The Miami Marlins might trade Giancarlo Stanton this offseason. And they should be better off for it.
Go ahead, let that sink in. It stings, I know. That's a fair reaction after Stanton hit 59 home runs in perhaps the best individual offensive season in franchise history, has earned all sorts of end-of-year honors, is a finalist for a Gold Glove, might be the NL MVP and has built a strong case as the best Marlin ever.
Alas, the first portion of the Marlins' Derek Jeter era is one of transition.
A Stanton trade is not a guarantee (he has a no-trade clause, so he'll have to approve any deal he's part of), but consider it a strong likelihood. The situation should gain some clarity in the coming days through a series of meetings, including Stanton getting together with Marlins bosses in the near future.
The logic behind a Stanton trade, however, seems to elude many, based on an unscientific sampling of tweets, sports-talk radio segments and Jimmy Kimmel. So let's take a step back and, before the offseason really heats up, consider the reasons the Marlins would pursue such a deal.
Many of these reasons tie into the larger issue of a possible larger Marlins rebuild, but for now let's focus on Stanton specifically.
Stanton's salary is about to explode. And the Marlins are readying to cut payroll. Everybody knows about the 13-year, $325 million contract Stanton signed in November 2014. Not everybody realizes he's been underpaid so far: $6.5 million in 2015, $9 million in 2016 and $14.5 million in 2017. Starting next season, Stanton is due $295 million over 10 years — numbers that on their own would qualify as the largest contract in sports history, never mind the first three years of the deal.
The Marlins are reportedly looking to keep payroll around $90 million in 2018. It's awfully hard to do that when you have one dude making $25 million (along with a few untradeable contracts).
A common retort to the money matter is that the new owners, who just bought the Marlins for $1.2 billion, should just suck it up and spend a little more to put a good team on the field. But that's not how the Marlins work. They're losing money, and Jeter & Co. need to turn the Marlins around as a business, too. You can't spend money you don't have. This isn't like going to college or running a government.
Stanton's trade value might never be higher. Think back to just seven months ago, at the end of spring training. What was your opinion of Stanton? Many thought: great player, incredible potential, but always hurt and maybe not worth all that money. Would he ever put it together for a whole year?
He did put it together for a whole year, and the result was super. Stanton is an extremely desirable player. The list of teams interested in acquiring him is a long one. (The list of teams with the means to acquire him is shorter.) The Marlins don't know how long this perception of/production from Stanton will last, and it's very possible 2017 ends up being the best year of Stanton's career.
What if Stanton — whose lengthy injury history doesn't merely disappear with one full season — gets hurt again? What if he slumps, like he did for so much of 2016? If the Marlins keep Stanton heading into 2018, they would be a cruel twist of fate away from Stanton's contract again looking like a potential albatross.
The Marlins need to restock their farm system. The quantity and quality of player the Marlins would receive in exchange for Stanton is not clear. The eventual answer depends, again, on money. If the Marlins agree to take on a significant percentage of Stanton's future salaries, they'll get more/better players back. If their primary focus is shedding the money, the package will be lesser.
Either way, the Marlins' farm system is widely regarded as one of the worst — if not the worst — in baseball. A smoothly operating prospect pipeline is critical to the Marlins' long-term success, and it'll be an area of focus under CEO Jeter. Moving Stanton is a part of that effort.
"We do have to rebuild the organization. It starts with player development, scouting," Jeter said at his introductory news conference. "We have to be strong in those areas, because if you're going to have a sustainable organization over time, you need that pipeline of young players that can come in."
Stanton doesn't want to stick around for a rebuild. He said that point-blank after the Marlins' last game of the year, when fans at Marlins Park gave him a rare standing ovation after his final at-bat. Rebuilding typically means losing — losing a lot — for a couple of years. Why would you want a mopey superstar on your developing team?
Don't forget about Stanton's biting comments in July after the Marlins lost two out of three to the lowly Phillies. Stanton was asked about his individual success (4 for 11 with four homers in the series).
"Honestly, if you're going to lose, lose a series, it's whatever. I don't really care," Stanton said. "If it's not enough to help win, then personal stuff (doesn't matter). I've had enough personal stuff. If we don't win, it's not that fun."
It's not hard to extrapolate that to the Marlins' situation overall. Eight years into his career, Stanton has never played on a winning team. He's had enough of the losing.
The idea that Stanton is a big draw is overrated. Stanton is the face of the franchise, and in other markets he might be a legitimate attendance booster. But it's impossible to say many Marlins fans attend or watch games specifically for him.
The Marlins averaged 20,395 fans per home game in 2017. That ranked fourth worst in the majors. Miami has been a bottom-four team in that category every year since 2013. You can say fans won't show up if Stanton is traded, but the reality is the Marlins don't have much to lose on that front.
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