The Maxwell Ratings will rank the 465 teams of the Georgia High School Association (GHSA), the Georgia Independent Athletic Association (GIAA), and the Georgia Association of Private & Parochial Schools (GAPPS) throughout the 2023 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season’s games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season’s results in combination with each team’s historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team’s historical performance diminishes as the team’s season progresses.
A hypothetical score at a neutral location can be calculated between two teams by adding their offensive and defensive ratings. To account for home advantage, adjust the hypothetical scores in favor of the home team by half of the home advantage.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 709 of 732 total games including 0 tie(s) (96.86%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game scores within 9.38 points and all game margins within 12.77 points.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
The Maxwell Ratings are a regular feature of Georgia High School Football Daily, a free newsletter. To join the mailing list, click here.
Home Advantage: 1.69
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
† - Plays a non-region schedule
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating,” which is the mode of the Extreme Value Type I Distribution (i.e., the Gumbel minimum distribution) applied to the ratings. This calculation favors regions with large numbers of highly rated teams. The “Average Rating” is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
|25||5-A Division I||4||59.40||46.62|
|27||2-A Division I||5||58.49||51.46|
|39||8-A Division I||4||53.79||44.19|
|40||1-A Division I||4||52.70||47.74|
|42||GIAA District 6-AAAA-AAA||5||51.95||44.74|
|47||2-A Division II||5||46.95||40.32|
|49||7-A Division II||3||46.44||41.23|
|53||3-A Division II||5||44.81||38.72|
|54||8-A Division II||6||44.76||39.81|
|55||6-A Division I||4||44.23||43.53|
|57||6-A Division II||8||42.63||31.57|
|58||4-A Division I||4||42.25||35.70|
|59||7-A Division I||7||39.88||34.00|
|60||4-A Division II||6||39.09||34.87|
|61||GIAA District 5-AAAA-AAA||5||38.73||31.53|
|63||3-A Division I||5||37.62||26.72|
|65||GIAA Region 2-AA||3||34.35||28.66|
|66||GIAA District 2-AAAA-AAA||4||32.39||30.69|
|67||GIAA District 3-AAAA-AAA||6||31.60||27.31|
|68||1-A Division II||7||29.17||26.91|
|69||5-A Division II||6||25.22||15.02|
|70||GIAA District 4-AAAA-AAA||5||24.64||15.31|
|71||GIAA Region 4-AA||3||22.53||20.43|
|72||GIAA Region 2-A||3||21.29||16.96|
|73||GIAA Region 6-AA||2||21.10||13.81|
|74||GIAA Region 3-AA||2||17.78||12.29|
|75||GAPPS Region 1-AA||4||15.30||9.26|
|76||GIAA Region 1-A||4||6.57||-5.16|
|77||GAPPS Region 2-AA||5||5.94||-4.05|
|78||GIAA Region 1-AA||2||-19.93||-21.90|
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
|08/18||Stephens County||Habersham Central||31 - 29||31.93||97.8%||0.185|
|08/19||Cedar Grove||Dutchtown||34 - 33||22.20||93.3%||0.271|
|08/18||Monroe||Mitchell County||3 - 0||25.16||95.2%||0.279|
|09/08||Blessed Trinity||St. Pius X||16 - 14||19.06||90.5%||0.335|
|08/18||Upson-Lee||Union Grove||21 - 20||16.30||87.3%||0.352|
|09/01||Mount Pisgah Christian||Cherokee Christian||14 - 13||15.93||86.8%||0.358|
|08/25||Winder-Barrow||M.L. King||28 - 27||15.57||86.3%||0.363|
|08/19||East Coweta||Starr's Mill||28 - 21||25.48||95.3%||0.381|
|08/18||Cherokee Christian||Calvary Christian||19 - 20||11.84||80.2%||0.382|
|09/08||Central Fellowship Christian||Crawford County||31 - 29||15.63||86.4%||0.382|
|09/08||Crisp County||Sumter County||15 - 24||6.46||68.2%||0.386|
|09/08||Swainsboro||Dodge County||11 - 7||18.29||89.7%||0.391|
|08/18||Sonoraville||Pickens||21 - 38||4.52||63.1%||0.393|
|09/01||Evans||Greenbrier||22 - 21||13.47||83.1%||0.393|
|08/25||Chamblee||Towers||21 - 12||29.41||97.0%||0.398|
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
|100.26||10/13||Mill Creek||Buford|| - ||1.27||53.8%|
|95.08||08/18||Hughes||Carrollton||39 - 34||4.75||63.7%|
|95.08||10/20||Westlake||Carrollton|| - ||4.75||63.7%|
|91.77||09/22||Mill Creek||Parkview|| - ||9.83||76.2%|
|91.53||10/27||Colquitt County||Valdosta|| - ||4.35||62.6%|
|89.49||09/08||Milton||Roswell||34 - 14||13.22||82.7%|
|87.38||09/22||Colquitt County||Cedar Grove|| - ||9.20||74.8%|
|87.26||09/01||Westlake||Cedar Grove||46 - 41||14.73||85.1%|
|87.17||09/15||Mill Creek||Cedar Grove|| - ||15.89||86.8%|
|86.90||10/06||Walton||North Cobb|| - ||9.63||75.8%|
|86.83||08/18||Westlake||North Cobb||52 - 28||13.54||83.2%|
|86.73||09/01||Buford||North Cobb||45 - 28||15.12||85.7%|
|86.45||10/06||Carrollton||East Coweta|| - ||7.40||70.6%|
|85.19||09/29||Roswell||Blessed Trinity|| - ||0.61||51.8%|
|85.12||10/21||Thomas County Central||Houston County|| - ||9.73||76.0%|