After three weeks, the ACC Coastal Division picture is clearer, at least by a little. A division where a 6-2 league record is usually good enough to win it, the Coastal again is tough to call. A look at the division’s seven teams going into the fourth week of the season, when three teams (Duke, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh) will play their ACC openers.
Duke
Preseason poll: Sixth
Record: 3-0 – defeated N.C. Central 60-7, defeated Northwestern 41-7, defeated Baylor 34-20
Coach David Cutcliffe said in the preseason that this team was his deepest and most talented at Duke in his 10 seasons and the Blue Devils look the part. Duke is No. 17 nationally in defensive yards per play at 4.08 and are making plays behind the line of scrimmage. Two power-conference wins is nothing to sneeze at. Baylor is down, but Northwestern was picked to finish second in its Big Ten division.
Quarterback Daniel Jones, one of only two returning starters in the division at the position, is a run-pass threat who is completing 65 percent of his passes.
ESPN projection: 4-4
Faces Georgia Tech: Nov. 18 in Durham, N.C.
Assessment: The Blue Devils are always easy to downplay, but they've won the Coastal before. They're not the favorite, but they look like they can be a legitimate contender. They'll outperform their preseason ranking.
Georgia Tech
Preseason poll: Third
Record: 1-1 – Lost to Tennessee 42-41 (2OT), defeated Jacksonville State 27-10, UCF canceled
A game against UCF would have been instructive to help determine how legitimate the defensive improvements made against Jacksonville State were. That said, the Yellow Jackets have answered question marks at quarterback and B-back, and the defense showed some playmaking spark against Jacksonville State. For what it’s worth, Tennessee put up similar offensive numbers against Florida on Saturday that it did against Tech on Labor Day. It’s not clear if that’s a compliment or an indictment.
ESPN projection: 4-4
Assessment: The final two ACC games – home against Virginia Tech and at Duke – look like tough tests that will determine whether the Jackets can outperform their preseason slotting.
Miami
Preseason poll: First
Record: 1-0 – defeated Bethune-Cookman 41-13; at Arkansas State cancelled, at Florida State postponed
The story of the Hurricanes thus far is the impact that Hurricane Irma has wrought. When Miami plays Saturday against Toledo, it will be the Hurricanes’ first game in 21 days. With the closing of campus and players dispersing, the team finally got back together in Orlando, Fla., where coach Mark Richt led the Hurricanes’ first practice in 11 days on Saturday. They’ll return to campus in the middle of the week. Miami has the same talented cast – notably running back Mark Walton and linebacker Shaq Quarterman – but it remains to be seen how the long layoff will affect the Hurricanes the rest of the way.
ESPN projection: 5-3
Faces Georgia Tech: Oct. 14 in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Assessment: There's the caveat that the Hurricanes have never won the Coastal, and the layoff makes their route the rest of the way less predictable. But they'll likely be in it at the end.
North Carolina
Preseason poll: Fifth
Record: 1-2 – lost to Cal 35-30, lost to Louisville 47-35, defeated Old Dominion 53-23
Louisville put up scary numbers on the Tar Heels, piling up 705 yards in 83 plays, an 8.5 yards-per-play average. On the same afternoon, UNC averaged .7 yards per rush attempt.
The Tar Heels are tougher to read. They lost a ton on offense, but quarterback Chazz Surratt looks like a playmaker, completing 70 percent of his passes and averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. Cal, the opponent in the opener, looks legitimate, having also beaten Ole Miss this past Saturday, and Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson may be better than he was last year, when he won the Heisman Trophy. They may not be the most ignoble of results by season’s end.
ESPN projection: 4-4
Faces Georgia Tech: September 30 in Atlanta
Assessment: Injuries look like they're biting the Tar Heels, but this relatively young team could grow considerably over the season. A level ACC record seems about right.
Pittsburgh
Preseason poll: Fourth
Record: 1-2 – defeated Youngstown State 28-21 (OT), lost to No. 4 Penn State 33-14, lost to No. 9 Oklahoma State 59-21
The Panthers tested themselves and the results aren’t pretty. Pitt was down 49-7 late in the first half against Oklahoma State. The Panthers outgained Penn State 342-312 and held the ball for 38 minutes, but was minus-3 in turnover margin. Now, coach Pat Narduzzi is unsettled at quarterback, where Ben DiNucci replaced starter Max Browne midway through the loss to the Cowboys. With All-American running back James Conner in the NFL, Pitt is also 104th in yards per rush at 3.53.
ESPN projection: 1-7
Faces Georgia Tech: Saturday in Atlanta
Assessment: With not a lot of strengths to point to and a young roster – 52 freshmen and 15 seniors – Narduzzi's third season could be bumpy.
Virginia
Preseason poll: Seventh
Record: 2-1 – Defeated William & Mary 27-10, lost to Indiana 34-17, defeated Connecticut 38-18
Like North Carolina, the Cavaliers are difficult to decipher. William & Mary is a decent FCS team, and the Cavaliers didn’t beat anyone by 17 points last year. Likewise, Connecticut isn’t going to scare anyone, but UVA unloaded 626 yards of offense (8.82 yards per play) on the Huskies, something the Cavaliers haven’t done to anybody since 2012. But then, Indiana dominated Virginia, holding the Cavaliers to 55 rushing yards on 25 carries.
Wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus is a player to watch.
ESPN projection: 1-7
Faces Georgia Tech: November 4 in Charlottesville, Va.
Assessment: A guess is here is that Virginia is better than advertised and will pull a surprise or two.
Virginia Tech
Preseason poll: Second
Record: 3-0 – defeated West Virginia 31-24, defeated Delaware 27-0, defeated East Carolina 64-17
Virginia Tech owns perhaps the most legitimate win of any Coastal team with its defeat of then-No. 22 West Virginia on a neutral site. Quarterback Josh Jackson, a redshirt freshman, looks like trouble, averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per carry.
It’s hard to assign much weight to the wins over Delaware and East Carolina (the Pirates have lost 12 of the past 13), but they won both convincingly, which is all you can ask. The Hokies scored 57 unanswered points against ECU and racked up 675 yards of offense, tying a school record.
ESPN projection: 6-2
Faces Georgia Tech: Nov. 11 in Atlanta
Assessment: The combination of Jackson and wide receiver Cam Phillips (27 catches, 15.4 yards per reception) and the standard of Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster make Virginia Tech the favorite. The Sept. 30 matchup vs. Clemson at Lane Stadium could be fun to watch.
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