Despite having a 4.4 percent chance to make Super Bowl LII according to ESPN.com’s football power index, the Atlanta Falcons still have a manageable path to play for the Lombardi Trophy.
ESPN writer Bill Barnwell wrote Monday that the Falcons have the fourth "clearest" route to reach the Super Bowl among the eight remaining teams.
Atlanta, the No. 6 seed, heads to Philadelphia this week to take on the top-seeded Eagles, following its 26-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday. If the Falcons are victorious, they will either play on the road at New Orleans or at Minnesota. And if they win that game, then it’s on to the Super Bowl in Minneapolis.
Unlike last season’s version of the Falcons, 2017 has been all about the defense, and it showed once again while facing the Rams top-scoring offense.
“The Falcons shut down the Rams at what they did better than anybody else in 2017: get yardage after the catch,” Barnwell wrote. “Sean McVay's team produced an average of 6.6 (yards after catch) per reception this season, which topped the league and was the fifth-best mark of the past decade. The Falcons managed to hold Los Angeles to an average of just 2.6 YAC on their 24 catches Saturday night. It was their best job all season of limiting teams after the catch, and of the 520 defensive performances from this NFL season, Atlanta delivered the 24th-fewest YAC in any game.”
Safety Brian Poole had two critical open-field tackles, while cornerbacks Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant combined for five pass breakups. Atlanta had 10 total pass breakups on Jared Goff’s 21 incompletions.
Once again though, Atlanta’s offense wasn’t anything to write home about. The Falcons hit their 20-point threshold, now moving to 11-0 this season when scoring at least 20 points. However, quarterback Matt Ryan was under pressure all night long from the Rams pass rush. Barnwell writes the offensive line needs to step up if the Falcons are to be successful.
While the offense could struggle, Atlanta’s defense is heading into an inviting situation.
“Philadelphia's quarterback (Nick Foles) averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt and posted a Total QBR of just 28.1 over his three starts in December, placing him behind Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer for 29th in the league,” Barnwell wrote. “The Philadelphia running game also has gone into the tank since he arrived, as the Eagles ranked fourth in wins added with their running game through Week 14 and subsequently fell to 28th in Weeks 15-17.”
Also of note is the Eagles have been using a backup left tackle, Halapoulivaati Vaitai. The last time Adrian Clayborn faced a backup left tackle, he set a franchise-record with six sacks in one game against the Dallas Cowboys.
“Getting to play the Eagles as a favorite, though, is an unprecedented treat for a sixth seed,” Barnwell wrote. “They probably would prefer to play the Saints, with whom they split the season series, as opposed to the Vikings, but the Falcons should be competitive in either matchup.”
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