Why the Falcons won’t be much better in 2026

FLOWERY BRANCH — The NFL is the ultimate wait-until-next-year sports league. The Falcons have been waiting for eight years.

Make it nine years with no playoffs in 2026 for the Falcons. I don’t see how they’ll be much better next year.

The quarterback will be unproven next season, as he was this year, except Michael Penix Jr. will be returning from ACL surgery. The defense has declined from good to mediocre and could lose some top performers in free agency after the season. The Falcons (4-9) will have limited resources to improve the roster.

They can save $35 million in cap space by releasing Kirk Cousins, but they’ll probably have to use much of it to re-sign the free agents they want to keep. The Falcons don’t own their first-round pick because they traded it to move up in this year’s draft. There probably will be about 40 players off the board before they pick.

The Falcons have four games left this season to create some bright spots for next year. Coach Raheem Morris said the rest of the season will be about “recapturing the moment and finding out what you could have been and what you should be doing, and then actually finding some other people.”

Winning is always better than losing, even if the Falcons are going nowhere. One bright spot for this season is the performance of several young players on defense. The Falcons should find out if there are others who could play bigger roles next season. They need all the help they can get.

It’s possible that Falcons franchise owner Arthur Blank will replace Morris. If so, then the new coach will have to deal with a lot of the same challenges as the old one. That list is topped by the lack of clarity at quarterback.

Penix has made 12 starts during his two pro seasons. He was better this year than last but performed inconsistently. Penix ranked 15th among NFL starters in Total QBR and 20th in Expected Points Added (play-by-play efficiency). Penix’s big-time throws were offset by his lack of accuracy on others.

There’s also the matter of Penix’s reluctance to run. Falcons coaches encouraged Penix to scramble for yards more often this season because he was effective when he did it. Per Sumer Sports, Penix ranked 10th in rushing EPA among starters (just behind Lamar Jackson) but just 20th in scramble rate. Will Penix run more after his third ACL surgery?

The Falcons will have a good skill-position group again in 2026, headlined by running back Bijan Robinson. His production has been stymied by a drop-off in run blocking (25th in ESPN’s win rate). Some of that can be attributed to the season-ending leg injury suffered by right tackle Kaleb McGary in August.

McGary will be 31 next season. Left tackle Jake Matthews has played admirably on a bad ankle this season, but he’ll be 34 next year. The Falcons will have to get more out of their aging offensive line in 2026.

The early-season improvements for the Falcons’ defense turned out to be unsustainable. The Falcons rank 20th in points allowed and 18th in EPA this season. Last season, they were 23rd in points allowed and 18th in EPA. A strong finish by the defense would create optimism for 2026.

Morris overhauled the defense this year by firing coordinator Jimmy Lake and hiring Jeff Ulbrich. General manager Terry Fontenot selected four defensive prospects in the draft, including first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. The most tangible outcome of those changes is a dramatically better pass rush.

The Falcons improved from 31st in sacks per pass attempt to third so far this season. They were ranked 25th in quarterback pressure percentage last season and are sixth so far this season, according to Pro Football Reference.

To become a truly good defense, the Falcons will have to stop relying so much on blitzing to generate an effective pass rush. Per Pro Football Reference, the Falcons have sent extra defenders at quarterbacks at a higher rate than every team except the Vikings.

Blitzing leaves vulnerabilities in coverage (the Falcons need upgrades at cornerback). Ulbrich said he didn’t use blitzes much in his previous years as a coordinator. He said he’s done it this year to generate pressure as young players learn the “art” of rushing the passer, create mismatches and loosen the pass protection with the threat of extra rushers.

“I think when this is all said and done, and we are absolutely cooking, and it’s where we want it to be, we’ll have less (blitzing),” Ulbrich said. “But I think it’s been good for us.”

It’s plausible that the Falcons’ young defenders will continue to improve next season. But they’ll have a limited amount of cap space to sign veteran defenders with competing needs to use it. The priorities should be to re-sign linebacker Kaden Elliss and defensive end David Onyemata, but the Falcons also need to sign a quarterback who can be serviceable until Penix returns.

The Falcons are due for some better luck in 2026. They are 1-5 this season in games settled by one-score margins. That statistic tends to fluctuate from year to year, so maybe the Falcons will fare better in close games next season.

The injury luck might improve, too. Perhaps Penix will come back early in the 9-to-12-month recovery time frame for ACL injuries and blossom into a top-line starter. The successful return of McGary and better health for No. 1 wide receiver Drake London would be a big boost.

Then there’s the continuously sorry state of the NFC South. The Buccaneers (7-6) are nothing special. The Panthers (7-6) have leapfrogged the Falcons, but that’s smoke and mirrors. The Saints (3-10) are in shambles.

Playing in a bad division hasn’t helped the Falcons become a playoff team. I don’t see things being much different for them in 2026. I could be wrong about that, but it’s been nearly a decade since the Falcons beat expectations.