Another Selection Sunday is in the books, and over 60 million Americans will once again fill out NCAA Tournament brackets. While statisticians will get quoted in countless publications in the coming days stating that the odds of a perfect bracket are about 9.2 quintillion-to-one, what they won't tell you is that those are the odds of a perfect bracket filled out randomly. But everyone knows that a 16-seed has never beaten a 1-seed.
When armed with what is referred to as expert basketball knowledge, the odds of selecting a perfect bracket actually increase significantly—to 128 billion-to-1. Read further on this year's top seeds, potential Cinderella teams, and easy paths to help capture the madness in your bracket and be one of those with the expert basketball knowledge necessary to seek the 128 billion-to-1 shot at the holy grail of March Madness.
The top overall seed in this year's field of 68 is the Big East Champion Louisville Cardinals. Armed with the No. 1 adjusted defensive rating in the country, Rick Pitino's boys have been wreaking havoc on opponents yet again with their tenacious full court press. Louisville also carried the No. 1 adjusted defense rating in the country last year, and rode it all the way to the Final Four as the four seed in the West Region. This is no foreign territory for Pitino, Russ Smith, Peyton Siva and crew.
This year, the Cardinals get an easier draw opening the first two rounds with home court at UK's Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky., before traveling a short distance to Indianapolis for the Midwest Regionals. While St. Louis certainly represents a tough mid-major draw in the 3rd round ala Butler in years past, it's not likely that the Billikens' 58th ranked offense will be able to crack the Louisville D. And naturally, we can write off Duke for being Duke-- and a 2-seed. All four of the Blue Devils' National Championships have come as a 1-seed, and while trends are made to be broken, let's just assume that this one holds for another year. According to TiqIQ, the average price for NCAA Tournament tickets to follow Louisville's road currently look like this:
Rupp Arena (Lexington, Ky.)
- Session 1: $126
- Session 2: $120
- Session 3: $176
Midwest Regional
- Session 1: $208
- Session 2: $187
Down in the South, it's likely that the region houses the weakest of the 1-seeds in last year's runner-up Kansas Jayhawks. While the Jayhawks rank 25th in the country in offense and 5th in defense, it is the 3-seed in the region, the Florida Gators, who are probably the region's strongest team. The Gators check as the #1 overall team in the country according to NCAA stat guru Ken Pomeroy, and are the only team in the country to rank top-10 in both offense and defense. Historically, ranking top-10 in both has been a great recipe for success, and with the 5th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense, the Gators begin to craft a case for themselves as a slick selection to differentiate your bracket in avoidance of chalk.
The Jayhawks open up in Kansas City, MO, while the Gators play in Austin, Texas. The 2-seed Georgetown Hoyas of the region have a nice little opening draw in nearby Philadelphia, but with the regionals taking place in North Texas, it's the Gators who barely have to travel at all once the tournament commences to punch their Final Four tickets. According to TiqIQ, fans of those teams that make it to the regional finals will get to take advantage of the least expensive Sweet 16 and Elite Eight tickets of any region. Average ticket prices for the venues of the South are:
Sprint Center (Kansas City, Mo.)
- • Session 1: $221
- • Session 2: $230
- • Session 3: $298
The Palace of Auburn Hills (Auburn Hills, Mich.)
- Session 1: $140
- Session 2: $143
- Session 3: $233
Frank Erwin Center (Austin, Texas)
- Session 1: $113
- Session 2: $135
- Session 3: $136
Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia)
- Session 1: $156
- Session 2: $158
- Session 3: $212
South Regional
- Session 1: $162
- Session 2: $171
Gonzaga was able to snag the 1-seed in West with the best record in college basketball this season at 31-2. Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only one other mid-major team has earned a 1-seed. That team would of course be the Memphis Tigers, who turned a 1-seed into a National Championship Game appearance back in 2008, when they lost to Kansas in overtime in a classic national championship game. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they could very well run into a severely under-seeded Pittsburgh team in the round of 32, and may not have the same luck as Memphis did.
With impressive wins this season over Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, and Villanova, the Pitt Panthers are no stranger to big games having even played Louisville to within three points earlier this year. While Kelly Olynyk's incredible efficiency has led Gonzaga to the 3rd best offensive rating in the country, Pitt isn't far behind at 9th. The Panthers are no slouch on defense either, as Jamie Dixon's bunch ranks just three spots behind the Zags at 17th in the country. While it's been overwhelmingly safe historically to pencil in all 1-seeds to the Sweet 16, don't be surprised if Pitt gives Gonzaga a tough test out in Salt Lake City at EnergySolutions Arena.
The West Region is really no easier at any other point, either. With Big Ten champion Ohio State taking the 2-seed and playing out of Dayton, Ohio, and Big Ten runner-up Wisconsin in the five, this could really be the grueling region that makes or breaks people's pools. Wisconsin actually finished the season ranked 3rd in defense, while Ohio State finished 6th. With tough test after tough test on Gonzaga's path, it becomes difficult to see how they aren't the least likely 1-seed to make it to Atlanta.
Including the most expensive session of this year's tourney in the 1st session of the regional at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, TiqIQ has the various sessions for this region priced on average as follows:
EnergySolutions Arena (Salt Lake City, Utah)
- Session 1: $134
- Session 2: $147
- Session 3: $197
UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
- Session 1: $153
- Session 2: $161
- Session 3: $194
West Regional
- Session 1: $649
- Session 2: $318
Over in the East, it seems that the selection committee has rewarded Indiana with a pretty easy pathway to a Final Four berth. While Miami was able to take home the ACC title, the Hurricanes rank 20th and 22nd in offense and defense respectively, and had losses worse than their marquee wins were good. Lower seeded teams that live and die by the three have historically made good sleepers to advance a few rounds and slay a giant or two, but a 2-seed such as Miami that relies so heavily on the three makes them ripe for upset.
Miami's saving grace may be that Marquette is perhaps the weakest of the top 20 teams in the tournament, and somehow snagged a 3-seed. Marquette ranks 17th in the country in offense and 50th in defense, and was actually one win worse than conference rival Pittsburgh who drew a paltry 8-seed. It's not unfathomable that Marquette becomes another 14 v 3 upset at the hands of Davidson, creating somewhat of an easy pathway for Miami, or sleeper 7-seed Illinois to punch a sleeper ticket to the Elite 8. No stranger to winning big time games, Illinois has knocked off Indiana, Ohio State, Gonzaga, Butler, and Minnesota this season. With the sharpshooting backcourt of Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson, both of whom average 2.2+ 3 pointers per game, John Groce's Illini might just be the underrated major conference team for whom the slipper fits this season.
Interestingly enough, with the exception of Lexington, the opening round sites for the East Region aren't even on the eastern side of this country. In fact, 4-seed Syracuse plays at the westernmost site in the entire tournament, San Jose, Calif. Average ticket prices for the East Region include:
HP Pavilion (San Jose, Calif.)
- Session 1: $162
- Session 2: $206
- Session 3: $254
East Regional
- Session 1: $382
- Session 2: $420
Once we get to the Final Four though, things should shake out to expectations as they usually do. The four best teams in the country are Louisville, Florida, Indiana, and Ohio State, probably in that order. While the mentor vs. prodigy stories will get tiresome, a Pitino versus Donovan/Louisville versus Florida national championship game would promise to be one of the most fast-paced and exciting games one could possibly conjure to cap off a crazy season of college basketball. With a 128 billion-to-1 shot at completing a perfect bracket, you might as well pull for the game you want to see—especially when it involves the two best teams in the country. It certainly doesn't hurt that Florida is sleepily under-seeded and is exactly the type of selection that could loft your bracket to the top of your pool.
Final Four: Louisville over Ohio State, Florida over Indiana
Champion: Louisville
Best Sleepers: Creighton, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Virginia Commonwealth, Illinois, California, Davidson
Final Four
Semis: $589
Finals: $527
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