Braves can prove how good they really are at Dodger Stadium this weekend
The Braves just lost a series for the first time this season. They are tied for the best record in baseball. They have MLB’s most potent offense and just two teams have a pitching staff with a better ERA.
And yet it’s easy to imagine Braves supporters feeling sour if their team gets pummeled during the three-game series at Dodger Stadium this weekend. It’s just one series in May, but it feels like more than that because it’s the Dodgers (23-14), who are MLB’s gold standard after winning two World Series titles in a row.
It goes back even further than that for the Braves (26-12). They didn’t break their championship drought until they finally exorcised their Chavez Ravine demons in 2021.
Now, the Braves are in L.A. to face their toughest test so far this season. They haven’t won a playoff series since the 2021 World Series and missed the postseason last year. They finally look like winners again, and now they can measure themselves against the mighty Dodgers.
The Braves have some factors in their favor this weekend — most of all, the scheduled starting pitchers.
Chris Sale (Friday) and Bryce Elder (Sunday) are the only teammates to rank among MLB’s top 10 in ERA for starters. Spencer Strider (Saturday) got lit up in his first start back from the injured list, but that was in Colorado’s pitchers’ graveyard.
The Braves won’t face Dodgers starters Shohei Ohtani (MLB-best 0.97 ERA), Tyler Glasnow (2.72 ERA) or Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.09 ERA). The Dodgers are set to send out (in order) Emmet Sheehan (5.23 ERA), Roki Sasaki (5.97 ERA) and converted long reliever Justin Wrobleski (0.56 ERA in four starts).
The Braves are healthier than they’ve been all season. Strider and catcher Chris Murphy are back. Braves All-Star Ronald Acuña Jr. is on the injured list, but so are three key Dodgers: multiposition marvel Mookie Betts, two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and closer Edwin Díaz.
The Braves also have been more consistent than the Dodgers. They lost two of three games in Seattle this week but are 20-7 since the last time they lost consecutive games. The Dodgers are 8-10 since starting 15-4 with a 2-3-1 series record during that span.
The Braves have the edge on paper. The Dodgers have the championship pedigree and the bats and bullpen to overcome ineffective starting pitching (fifth in runs per game, fourth in reliever WAR).
Also, recent history is working against the Braves. They are 7-20 at Dodger Stadium since the start of the 2018 season (postseason included). They got swept in three games there last season during an 0-7 start and never recovered.
I didn’t believe the Braves could win the World Series in 2021 until they won Games 1 and 2 of the National League Championship Series in L.A. Anything was possible after they finally conquered the Dodgers in two high-stakes games at the boisterous ballpark.
The Braves were eliminated from the 2018 Division Series after losing both games at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Braves in the 2020 NLCS in Texas before going on to win the World Series.
The two teams went in opposite directions after 2021.
The Braves suffered NLDS losses to Philadelphia in 2022 and ’23, took a 2-0 Wild Card series loss to the Padres in 2024 and missed the playoffs last year. The Dodgers won 100 games or more for three straight years from 2021-23 but didn’t make the World Series.
They became back-to-back World Series champions by supplementing their strong farm system and smart low-key moves with big spending. The Dodgers invested $350 million in payroll last year. They started this year with MLB’s second-highest payroll ($317 million) behind the Mets ($352 million) when salary deferrals are considered.
Four Dodgers players making $12 million or more this year are on the injured list, and they are still winning because the roster is so deep. The Braves have proved resilient, too, while depending on relatively cheap fill-ins.
Sometimes, it seems as if the Dodgers get bored with the regular season because they know they’ll be playing in October. They aren’t invincible, though. The Dodgers didn’t clinch the NL West until game 159 last season, then they beat the Blue Jays in extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series.
The Dodgers are MLB’s gold standard. The Braves are among the teams giving chase, and they’ve been the NL’s best team so far this season. They can confirm it this weekend against the champion Dodgers.
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