Houston is set up to accomplish something in 2016 that college football experts believe to be practically impossible: earning a spot in the College Football Playoff while playing in a conference perceived to be a step below vaunted Power 5.
The Cougars, hailing from the American Athletic Conference, seem to have the tools to overcome that inferiority perception. Coveted Cougars coach Tom Herman has signed on for at least another season and dynamic quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is expected to return to lead the program through a schedule that kicks off with an opportunity game against Oklahoma in Houston.
But in reality, the Cougars’ path to next year’s playoff actually starts Thursday against Florida State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. That’s how challenging it is for teams from the Group of 5 conferences like Houston. To have a legitimate shot at earning one of the four CFP bids, a Group of 5 team almost has to win impressively for two seasons.
“I think the only shot a non-Power 5 school has of cracking the playoff four is if they can get enough momentum from the season before,” college football reporter Bruce Feldman of FoxSports.com said. “By beating FSU (the season before), I think it would validate Houston in the minds of some (CFP) committee members, even if they say it only matters what happens in the course of one season.
“The committee kept giving Ohio State the benefit of the doubt this season despite lackluster showings and even touted OSU’s potential, which I suspect was rooted in the Buckeyes beating Alabama and Oregon last year.”
As a member of the AAC, Houston is in the Group of 5, along with Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt. Meanwhile, the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC have been deemed the Power 5. In the eyes of AAC commissioner Michael Aresco, that is a distinction without difference.
“Around here,”Aresco said, “we really hate the ‘Group of 5.’ We don’t like that at all. We feel like it’s created some separation that really isn’t there. Our league is very good, very deep and I think it is underappreciated.”
The separation may not be there — AAC powers Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati went 5-0 versus Power 5 teams this season — but the Group of 5 stigma remains real. In its Dec. 6 rankings, the CFP committee stuck 12-1 Houston at No. 18, six spots behind 9-3 Ole Miss. That Rebels team lost to Memphis by two touchdowns. Houston beat Memphis, in addition to non-conference wins over Louisville and Vanderbilt.
“It does create a perception and a separation that we will likely continue to struggle with,” Aresco said. “Houston is the perfect example this year. And, yes, they did not have the one so-called signature win against a top-10 or top-25 team, because they didn’t happen to play one this year. If (12-1) Houston were to have beaten UConn and finished undefeated, it would have been very interesting to see what the conversation was like.”
In search of a signature win under Herman, Houston is a touchdown underdog to the Seminoles in Thursday’s game at the Georgia Dome. An uncompetitive performance against FSU would not only spoil the end of this season for the Cougars, but it also would reduce their preseason respect next season.
“I don’t think we’ll ever see a non-Power 5 team get in (the playoff),” ESPN college football writer Brett McMurphy said. “We can debate whether they should be in there or not, but the way the committee evaluates teams, one of the big components is strength of schedule. So even if you get that one impressive non-conference win, the committee is going to hold it against these teams, because of the conference they play in. The system is set up in a way that they’ll never be able to get in.”
McMurphy points to Memphis an example. The Tigers were 8-0 with a win over Ole Miss, when the first CFP rankings were released Nov. 6. Memphis was ranked 13th, behind five one-loss teams.
“Time is going to tell,” Aresco said. “I say to our teams, coaches, players and administrators, we simply have to keep winning. And we have to win some big, big games. We’ll probably have to be undefeated, although I hope down the road a one-loss team in our conference can get the same type of consideration that the P-5 get. But I’m not necessarily confident that’s going to happen.”
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