faced fourth-and-short. Thrice Garrett did the “safe” thing by sending in a kicker. “Safe” tactics added up to a 30-6 home blowout defeat.

Just before Garrett made the “safe” choice on fourth-and-short from the Patriots’ 33, the 4th Down Bot noted that kicking would reduce Dallas’ chance of victory while going for it would increase the victory chance. At Princeton, Garrett must have cut class the day the 4th Down Bot taught a seminar.

Adventures in officiating

Twice in the fourth quarter at Atlanta, the Redskins ran hitch screens to wide receiver Jamison Crowder, once for a long gainer, once for a loss. On both plays, Washington offensive linemen ran downfield before the pass, no flag. Hitch screens — called “bubble” or “smoke” screens depending on the offense — have become so frequent that zebras seem to have lost focus on watching for linemen downfield.

Stop me before I blitz again!

Cleveland facing third-and-5 on the Baltimore 18, the Ravens ran a “house” blitz — seven men rushing the passer. Baltimore didn’t need a sack, since Cleveland would have been in field-goal position anyway; what Baltimore needed was an incompletion. Highlight reels are loving the touchdown pass that tight end Gary Barnidge caught with his legs against this ill-advised all-out blitz. With Baltimore 1-4, the Sports Illustrated prediction that the Ravens would win the Super Bowl is looking, as Holden Caulfield would say, not too gorgeous.

Tennessee leading Buffalo, 13-7, in the fourth quarter, the Titans had the Bills facing third-and-23. Tennessee didn’t need a sack, just an incompletion. It’s a blitz! Tyrod Taylor runs for the first down and the hosts are not looking too gorgeous.