New Falcons brass should convince Blank that Penix isn’t yet ‘franchise’ QB

Falcons franchise owner Arthur Blank will hire a president of football soon. That executive will lead the search for successors to general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris.

The first big decision for the new hires should be to contradict Blank’s opinion about the most important position on the team.

Blank met with media members Thursday and rightly noted, “It’s hard to win in the NFL without a franchise quarterback.” Later, Blank was asked to clarify if he believes Michael Penix Jr. is the franchise quarterback for his franchise.

Penix has been an inconsistent performer over 12 career starts. He had surgery to repair a torn ACL in his left knee in November and had the ACL in the other knee repaired twice before making it to the NFL.

Surely, Blank would say it’s too early to say, so he’ll leave the final evaluation to his top football people.

Instead, Blank said:

“I do think Michael is our franchise quarterback. The injury he sustained is on his other knee. The surgeon felt 1,000% secure in the medical procedure they went through. They really felt his knee was going to be even better than it was before.

“He’s on a successful rehab program. He’s back in Atlanta. He’s committed mentally, physically. He feels good. So, yes, we would certainly see that (he’s the franchise quarterback).”

Right now, the “we” for the Falcons does not include a president of football, general manager or head coach. Blank said the GM and coach would “have the final say in their areas of their responsibilities, with the input and guidance of the president of football.”

Usually, acquiring players is the general manager’s job. What if the new Falcons GM believes the team should add a quarterback who can be real competition for Penix?

Normally, the coach decides the roles of players on the roster. What if the new Falcons coach thinks Penix should be the backup once he’s healthy?

The Falcons have never had a president of football since Blank purchased the team in 2002. What if, after the president’s input and guidance, the three top football people conclude they can’t count on Penix leading the Falcons to the playoffs in 2026?

That would put the team’s football brain trust in the awkward position of contradicting the owner soon after they arrive in the building. Of course, it’s possible they agree with Blank about being all-in on Penix.

That would be a mistake. Blank noted the quarterback doesn’t necessarily have to be great, but “really good and solid.” I don’t think Penix has reached that level yet.

The Falcons are 4-8 with Penix as the starter. They are 4-7 if you don’t include the game he didn’t finish because of injury (the Falcons led the Panthers 21-16 in the third quarter when Penix left the game).

Team record can be a misleading measure of a quarterback. Lots of variables that contribute to winning and losing are outside the QB’s control. But, in this case, I think the QB record is an imperfect but fairly accurate measure of Penix’s performance.

Pro Football Focus ranked Penix 23rd among starters before this season. He was included in the tier titled: “Young players with a wide range of potential outcomes.” I’d say Penix is in that category still, especially after the ACL surgery.

He doesn’t lack a strong supporting cast. The Falcons have one of the best skill position groups around: running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts.

This season, Penix ranked 23rd in expected points added (play-by-play impact) among starters who played at least 300 snaps. He ranked 20th in total QBR among quarterbacks who started eight games or more.

Franchise quarterbacks are expected to lift the level of their team’s offense. The Falcons have scored an average of 23 points in the 11 games that Penix started and finished. Half the teams in the NFL averaged more points this season.

The numbers suggest that Penix so far has been a middling NFL quarterback, not a franchise quarterback or even “really good and solid.” The eye test confirms this.

Penix’s passing accuracy has been inconsistent. He’s been reluctant to run. And now he’s recovering from the third major knee surgery of his career. Morris said during the season that the injury would alter the team’s offseason QB plans.

The Falcons obviously shouldn’t give up on Penix. He’s got a lot of talent and potential. Penix can make big-time throws. He doesn’t often put the ball in danger. He’s good at scrambling for yards once he decides to run.

The Falcons also shouldn’t declare Penix to be the franchise quarterback. There still are far too many question marks about his performance to reach that conclusion. We’ll get more answers once Penix is back on the field next season.

Blank apparently has seen enough from Penix to decide he’s the franchise quarterback. Maybe his opinion can be changed. Blank said he’s not involved in the day-to-day operations of football and shouldn’t be.

“Because I have authority doesn’t mean I have the knowledge,” Blank said. “So, we can never confuse the two. If you get a leader who’s in that position and they get confused, they can make some bad decisions. I’ll never be confused about that.

“We wanted someone else to have input and guidance and hold the accountability and work closely with the head coach and general manager.”