The Hawks could sign Al Horford to a max deal and create enough salary-cap space to sign another player to a max deal.
Would you do that?
It’s possible in what could be a very interesting summer for the franchise.
The Hawks’ No. 1 priority is to bring back Horford, Kent Bazemore and possibly Kris Humphries as unrestricted free agents. They also will need to figure out their point guard situation — which means an almost assured trade of either Jeff Teague or Dennis Schroder.
Those are the likely scenarios. However, there is a chance the Hawks could shoot for the stars and line up Horford with another max player such as Oklahoma City forward Kevin Durant or Toronto guard DeMar DeRozan — likely the three players on the market who will get max deals.
Let’s look closer at the Hawks’ options.
• Unlike last season, when the Hawks had to choose between unrestricted free agents Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll, they are in a different salary-cap situation this summer. It makes sense that the priorities would be to bring back Horford and Bazemore and to try to create enough additional room for Humphries. They would bring back almost the entire team — again, minus one of the point guards — to compete in the Eastern Conference.
To me, the East will be wide open again. The Cavaliers could lose LeBron James. The Raptors are at least going to lose Bismack Biyombo and possibly DeRozan. The Bulls could lose Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol.
Who is the rising team in the East? It’s very unstable. With much the same team, the Hawks again will be one of the top teams in the conference. They lost 12 games to teams under .500 and all six overtime games last season. A little different result in those games, and the Hawks could be closer to the 60-win team of two seasons ago than the 48-win team of last season.
It makes sense for the Hawks to bring back only one of the point guards. That would make sense for Teague, Schroder and the Hawks. Because it makes sense for all three parties, this is something that likely will happen. I would point to the night of the NBA Draft on June 23, but it could certainly happen in July when the league’s free-agency picture becomes clearer — both for the Hawks and the many other teams with money to spend.
• When you look at salary-cap situation (and I have, but will spare you the mind-numbing details), the Hawks basically have room for Horford (with an $18.5 million cap hold) plus $20 million to spend this summer. That $20 million will be split between Bazemore, Humphries, a first-round pick (No. 21 overall), Mike Muscala and Lamar Patterson.
The salary cap is projected to be $92 million, but there are rumblings it could go to $94 million.
However, there might be a parallel strategy where the Hawks are only $5 million away from another max player. That is easily gained in a Teague trade and one or two other moves. That would net the space for a Durant, DeRozan or perhaps a player such as Nicolas Batum. If Horford elects to leave for another team, the Hawks could sign two max players this summer.
Hawks general manager Wes Wilcox has done an excellent job of being very protective of the future. It is clear management loves the current team, electing to keep it intact at last season’s trade deadline. They have all of their coming first-round picks plus one from the Timberwolves in a year to be determined. They have all their coming second-round picks plus four more from other teams. They could easily attach those picks to a contract and move a player, a very conceivable way to get a second max player.
As I have previously written and broken down the numbers, a maximum deal for Horford would be five years and about $150 million from the Hawks and four years and about $111 million from another team. Each deal would start at about $26 million for the 30-year-old.
There is a question in trading a player such as Teague. What is the priority for the return? The Hawks could look toward the future with draft picks. They could look at improving the team as it is currently constructed. They could opt for a young, developing player who can grow in the system.
• Finally, if you look at the summer of 2017, it could get even more interesting for the Hawks. They have no guaranteed money on the books after next season. Millsap has a player option, Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr. are eligible for qualifying offers and there is a team option on Edy Tavares. All of that money would total about $21.5 million. That’s it.
The Hawks could start over with the ability to bring in three max players (which may include Horford). That is something to think about.
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