Maxwell Week 10 projections

ajc.com

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Nov 05

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
65.34AAACedar Grove96.7%31 - 031Westminster (Atlanta)AAA
54.14AAAAHapeville Charter80.7%26 - 1313Arabia MountainAAAA
53.24AAAABainbridge93.7%31 - 625WestoverAAAA
52.81AAHaralson County85.7%31 - 1417Heard CountyAA
45.00AAAAAEastside90.1%29 - 722Jackson CountyAAAAA
43.88AAAAAAWinder-Barrow81.4%28 - 1414SalemAAA
41.86A PublicGordon Lee70.6%26 - 188B.E.S.T. AcademyA Public
33.70AAAAAJonesboro94.4%23 - 023DrewAAAAA
33.22AAAAJenkins92.2%29 - 623Johnson (Savannah)AAA
24.71AAAAJefferson99.9%49 - 049ChestateeAAAA
12.78AAAAAWoodward Academy99.7%45 - 045Forest ParkAAAAA
7.44AAAALaGrange98.9%38 - 038SpencerAAAA
-4.39AAAAShaw99.0%41 - 041KendrickAAAA

Nov 06

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
103.54AAAAAAALowndes57.6%28 - 253Colquitt CountyAAAAAAA
85.07AAAAAAValdosta73.9%21 - 129Houston CountyAAAAAA
82.33AAAAAAANorth Cobb62.7%22 - 202HillgroveAAAAAAA
82.19AAAAAAAGrayson92.0%35 - 1421BrookwoodAAAAAAA
78.40AAAAACoffee75.5%21 - 138VeteransAAAAA
74.66AAAAAAAMill Creek66.3%18 - 126NewtonAAAAAAA
74.65AAAAAAACherokee75.5%26 - 1412AlpharettaAAAAAAA
74.45AAAAAWarner Robins92.8%31 - 724Wayne CountyAAAAA
73.93AAFitzgerald75.8%24 - 1410ThomasvilleAA
73.79AAAAAAAParkview77.5%27 - 1413South GwinnettAAAAAAA
73.66AAAAAALee County95.0%28 - 028Northside (Warner Robins)AAAAAA
73.62AAAAAAATift County56.6%20 - 173Camden CountyAAAAAAA
72.39AAAAAAAGainesville54.1%22 - 211West ForsythAAAAAAA
71.94AAAAAARome57.4%20 - 155AlexanderAAAAAA
70.86AAAAAAAllatoona76.2%26 - 1412KellAAAAAA
67.52AAAAAAAMarietta53.3%21 - 210HarrisonAAAAAAA
67.42AAAAAAADenmark62.0%21 - 192South ForsythAAAAAAA
67.23AAAAAARichmond Hill90.1%34 - 1420Glynn AcademyAAAAAA
66.19AAAAMarist90.8%23 - 023StephensonAAAA
65.64AAACarver (Atlanta)57.5%21 - 192Sandy CreekAAA
65.37AAAAAACarrollton87.3%34 - 1717East PauldingAAAAAA
64.24AAAAAAACollins Hill94.6%35 - 728Mountain ViewAAAAAAA
62.74AAAAAADouglas County81.1%24 - 1212DaltonAAAAAA
62.57AAAAAAAWalton86.0%31 - 1417North PauldingAAAAAAA
62.50AAAOconee County94.0%30 - 030Monroe AreaAAA
62.19AAAAADutchtown64.7%20 - 146Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAAA
61.87AAAAACalhoun85.8%27 - 1017CassAAAAA
60.70A PublicBrooks County81.1%28 - 1414Clinch CountyA Public
60.33AAAAThomas County Central50.0%21 - 210CairoAAAA
60.33AAAACairo50.0%21 - 210Thomas County CentralAAAA
59.69AAAAAAAForsyth Central73.7%27 - 1710LambertAAAAAAA
59.62AAAAAADacula90.0%33 - 1320ShilohAAAAAA
59.48AAAAAACambridge55.1%22 - 211RiverwoodAAAAAA
59.39AAAAAAANewnan95.6%38 - 1028PebblebrookAAAAAAA
59.26AAAAAOla83.1%31 - 1813StockbridgeAAAAA
58.94AAAHart County60.2%25 - 214Stephens CountyAAA
58.59AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett96.9%35 - 035Peachtree RidgeAAAAAAA
58.38AABleckley County66.3%24 - 204Washington CountyAA
58.07AANortheast53.1%22 - 211Dodge CountyAA
57.79AAAAAGriffin54.1%23 - 212NorthgateAAAAA
57.61AAAAAAAWoodstock61.6%21 - 192EtowahAAAAAAA
57.60AAAAAARiver Ridge89.5%32 - 1418SequoyahAAAAAA
57.38AACook65.6%23 - 185Early CountyAA
57.21AAAAAClarke Central84.2%27 - 1215LoganvilleAAAAA
57.19AAAAAASouth Paulding63.5%21 - 174Paulding CountyAAAAAA
57.06AAAANorth Oconee50.6%21 - 210Cedar ShoalsAAAA
55.89AAAAAASprayberry87.1%31 - 1417PopeAAAAAA
55.53A PrivateSavannah Christian64.1%27 - 216AquinasA Private
55.45AASwainsboro52.7%20 - 200Jeff DavisAA
55.31AAPutnam County60.1%20 - 155Jefferson CountyAA
55.06AATemple50.2%21 - 210BremenAA
54.85AAAANew Hampstead51.3%21 - 210IslandsAAAA
54.23AAVidalia65.8%24 - 195Toombs CountyAA
54.05AAAPeach County95.0%34 - 727JacksonAAA
53.94AAARockmart86.3%33 - 1518AdairsvilleAAA
53.63AAAAAAWestlake94.5%34 - 628North AtlantaAAAAAA
53.09A PublicDublin82.8%28 - 1414Johnson CountyA Public
52.85AAADawson County71.4%28 - 208Cherokee BluffAAA
52.55A PrivateNorth Cobb Christian76.3%28 - 1810DarlingtonA Private
52.38AAAAABlessed Trinity98.8%42 - 042HiramAAAAA
52.34AAAUpson-Lee64.3%27 - 216Mary PersonsAAA
50.22AAAAALithia Springs56.8%23 - 212Chapel HillAAAAA
49.95AAAAAACreekview94.1%30 - 030ChattahoocheeAAAAAA
49.82AAAAAStarr's Mill95.3%28 - 028WhitewaterAAAAA
49.80A PrivateHoly Innocents54.9%24 - 213Mount Vernon PresbyterianA Private
49.70AAAAAAANorcross99.3%42 - 042DuluthAAAAAAA
48.54AAAAABanneker52.7%21 - 210Tri-CitiesAAAAA
48.21AAAAAUnion Grove82.8%29 - 1514Locust GroveAAAAA
48.04AAAAAAEvans76.3%22 - 139Southeast BullochAAA
47.38AAAAMays63.8%21 - 174Miller GroveAAAA
47.21AAAAASt. Pius X93.6%34 - 727M.L. KingAAAAA
45.85A PublicChattahoochee County85.4%21 - 021Schley CountyA Public
45.83AARabun County96.3%38 - 830Elbert CountyAA
45.80A PublicWashington-Wilkes83.5%28 - 1414Lincoln CountyA Public
45.33AAPepperell65.9%21 - 156ModelAA
44.38AAAAFlowery Branch96.2%35 - 332Madison CountyAAAA
44.02A PublicLanier County65.9%22 - 175Atkinson CountyA Public
43.84A PrivateCalvary Day79.6%28 - 1612Savannah Country DayA Private
43.79AAAAAAAArcher99.3%40 - 040DiscoveryAAAAAAA
43.63AAAAAAStatesboro85.8%28 - 1315South EffinghamAAAAAA
43.43AAACrisp County98.9%35 - 035Americus-SumterAAA
43.42A PrivateFellowship Christian98.0%38 - 038Mount Pisgah ChristianA Private
43.10AAAThomson94.4%35 - 1025HarlemAAA
43.06AAAAAAAEast Coweta99.2%41 - 041CampbellAAAAAAA
42.93AALovett89.3%27 - 621ColumbiaAA
42.69A PublicMcIntosh County Academy81.2%28 - 1414Screven CountyA Public
42.12A PublicMacon County88.8%27 - 720ManchesterA Public
42.01A PublicIrwin County98.4%38 - 038Charlton CountyA Public
41.65AAABurke County90.6%34 - 1420HephzibahAAA
41.60AAAAAAJohns Creek92.2%28 - 622CentennialAAAAAA
40.27AAAAAAEffingham County50.3%19 - 190Bradwell InstituteAAAAAA
39.86A PrivateMount de Sales60.5%21 - 174Strong Rock ChristianA Private
39.86AAAAAWalnut Grove73.2%26 - 1610ApalacheeAAAAA
39.66AAAAACartersville99.4%41 - 041Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
39.51AAAAAAAlcovy74.7%27 - 1710Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
39.42AAAAAHarris County96.8%35 - 035Northside (Columbus)AAAAA
39.42AAAAACreekside95.2%34 - 628Mundy's MillAAAAA
39.31AAAAMonroe64.0%21 - 165DoughertyAAAA
39.03AAAAADecatur91.2%32 - 1220NorthviewAAAAA
38.98AAAAAJones County98.5%38 - 038Eagle's LandingAAAAA
38.33AAAAAATucker97.0%35 - 035MorrowAAAAAA
37.62A PrivateStratford Academy81.9%24 - 1212Tattnall SquareA Private
37.49GISA AAATiftarea Academy58.8%24 - 213Brookwood SchoolGISA AAA
36.97A PrivateChristian Heritage95.3%34 - 331Mount Paran ChristianA Private
36.33A PrivateTrinity Christian (Sharpsburg)93.3%30 - 327BrookstoneA Private
35.78A PublicBowdon79.5%27 - 1413Mount Zion (Carroll)A Public
35.64AAAABaldwin96.3%35 - 629SpaldingAAAA
35.50AABacon County68.8%24 - 177East LaurensAA
35.44AALamar County71.5%26 - 179MonticelloAA
35.41AAAARiverdale87.3%28 - 820HamptonAAAA
35.32AAAAFayette County74.0%21 - 138Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
35.18AAACentral (Macon)94.9%35 - 728Pike CountyAAA
34.83A PrivateAthens Academy98.6%37 - 037Athens ChristianA Private
34.59GISA AAACreekside Christian50.5%24 - 240Westfield SchoolGISA AAA
34.35AAALaFayette81.1%30 - 1812SonoravilleAAA
33.32AAANorth Murray92.2%34 - 1321Murray CountyAAA
32.55AAAGilmer56.8%17 - 143West HallAAA
32.19A PublicCommerce94.6%37 - 1324Social CircleA Public
31.46AAAAAARockdale County84.1%27 - 1215GrovetownAAAAAA
31.28A PrivateFirst Presbyterian89.2%30 - 1218Deerfield-WindsorA Private
30.96AAAAAMaynard Jackson85.0%25 - 718GradyAAAAA
30.75AAALiberty County89.0%28 - 721ChambleeAAAAA
30.58AAKIPP Atlanta Collegiate66.6%28 - 217TherrellAA
30.06AAWorth County93.5%35 - 1322BerrienAA
30.01AAAAHoward92.8%31 - 724RutlandAAAA
29.61AAAFranklin County95.9%38 - 1226East JacksonAAA
29.51AAAAALithonia87.6%31 - 1417Stone MountainAAAAA
29.34A PublicWilcox County97.2%35 - 035HawkinsvilleA Public
28.60GISA AABrentwood School83.4%30 - 1614Piedmont AcademyGISA AA
28.42AAAACarver (Columbus)98.5%42 - 735ColumbusAAAA
27.59AADade County52.5%21 - 210CoosaAA
26.24A PublicPelham96.8%34 - 034Terrell CountyA Public
25.99A PrivateGeorge Walton Academy97.9%34 - 034Banks CountyAA
25.32AAAAAASouth Cobb72.8%28 - 208OsborneAAAAAA
25.15AAAACentral (Carrollton)97.8%36 - 036McDonoughAAAA
23.57GISA AAAValwood School54.2%20 - 191Southland AcademyGISA AAA
23.40AAPace Academy97.8%34 - 034TowersAA
23.17A PublicEmanuel County Institute94.8%28 - 028Jenkins CountyA Public
23.09A PrivateWhitefield Academy96.2%35 - 035Landmark ChristianA Private
23.02AAAAAAABerkmar66.8%22 - 166DunwoodyAAAAAAA
22.72AAABrantley County54.7%21 - 201Tattnall CountyAAA
21.77A PublicWarren County86.4%27 - 720Georgia Military CollegeA Public
18.24A PrivateWesleyan99.2%42 - 042Providence ChristianA Private
16.83AAButler53.2%20 - 182JoseyAA
16.80A PrivatePacelli95.3%28 - 028Heritage SchoolA Private
16.24AAAAHardaway99.5%42 - 042JordanAAAA
15.88A PublicTrion88.1%27 - 720ArmucheeA Public
15.03AAAANorthwest Whitfield99.1%42 - 042Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
14.42GISA AAThomas Jefferson64.5%22 - 175Edmund Burke AcademyGISA AA
14.04A PrivateKing's Ridge Christian86.0%28 - 1216St. FrancisA Private
12.54A PublicTowns County57.2%21 - 192Greene CountyA Public
12.40A PublicClaxton96.5%35 - 035PortalA Public
11.77GISA AATerrell Academy89.7%29 - 920Memorial DayGISA AA
11.47AAAPierce County100.0%48 - 048Long CountyAAA
8.17A PublicHancock Central98.1%38 - 038ACE CharterA Public
7.93GISA AAAJohn Milledge Academy99.9%48 - 048Bethlehem Christian AcademyGISA AAA
7.69AAAMorgan County99.5%36 - 036Cross CreekAAA
6.98AAAAANew Manchester99.7%44 - 044North SpringsAAAAA
4.50GISA AAAFrederica Academy98.5%28 - 028St. Andrew's SchoolGISA AAA
4.31AAOglethorpe County92.8%32 - 725Glenn HillsAA
3.33A PublicMontgomery County98.5%38 - 038Baconton CharterA Public
3.19AAAAAGreenbrier99.7%45 - 045Johnson (Gainesville)AAAAA
1.72A PublicGreenville90.7%35 - 1421Central (Talbotton)A Public
-0.59A PublicMetter100.0%50 - 050Bryan CountyA Public
-0.80GISA AAAPinewood Christian99.8%47 - 047Trinity Christian (Dublin)GISA AAA
-3.54A PublicWilkinson County93.6%31 - 625Crawford CountyA Public
-7.26AAAWhite County100.0%51 - 051Lumpkin CountyAAA
-7.87A PublicGlascock County74.6%21 - 129Pataula CharterA Public
-10.84GISA AABriarwood Academy98.1%38 - 038Augusta PrepGISA AA
-17.18GISA AAABulloch Academy99.9%53 - 053Robert Toombs AcademyGISA AA

Nov 07

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
84.53AAAAAAAMilton57.9%21 - 201RoswellAAAAAAA
73.08AAAAAALovejoy79.3%21 - 714HughesAAAAAA
71.02AAAAAABuford87.0%28 - 1315LanierAAAAAA
57.86AAAAPerry65.3%21 - 165Westside (Macon)AAAA
37.16AAAARidgeland60.1%21 - 192PickensAAAA
36.34AAFannin County94.0%35 - 1025ChattoogaAA
32.61AAARinggold88.0%28 - 721Coahulla CreekAAA
31.45AAAWindsor Forest90.3%27 - 324BeachAAA
23.72A PublicDooly County87.0%27 - 720TreutlenA Public
18.98AAWashington97.2%35 - 035Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
2.25A PublicMitchell County99.5%44 - 044Randolph-ClayA Public

Nov 09

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
57.68AAAAAWoodward Academy61.5%20 - 146JonesboroAAAAA
52.19AAAAAAWinder-Barrow50.3%21 - 210Central GwinnettAAAAAA
48.74AAAAAAKennesaw Mountain53.5%21 - 201WheelerAAAAAA

Nov 10

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
67.23AACallaway60.9%21 - 183Haralson CountyAA