A prediction: Georgia Tech will hire Troy’s Scott Cross

At some point soon, Georgia Tech will complete its coaching search. The strong suspicion here is that it will result in the hire of Troy coach Scott Cross.

One, it makes sense. Two, his hire at Tech is the foregone conclusion of a number of people in the coaching industry whom I’ve communicated with in recent days.

Other coaches, such as Furman’s Bob Richey, George Mason’s Tony Skinn and Tennessee assistant Justin Gainey, were mentioned, but there was widespread confidence that Cross-to-Tech was going to happen.

And with Troy having lost Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to Nebraska, it could happen sooner than later.

Tech athletic director Ryan Alpert has had about a week and a half to vet candidates since Damon Stoudamire was dismissed March 8 at the end of his third season.

Why does it make sense?

With the Jackets having been in the ACC’s doldrums for the better part of two decades, Tech needs a builder. Cross has a proven record of establishing winning programs at two schools.

Texas-Arlington was his first head-coaching job, starting in the 2006-07 season. In the previous 15 seasons, UTA had losing seasons 10 times and never won more than 17 games. It had never been to the NCAA Tournament in its history.

By the end of his 12-season tenure in 2018, the Mavericks had earned their first NCAA berth, recorded three consecutive 20-win seasons and had an 82-46 record in conference play in his final seven seasons. (Improbably, Cross was fired, and time has proved the decision regrettable for UTA.)

A year later, in 2019, Cross was hired by Troy, which itself had had little history of success. In 26 seasons at the Division I level before his arrival, the Trojans recorded four 20-win seasons and two NCAA Tournament trips.

Under Cross’ leadership, Troy has won 20 games in each of the past five seasons (including this year) and won the Sun Belt Conference tournament title this season and last.

That’s building a record that’s difficult to dispute. With good reason, a number of coaches I spoke with hailed his coaching acumen, one of them calling him elite.

Another noteworthy element of Cross’ candidacy is that Tech executive deputy athletic director Brent Jones came to Tech this past August from Troy. Jones had been AD at Troy since 2019, getting promoted to the job shortly after Cross’ hire there.

A hole in his bio is coaching experience at the power-conference level. In his coaching career, the 51-year-old Cross has had one season at that level, as an assistant at TCU in his year between UTA and Troy.

Proponents would likely point to the successes of two coaches at schools that Tech supporters would consider peer institutions: Vanderbilt’s Mark Byington and Virginia’s Ryan Odom.

Both have had highly successful starts with their respective programs. Byington has led Vanderbilt to back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances after the Commodores had failed to make it in the previous seven seasons.

In Odom’s first year, the 29-win Cavaliers (going into their NCAA first-round game Friday) have won 14 more games in Odom’s first year than they did a year ago.

While both had some experience at the power-conference level as assistant coaches, their head-coaching paths to their current jobs sound similar to Cross’.

Byington: Georgia Southern and James Madison.

Odom: Charlotte, Maryland-Baltimore County, Utah State and Virginia Commonwealth.

Cross would be trying to buck considerable history at Tech. The past three coaches to lead the Jackets — Brian Gregory, Josh Pastner and Stoudamire — all were fired with losing records. Tech has one NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010.

But Cross would be hired in no small part because he has built winning programs from similar circumstances.