If the Braves are going to return to the postseason – and perhaps even advance – here are some keys to another run:
1. The young pitching blossoms
It doesn’t have to be every player, but the Braves need a couple of their prized prospects to break out. Maybe Kyle Wright continues his unpredicted emergence. Perhaps Bryse Wilson takes hold of a spot, or Touki Toussaint becomes the ultimate versatile piece. Mike Soroka could come back healthy and become the pitcher everyone envisioned.
If none of that happens, or the kids’ production is modest, the Braves might be in trouble. Julio Teheran is reliable for innings, but his results are sporadic. Sean Newcomb struggled with walks in the spring, and given his history, there’s a chance it doesn’t stabilize. Mike Foltynewicz is due back in April, but a sore elbow for your ace is always scary.
Toussaint was valuable in the waning games of 2018. But the Braves will need more than late assistance. They’ll need another Anibal Sanchez or two – except rather than a veteran, that production must come from a younger source.
2. The Donaldson-Freeman-Acuna trio is as advertised
This offense could be very, very good. It’ll be built around one of the game’s best trios (if healthy): Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna. On most nights, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis will bookend that combo.
Each of the three has MVP-level talent. Donaldson has one on his resume, while most assume Acuna’s is an inevitability. The Braves need those three to avoid any serious or nagging injuries. Freeman is the franchise face. Donaldson is the proven commodity added to fortify an already dangerous lineup. Acuna is the dynamic newcomer poised to take over the league.
“He’s not going to surprise anybody but he’s a special player,” Freeman said of Acuna. “That ceiling isn’t even close to getting touched, I think. A full season of him, hopefully he can stay healthy and not miss a month like he did last year. If he didn’t miss that month, who knows what his numbers would’ve been last year. He’s a special talent and he’s only 21 years old.”
The Braves need their “big three” to click. And it almost feels the only obstacle in their way, albeit potentially a large one, is staying on the field. If they do, they’ll create a substantial portion of the team’s runs.
3. The bullpen finds its heroes
Cries for Craig Kimbrel were justified. The Braves’ bullpen is a colossal unknown. Injuries have already stalled A.J. Minter, while sidelined Darren O’Day is yet to establish himself as an asset. Arodys Vizcaino doesn’t have a history of clean health. Chad Sobotka barely has any history at all.
Josh Tomlin arrived to fill a long-relief spot, but he’s probably a temporary aid. Jonny Venters is good, but the team can’t overuse him. Wes Parsons, Shane Carle, Jesse Biddle and Dan Winkler will factor in.
The Braves need a couple of reliable arms to rise from the crop. That could be one of the kids or a journeyman. It’s paramount they find enough pitchers to count on. Pitching coach Rick Kranitz has significant responsibility here – get the most out of these arms.
4. Health, health, health
The Braves stayed relatively healthy last season. There was the month-long Acuna absence, though that was before he took off. They’re well-positioned to handle injuries, with pitching depth galore and Charlie Culberson/Johan Camargo capable of playing everywhere, but that doesn’t mean a tweaked elbow or ankle can’t derail any promise.
An injury to Freeman or Acuna could be devastating. There’s already concern with Foltynewicz, who tops the team’s vast collection of pitchers. Donaldson has battled injuries throughout the past two campaigns. He’s fine now, but things can change rapidly.
In other words, nothing is assured with this group. They’ll just hope 1) to avoid severe wounds, 2) that their depth can patch up inevitable absences and 3) that they’re at full strength when it matters most, assuming they’re within striking distance of the postseason.
5. A little luck
A Charlie Culberson life saver (maybe more than one in a week). A Sobotka in September. A lineup change that accelerates the offense. A prospect or three arriving early. A late collapse by a rival.
The Braves’ 2019 success will require luck. Outperforming expectations, mostly clean bills of health, some unfortunate breaks for the opposition – there’s a lot that goes into it, especially when a division goes four-deep like the National League East.
“I think we might have the toughest division now in baseball from what I’ve seen and the moves that have been made,” Culberson said. “Everyone’s front office and ownerships are seeing that, so they are going out and getting guys.”
Plenty broke the Braves’ way last season. They can’t count on the same fortune, but as with any playoff-caliber year in any sport, it’ll require more than talent and confident managing.
