Picking high in the draft is no guarantee that a NFL team will land a Pro Bowl talent.
Falcons coach Dan Quinn and general manger Thomas Dimitroff will lead the teams’ contingent of executives, coaches and scouts at the scouting combine which is set to start Tuesday and run through February 23 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The last time the Falcons had the eighth pick in the NFL draft, they passed on linebacker Patrick Willis (11th to San Francisco), running back Marshawn Lynch (12th to Buffalo) and cornerback Darrell Revis (14th to the New York Jets) back in 2007.
With the team looking to improve its pass rush, they selected Arkansas defensive end Jamaal Anderson, who played six years in the league, but never turned into much of a pass rusher. He finished with 7.5 career sacks and three of those came after he was released by the Falcons.
If they would have picked the best available player, they likely would have came away with Willis. Instead, they picked for a need and Anderson wasn’t good enough to fill the need. Willis went on to become a seven-time Pro Bowler and five-time first-team All-Pro linebacker.
The Falcons earned the eighth pick for the 2015 draft by going 6-10 last season. Much like back in 2007, they are in dire need of finding a pass rusher.
Quinn and Dimitroff will have their eyes and stop watchers aimed at the defensive ends eligible for the draft, which is set for April 30 to May 2 in Chicago.
“It’s a hard evaluation,” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said on Monday when asked about defensive ends.
Nebraska’s Randy Gregory, Missouri’s Shane Ray, Florida’s Dante Flower or Clemson Vic Beasley could be available when the Falcons pick.
“Coming off the edge, first and foremost, you have to be a great pass rusher or have the ability to become a great pass rusher,” Mayock said. “When you look at Fowler, Gregory and Ray, all three of them can (rush the passer).”
In addition to rushing the passer, the players need other skills.
“You have to be tough enough and big enough to set a physical edge,” Mayock said. “That’s where I get nervous a little bit about Gregory, Ray and Vic Beasley. Let’s see what they weight.”
Gregory (240 pounds), Beasley (235) and Ray (245) are lighter than the bulker Fowler (260), according to their college weights. Mayock wants to see what they weigh at the combine. Sometimes, college weights are inflated.
“You get a little nervous about a kid like Vic Beasley, who’s a gifted, gifted pass rusher,” Mayock said. “If he’s only 230 (pounds) and doesn’t have the explosion to get under people and play with leverage and power, then it’s hard to say he’s going to translate to the NFL.”
Mayock has Fowler as his top-ranked edge rusher followed by Gregory, Ray, Beasley, of Adairsville, and Kentucky’s Bud Dupree, of Wilkinson County
“I think guys have to bring power and strength in to the equation,” Mayock said. “Sometimes, that gets overlooked.”
NFL teams have had a hard time evaluating the pass rushers over the past four drafts.
In 2011, there was a good class of pass rushers that included Aldon Smith (San Francisco), J.J. Watt (Houston), Robert Quinn (St. Louis), Justin Houston (Kansas City) and Von Miller (Denver).
There was a drop off in 2012.
“Maybe Chandler Jones,” Mayock said. “Maybe Quinton Coples. That’s it.”
In 2013, Detroit took a gamble on Ziggy Ansah with the fifth overall pick. He’s had 15.5 sacks over two seasons.
But Miami, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have not received similar production from Dion Jordan (third overall), Barkevious Mingo (sixth), former Georgia standout Jarvis Jones (17th) nor Bjoern Werner (24th).
“That’s one for five in 2013,” Mayock said.
Last year’s draft didn’t yield much pass rushing talent.
“The jury is out on (Jadeveon) Clowney, Dee Ford, Marcus Smith and DeMarcus Lawrence,” Mayock said.
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