The 2016 MLB draft, in which the teams on display at Turner Field this week held the second and third picks, ended Saturday. These two clubs could hold the first and second picks the next time around, though the Minnesota Twins will have something to say about that. And yes, we’re not halfway into this season and we’re discussing draft positioning. What else are we supposed to do – calculate magic numbers?
The Cincinnati Reds arrived in town with the third-worst record in baseball, 5 ½ games ahead of the last-place Braves. (Who are a game behind the Minnesota Twins, with whom they’ve moved in virtual lockstep since Opening Day.) The Reds fashioned a ferocious closing flop –losing 14 of their final 15 games – last season to steal the No. 2 pick they spent on Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel on Thursday.
Had the Braves held that pick, they’d have faced a decision: They liked Senzel a lot. They also like Ian Anderson, the high school right-hander they took at No. 3. But had they taken a college bat, the tenor of the post-draft comments around here might have been rather different. (Not that post-draft commentary means anything in the grand scheme.)
If there’s a lesson to be learned, it’s this: If you’re going to be really bad, you might as well be the worst. (Not the worst ever – you don’t want that. Just the worst of a given year.) That way you don’t have to wait to see what other teams do; you get to do as you please.
As of Monday, FanGraphs projected the Braves to finish the season at 58-104 to the Reds' 65-97 and the Twins' 66-96. That seems a mighty comfy cushion for the local nine. Me being a pessimist, I'm thinking this could still turn into a real race for the bottom. Here's how:
Schedules: Of the Twins' and Reds' remaining games, 60 will be against teams currently above .500; 55 of the Braves' will be. From July 4 through Aug. 2, the Braves will play one game against a plus-.500 team. When losing is the aim, having the softest schedule isn't the ideal.
Trades: The best player the Braves are apt to trade before the Aug. 1 deadline is closer Arodys Vizcaino. (It will take a lot to get him.) The Reds are almost certain to jettison right fielder Jay Bruce, whose 14 homers are more than half as many as the Braves have as a team, and shortstop Zack Cozart. The best player the Twins figure to trade is starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco, who's no big deal. No team will be willing to assume the massive contracts of the Reds' Joey Votto or the Twins' Joe Mauer. Of the three teams, only the Reds figure to get much worse than they've been.
Head-to-head: As fate would have it, the Braves and Twins have four games remaining against one another. (Two there, two here.) The Reds don't play Minnesota, missing the opportunity to blow games against a team as bad as they are.
Playoff races: The National League East is no slouch, but the Marlins don't figure to stay above .500 and the Phillies have begun to plummet. The Reds play in the NL Central, home to the best-in-baseball Cubs, the always-good Cardinals and the good-again Pirates. Twenty of Cincy's final 29 games will be against those three. The Twins play in the AL Central, which has seen its leader as of late May – the White Sox – fall to fourth place. Minnesota has 23 of its final 29 against division brethren, three of whom could be jockeying for playoff position.
Bottom line: It would be massively wrenching to stink this bad and not claim the No. 1 pick, but that could happen. The Twins scare me. With their schedule, they could go 5-24 in September/October. I'm not sure the Braves can, though this team continues to amaze.
And that, folks, is what constitutes pennant fever in our Bizarro World: You win by losing the most. Yippee!
