The most important games of the season for Florida State followers outside those involving their team will include Alabama, Oregon and even Missouri.
FSU might hold the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings, but that position is tenuous, at best.
If the major contenders remain unbeaten, even an improved ACC might not be enough for Florida State to remain at No. 2 and the Seminoles could be on the outside looking in when the national title game is set.
BCS experts, including Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com, agree that if Alabama, FSU and Oregon — the top three teams in the BCS standings — remain unbeaten, Oregon will pass FSU and play the Tide in the title game.
But Palm believes the handwringing has started prematurely, as it typically does, considering just once in the history of the BCS have three teams from major conferences finished the season undefeated.
“If you’re Florida State and you win out, history says you are going to play for the title because it has a way of working itself out,” Palm said. “By the time we get to November, we’re talking about which one-loss team is playing for the title.”
The Seminoles gave themselves a huge boost Saturday night by routing the team that had been No. 3 in the polls, Clemson, 51-14 on the road to wind up one spot ahead of Oregon in the initial BCS standings released Sunday night. FSU is No. 3 in all the significant polls but is the top-ranked team when it comes to the computers, which take in strength of schedule.
Palm says the Seminoles can thank the improved ACC, for now. Three teams from the league are in the top 10 of the BCS — FSU, No. 7 Miami, No. 9 Clemson — which is more than any other conference. Add No. 14 Virginia Tech and only the SEC has as many teams in the top 15 of the initial standings.
Last year, it was the computers that suppressed FSU’s BCS ranking.
“The league is better, plus they beat a top-rated team (Clemson) which helps and Maryland has a good record,” Palm said. “Different year, different schedule, different circumstances.”
FSU also will benefit from Miami’s resurgence when they meet Nov. 2 in Tallahassee, but many believe a victory in that game wouldn’t be enough to overtake either Alabama or Oregon and even Missouri if the Tigers run the table.
Here’s a breakdown of the top 5 teams in the BCS standings:
No. 1 Alabama (7-0): The Crimson Tide's schedule has included four teams — Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn — that are between No. 11 and 16 in the BCS standings. Alabama's most difficult games left in the regular season are against No. 13 LSU and at No. 11 Auburn. The Tide likely then will play the winner of Saturday's South Carolina-Missouri game in the SEC title game.
No. 2 Florida State (6-0): No. 7 Miami is the only team in the current BCS standings remaining on the Seminoles' regular-season schedule. FSU's other five opponents are a combined 15-19. The Noles likely will play either Miami or Virginia Tech in the ACC title game.
No. 3 Oregon (7-0): The Ducks have yet to play a team currently in the BCS standings. But they have plenty of chances to impress with games left against No. 12 UCLA, No. 6 Stanford, No. 25 Oregon State and, if they remain unbeaten, a quality opponent in the Pac-12 title game. Oregon has the most difficult road to an unbeaten season of the top three teams, especially with a game at Stanford. The Cardinal handed Oregon its only loss in 2012 with a 17-14 overtime win in Eugene, knocking the Ducks out of the No. 1 spot and the national title game.
No. 4 Ohio State (7-0): The Buckeyes, who own the nation's longest winning streak at 19, need a lot of help to overcome a very weak nonconference schedule and a mediocre Big Ten. The only team on Ohio State's schedule currently in the BCS standings is No. 22 Michigan.
No. 5 Missouri (7-0): The Tigers are making it interesting. Like Alabama and Oregon, Missouri could also control its destiny. The key for Missouri to crack the top two is for Alabama to be unbeaten and No. 1 if they meet in the SEC title game. Then, a victorious Missouri could rise and challenge an undefeated FSU for that No. 2 spot if Oregon is No. 1.
Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher knows his team can’t duck the spotlight, but he also knows his players can’t get caught up in the noise if they want to continue being a part of the national title game conversation.
“Learning to prioritize is very critical … and not changing those priorities,” Fisher said when asked about the BCS. “That’s what our purpose will be on and that’s how we prepare and how we play. Control the things we can control.”
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