Why this year probably is Dale Murphy’s best shot to get into the Hall of Fame

As his case is up for consideration by the Baseball Hall of Fame’s contemporary era committee this weekend, Braves legend Dale Murphy likely has the best chance he’ll ever of getting inducted.

The reason Braves fans could be elated when the announcement is made Sunday evening doesn’t have much to do with MVP awards or home runs.

It’s the company on the ballot, namely Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, and the composition of the committee that will vote on him.

Before we go further, you should know that this column is about probability and the Hall’s influence on who gets inducted.

It won’t include gauzy memories of a gifted and beloved slugger in a powder-blue uniform. There has been a heart-tugging campaign on his behalf that may help not as much as the aforementioned factors.

Simply put, Murphy’s chances appear better than they have in the 15 unsuccessful years he was on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballot or in the three previous times he was considered by a veterans committee.

Let’s start with the math. (Sorry.) For induction, candidates need 12 votes from the 16-member committee, consisting of Hall of Famers, MLB executives, media members and a historian. Second, committee members can vote for up to three former players (though they don’t have to vote for any).

So there’s a scarcity of votes in the process. Thus, it helps Murphy if there are fewer candidates that committee members might consider over him.

And, to Murphy’s benefit, more than any of his three previous times that he was considered by a committee or when he was on the BBWAA ballot, that is the case this year.

First, the first two times he was considered by a committee (for the 2018 and ’22 classes), the ballot had 10 candidates. This one has (and the 2023 class vote had) eight. That’s already a win.

Second, as was the case in December 2022, Bonds and Clemens, both alleged PED users, are on the ballot, and the committee is generally stacked with members with anti-steroid stances.

To explain why requires going down a rabbit hole. Essentially, the committees are appointed by the Hall of Fame, which means that the Hall has an influence on who gets inducted. And if the Hall doesn’t want steroid-linked players inducted, it can appoint committee members who share that viewpoint, which in the past it has.

When Bonds, Clemens and known steroids user Rafael Palmeiro were up for consideration by the contemporary era committee for the class of 2023, they each received fewer than six votes. Murphy, also on the ballot, received six. (Former Brave Fred McGriff was the only candidate chosen, in a unanimous vote.)

It’s hardly an unpopular position, nor is it presumably difficult to find Hall of Famers who agree with that stance. Regardless, it significantly lowers the likelihood that Bonds and Clemens will have much support by the contemporary era committee.

The same goes for former Braves slugger Gary Sheffield, who also has otherwise surefire induction-worthy numbers but admitted taking a steroid cream. (He denied knowing it contained performance-enhancing drugs.)

So that’s potentially three players out of eight who don’t pose much of a threat to take votes away from Murphy.

So, there’s a chance

As for the other four — Don Mattingly, Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent and the late Fernando Valenzuela — it’s not as imposing a group as Murphy has shared ballots with previously.

For instance, for the 2018 vote, Murphy was behind not just the two players inducted on the 10-player ballot — Jack Morris and Alan Trammell — but two more individuals who were inducted in the 2020 vote (again over Murphy): Ted Simmons and union leader Marvin Miller.

The five (including Murphy) all have cases to make. Mattingly and Murphy are similar in that they held multiseason peaks in which they were the best or close to the best player in the game over that range.

Delgado had 10 consecutive 30-homer seasons. Kent won an MVP and hit 351 of his 377 home runs as a second baseman, the most at that position. Valenzuela was one of the top pitchers in the game for a six-year stretch and his Mexican heritage made a massive impact on the game’s popularity.

But you can make the easy argument that Mattingly and Murphy are the two strongest choices. Braves fans can recite Murphy’s case by heart. He is one of only 30 players in the game’s history to win two MVP awards, had the second-most home runs and RBI of any player in the 1980s and was an elite defender at a premium position.

For whatever it’s worth, the seven Hall of Famers on the committee — Ferguson Jenkins, Jim Kaat, Juan Marichal, Tony Pérez, Ozzie Smith, Alan Trammell and Robin Yount — were largely players whose greatness lay in their long-term productivity, which may color how they view Murphy’s brilliant peak and subsequent drop-off.