We know the Braves will trade anybody. That’s not the same as trading everybody. There’s a fine line between being fearless, which the Braves are, and foolish, which we all hope they’re not.
Trading Andrelton Simmons? That was fearless. Trading Freddie Freeman? That'd be foolish.
Widespread and vaguely sourced rumors to the contrary, the Braves have no plans to move Freeman. That doesn’t mean they won’t listen. That doesn’t mean general manager John Coppolella mightn’t text Billy Eppler, his opposite number in Anaheim, and ask: “Freeman for Trout – OK by you?” But just because the Braves traded their shortstop last week – to Eppler’s Angels, as fate would have it – doesn’t mean they intend to trade their first baseman this or any week.
Simmons had great value. Even good teams could stand an upgrade at shortstop – the Mets reached the World Series with Wilmer Flores; the Cardinals won 100 games with the 33-year-old Jhonny Peralta – and live with Simmons’ substandard offensive contributions. The Braves put a price on him and waited.
They came close to sending him to the Yankees in July. They asked the Mets for one of their prized young pitchers and were rebuffed. Finally the Angels agreed to part with their Nos. 1 and 2 prospects, both pitchers, and Erick Aybar, who might serve as the bridge to Ozzie Albies. After months of talking, the Braves got what they wanted. They’re happy with that trade.
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Demand for Freeman wouldn’t be nearly the same. Most good teams have a big-time first baseman. Of first basemen who made more than 400 plate appearances last season, Freeman ranked 11th in WAR value and 12th in OPS. In 2014, he ranked and 11th and seventh. He wouldn’t be cornerstone on every club. He’s a cornerstone here by default.
Over the past year, almost every Braves move involved the acquisition of pitching. Counting Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis, imported in the Simmons swap, the Braves have added a dozen pitchers of real promise who were 24 or younger. That was their stated intent – stockpile young pitching and use the surplus to buy position players.
Consider the aforementioned Mets. As late as July, their offense was so feeble they were compelled to buy Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe from the puny Braves. (Also Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers.) The Mets dealt four minor-league arms for three rental bats and landed in the World Series. Hitting tends to be easier to find than pitching, which is why pitching is more precious commodity.
For the moment, the Braves have enough young arms. That’s not to say they won’t search for more, but the procurement of pitching is no longer Job 1, 2 and 3. The Hector Olivera trade was their admission that they need a middle-of-the-order bat to pair with Freeman, and to get it they sent three big-leaguers and Jose Peraza to the Dodgers. To have paid that much for a hitter to complement Freeman makes no sense if Freeman is dealt.
The Braves aren’t ignorant of statistical truths. They know they finished last in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. They saw Shelby Miller go four calendar months between wins because he received the lowest run support among starters. To go from bad to good, the Braves at some point must move to barter young arms for proven bats. Their best move would be to keep the one run producer they have.
It would be no surprise if the 2016 Braves lost 100 games, which is an indignity they’re willing to suffer in the hope of brighter tomorrows. The Cubs and Astros just showed that big losers – the former lost 101 games in 2012 and 96 in 2013; the latter lost 416 games from 2011 through 2014 – can become playoff teams. Still, nobody in this organization wants to head north to SunTrust Park off a season of historic awfulness.
The Braves were willing to parlay Simmons into pitching. If they do that with Freeman, they could lose 110 games, which no team has done since the expansion Mets of Marvelous Marv Throneberry. That’s why the Braves won’t do that with Freeman. He’s not baseball’s best hitter, but among Braves he’s Babe Ruth.
