The Braves have a walking problem, but there’s still little reason to overreact to a brief rut.
From distressed social-media postings to the questions manager Brian Snitker faced in Tuesday’s pregame, there’s been a level of exaggerated concern about the Braves’ latest slump, if it can even be called such.
They lost two of three to the Nationals, including a game featuring 14 walks, before dropping the series opener to the Cardinals on Monday. Starting a homestand 1-3 after a 6-1 trip in Arizona and San Francisco is understandably frustrating.
But it’s not damning: The Braves are, for whatever reason, a mediocre team at SunTrust Park. We have almost a full season’s sample size to make such judgment. They’re 38-37 at home with six games remaining entering Tuesday.
The Braves could become the second team since the first World Series (1903) to make the postseason with a losing record at home. Coincidentally, the Braves achieved such in 2001 with a 40-41 mark at Turner Field. They lost in the NLCS.
Since winning nine of 10 at SunTrust Park, they’ve lost 13 of 17 at home. Meanwhile, their 45-30 road mark is best in the National League.
Discourse regarding home struggles has persisted through the season. That’s just reality as the team approaches its final 12 games.
As for the walks, that’s worthy of anguish. The Braves have walked 39 over a five-game span, bringing their total to 585, the third-highest total in the bigs and already beyond last season’s amount. Of the 29 runs allowed this homestand, 13 were walks (45 percent).
“If I told you to go to sleep when you’re laying in bed, you’d sit there and look at the ceiling,” Snitker said. “You wouldn’t be able to do it. If I tell them to throw a strike, if I tell them ‘Don’t walk this guy,’ they’re going to walk them. If you tell them to throw a strike, they’re probably not.”
It’s conceptually similar to when an offense gets hot, Snitker opines, and each individual wants to be the next to stroke a base hit. The pitchers overthink, hoping to avoid bases on balls, and instead miss the strike zone.
“You try so hard it doesn’t happen,” Snitker added.
The Braves have issued the third most walks in the majors, behind both Chicago teams. They’ve allowed 143 homers, fifth most in MLB. An ill-fated combination the team’s overcome because of its offense, namely timely hitting.
Pitching has invoked wide-spread reaction throughout the season. There hasn’t been much consistency, but whatever combination sustains its performance at once has been enough. Braves pitchers required 16.6 pitches per inning – ninth most in the majors – yet their collective 3.78 ERA is ninth best.
Here’s the point: The Braves aren’t a perfect club, but they’re among the better ones. Their formula has worked, and through different issues, from leadoff man to third base to an imploding rotation to the bullpen enigmas, they still sit in first place.
That could haunt them come postseason, when they’ll probably see power-heavy lineups in Colorado or Los Angeles. But just making the division series would be an accomplishment; they can assess further needs in winter.
Math heavily favors the Braves regardless of how they finish. They’ve cut their magic number even during a three-game skid. The Phillies and Nationals are barely alive, though the Phillies get seven opportunities to take care of business themselves.
The Braves are a near lock for the postseason nonetheless. And sure, they’d rather enter the NLDS on a high note, but September results rarely reflect October performance. The 104-win, NL champion Dodgers of last season went 12-17 in the final month.
This club is currently is 9-7 and will finish with a week on the road, their apparent happy place. The Braves are feeling comfortable where they are. Unless the Phillies rediscover their distant winning ways, the East leaders have no reason to worry.
“This team’s resilient,” Snitker said. “I’ve seen them do it before and they’ll do it again. We’re a really good ballclub. It gets magnified in the beginning of the year, it gets magnified now. The guys just need to go out and relax and play their game.”
