Their first winning streak of the season, modest as it may be, was enough for Falcons to take control of the NFC South.
But the Falcons (4-6) appear to have a tougher path to a division championship than South contenders New Orleans (4-6) and Carolina (3-7-1). That’s a major reason the advanced statistical website Football Outsiders gives the Saints the best chance to win the division (59.2 percent) followed by the Falcons (33.8), Panthers (6.7) and Buccaneers (0.3).
The Falcons are 4-0 in the division with a victory over the Saints but face the Browns (6-4) on Sunday at the Georgia Dome in search of their first victory in seven tries outside of the NFC South.
“Whoever we play that week, that’s our focus, try to win that game,” Falcons wide receiver Roddy White said. “We don’t have any division games for a while. We’ve got to take care of business outside of our division right now. We’ve won all games in the division — been pretty consistent in that — but we’ve got to try to win games outside of our division and help ourselves get in a better spot.”
At least the Falcons are in position to make a run at the South title. They did not appear to have much of a shot after they blew a three-touchdown lead in a 22-21 loss to the Lions on Oct. 26 in London.
But the Falcons followed a bye week with victories over the Buccaneers (2-8) and Panthers. That winning streak, combined with a two-game slide by New Orleans, put the Falcons in control of the division.
“There’s a lot of football to be played, but we are aware of where we are,” Falcons coach Mike Smith said. “Our goal is to continue to improve. We’ve got some young guys that started getting significant playing time at different positions across the board. I think that they’re improving. I think everybody’s aware of what we need to do this week.”
It won’t be easy for the Falcons to stay on top of the division. By any assessment of the numbers, they have the toughest schedule left among South teams.
The Falcons’ six remaining opponents have the highest combined winning percentage (.592) among NFC South opponents. The Saints’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .418 and Carolina’s opponents are .500.
After last weekend’s games, the teams left on the Falcons’ schedule had a better average NFL ranking for yards gained per play (13.7) than opponents for the Saints (17.2) and Panthers (15.8). The remaining Falcons opponents had an average yards-per-play-allowed ranking of 20.8 compared to 23.8 for the Saints and 20.8 for the Panthers.
Those numbers don’t take into account such factors as injuries, luck and the possibility of improvement (or regression) over the final six games.
The most notable advantage for the Falcons is the division-high four home games they have remaining. The Falcons last played at the Georgia Dome on Oct. 12 against the Bears, who gave them their first defeat in three games at the Dome this season.
“I heard somebody joking in the locker room they don’t know what shoes to bring, they can’t remember if it’s grass or turf,” Smith said. “We’re very excited about being back in the Dome. It’s been 42 days since we played a game in our home stadium.”
Also, the Falcons’ next two opponents also are having some bad injury luck.
The Browns have several key players on the injury report this week and star wide receiver Josh Gordon is just returning from a 10-game league suspension. The Falcons’ Week 13 opponent, Arizona, will have Drew Stanton at quarterback after Carson Palmer suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday.
The Falcons may have some circumstances working in their favor but the statistics suggest they’ll have to play better if they want to win the NFC South, even though it may not take much.
“Usually you say, ‘One of these teams is going to get hot and get on a streak,’” NBC Sports analyst Tony Dungy said. “I don’t see that happening. I think seven wins wins this division. First team to seven wins.”
