SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Alex Anthopoulos is not the type to evaluate his offseason targets as “Plans A, B, C and D.”
Instead, the Braves’ president of baseball operations takes stock and says, “Hey, these are players that we like.”
“Realistically, you’re not going to get all of them,” Anthopoulos said at the Scottsdale resort housing these general managers’ meetings. “Some are in trades, some are in free agency. Let’s go down the path and see what we come up with.”
It seems he uses this approach for all areas of the roster, but the words seem particularly fitting for the starting rotation, where the Braves must add. They have certainly identified players they would like to sign or acquire, but the market plays into the equation. Who knows who might be available, and when?
Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman are widely viewed as the top starting pitching free agents. But prices will almost certainly be high because there is so much demand. There’s always demand for starting pitching, but it feels like a considerable amount of teams need multiple starters this winter.
“It’s so early,” Anthopoulos said. “We’re just getting started. I’m sure every club is doing it very similar. We have a list of guys we think fit for us, and so on. And those are the guys that we’ll have conversations with, whether that’s trade or free agency, and try to get deals done.”
The intriguing part will be this: Will the Braves feel comfortable signing an elite free-agent starter? If not, they might need to delve into the trade market for a significant addition.
Remember, though: Anthopoulos is the guy who came out of nowhere and found a way to trade for catcher Sean Murphy last winter. Anything is possible.
There is something that should help with all this – and really, something that will be a necessity to accomplish it all.
“Our payroll will be going up,” Anthopoulos said. “To what extent, I’m obviously not gonna say. But our payroll is expected to be above where we ended the season.”
FanGraphs estimated that the Braves ended 2023 with a cash payroll of $205 million. The outlet currently projects Atlanta to go into the 2024 season with a $207 million payroll, but that doesn’t include additions the Braves may make this winter.
In a conversation with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Wednesday morning, Braves Chairman Terry McGuirk said this: One could assume the Braves’ payroll would increase once again. And McGuirk, like everyone else in the game, expects the market for starting pitching to be crazy.
Does that mean the Braves might have to become creative with trades?
“First of all, I would probably never signal to you exactly what our plan would be so that it could get published,” McGurik said. “But two, it’s not always apparent to us what the plan will be, because we react to the marketplace. I think you just go with the old sayings: You can never have enough pitching. And if we can find more quality pitching and quality people to fit into our clubhouse, that’s what Alex is up to out there.”
It’s important to note that pitchers like Seth Lugo or Michael Wacha, who pitched for the Padres this year, could be more affordable options, especially when you consider the Braves’ special ability to maximize talent and potential. They don’t need to spend $100 million on a player to improve. There are multiple avenues.
“I view every offseason as the same,” Anthopoulos said. “You see what’s available in trade and free agency, you look through it, (evaluate) who you think could be the best fit for you, and explore both items – both trade and free agency – and see if you can get deals done. Obviously, you don’t get them all done. I don’t break it down any more than that.”
This much is clear: The Braves have Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton back in 2024. After undergoing shoulder surgery in October, Kyle Wright will not pitch next season. (Asked about a potential Fried extension, Anthopoulos said, in part: “We won’t get into any of our details and talks, and things like that.” He also added that every team wants to keep its best players.)
How much do they trust Bryce Elder to hold a rotation spot? How close are AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep to being able to do that?
Their answers to these questions, and more, will drive their actions. It seems they need to add starting pitching. It’s a necessity.
It might be risky to count on unproven arms – though Elder was an All-Star, Smith-Shawver showed flashes of brilliance and Waldrep dominated in the two months after the Braves selected him in the first round of the draft.
Of Smith-Shawver and Waldrep, Anthopoulos said: “In an ideal world, those guys are getting time in Gwinnett. But as you guys have seen, if we have needs and they’re the best guys, we’ll give them opportunities. Depending on how we build the rotation, we’ll see how that looks. They might come in and compete for a job, or maybe we have five guys that we’ve already announced as in the rotation to start – (and) whether there’s injuries or (because of) performance, maybe they’ll wait for their opportunity.”
During the opening monologue of his annual address on Wednesday, Scott Boras, the sport’s most well-known agent, said he’s had seven teams tell him they need two pitchers.
If that is the case, buckle up: This market for free-agent starting pitching might be wild, and the Braves will need to sort their way through it all to position themselves to win another World Series.
