Atlanta United’s chances of hosting MLS playoff game murky at best

Atlanta United went from scenarios in which it could clinch a home game in the MLS playoffs to, after Saturday’s morale-sucking 1-1 draw with Toronto, to calculating what it must do to make the playoffs.

After taking just one of three points against Toronto, Atlanta United is in fifth in the East with 47 points.

If it beats Red Bulls on Wednesday, it will secure a playoff berth. If it draws with Red Bulls, it will secure a spot if Montreal draws or loses to Houston on Wednesday. Atlanta United has never defeated Red Bulls in a regular season game.

Here is the table before Sunday’s games:

Atlanta United is in the fifth and final playoff spot in the East. Here is the table:

X-1. New England, 73, with one game remaining. Max points: 76.

X-2. Nashville, 52, with two games remaining. Max points: 58.

X-3. NYCFC, 50, with one game remaining. Max points: 53.

X-4. Philadelphia, 50, with two games remaining. Max points: 56.

5. Atlanta United, 47, with two games remaining. Max points: 53.

6. Orlando, 47, with two games remaining. Max points: 53.

7. Red Bulls, 46, with two games remaining. Max points: 48.

8. D.C. United, 44, with one game remaining. Max points: 47.

9. Columbus, 44, with one game remaining. Max points: 47.

10. Montreal, 43, with two games remaining. Max points: 49.

X-Clinched a playoff spot.

New England, the top seed, will get a bye in the first round of the playoffs.

Seeds 2-4 will get to host at least one playoff game.

Atlanta United manager Gonzalo Pineda and his players have said their goal is to host a game. The team is 9-3-5 at home and 3-6-6 on the road this season with the two games remaining.

The math is murky for Atlanta United if it wants to give itself a chance to clinch either the third or fourth seed.

To clinch either the third or fourth seed, or get into tiebreakers for those slots, Atlanta United must get at least four points from its next two games, which would get it to a minimum of 51 points. It likely prefers to win its next two games. Doing so would get it to 53 points.

Then, depending upon its results and, again, to give itself even a chance, Atlanta United needs NYCFC to either lose or drop points against Philadelphia in its finale. Doing so would mean it could finish with no more than 51 points.

It may also need Philadelphia to drop points in its next game against Cincinnati on Sunday. If it draws or loses against Cincinnati, the worst team in MLS, and against NYCFC, it can earn no more than 52 points. If Philadelphia beats Cincinnati, it would only need to draw with NYCFC to secure a home seed.

Atlanta United, assuming it takes at least four points, also needs Orlando to drop points in both of its final two games. It hosts Nashville on Sunday and plays at Montreal on Decision Day.

All of this would be moot had Atlanta United held on for two minutes against Toronto, or one more minute against NYCFC three games ago. It would have at least two more points and be in prime position to secure a home game.

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Atlanta United’s 2021 MLS schedule

April 17 Atlanta United 0, Orlando 0

April 24 Atlanta United 3, Chicago 1

May 1 New England 2, Atlanta United 1

May 9 Atlanta United 1, Inter Miami 1

May 15 Atlanta United 1, Montreal 0

May 23 Atlanta United 1, Seattle 1