Weekend Predictions: Georgia and Kennesaw State playing for titles

Weekend Predictions was a loser last time out. I’ve still had winning records on picks against the spread in six of the past eight weeks. Admittedly, the good weeks weren’t as good as the bad weeks were bad, but I’m still grinding my way to a better finish than the Falcons.

My bar is low, and I make no apologies for that.

SEC championship game: No. 3 Georgia (-2½) vs. No. 9 Alabama (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

Ex-Georgia coach Mark Richt won three of five against Alabama. Successor Kirby Smart is 1-7 against the Crimson Tide. Richt won one game each against Dennis Franchione and Mike Shula, and beat Nick Saban before he got Bama rolling. Smart now is the best college football coach, so it’s weird he’s 0-2 versus the Tide since Saban left, while Kalen DeBoer has six losses against teams that aren’t Georgia.

There was some flukiness about Alabama’s win at Sanford Stadium in September. The Bulldogs produced several explosive plays, but were hurt by bad turnover luck and strange play calls. For the rematch, Alabama’s inconsistent offense could be missing tight end Josh Cuevas (foot) and running back Jam Miller (leg). Georgia’s defense will feast. The Bulldogs will cover the spread.

Conference USA: Kennesaw State (-2½) at Jacksonville State

Kennesaw State football’s social media accounts boast the program is the “Best Startup in College (Football) History.” That’s a clever way of framing the team’s rapid ascension during its second year at the FBS level, but half of business startups fail within five years. First-year coach Jerry Mack is trying to build a blue-chip program.

The Owls lost 35-26 at Jacksonville State on Nov. 15, with Amari Odom throwing three interceptions. In two games since then, Odom has 627 yards passing on 57 attempts with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. Odom beat Missouri State and Liberty with late TD passes. I’m riding the hot quarterback. KSU covers.

Seahawks (-7) at Falcons

The Falcons (4-8) were supposed to challenge the Buccaneers (7-5) for the NFC South title this season. Instead, they’ve been leapfrogged by the Panthers (7-6). If Carolina makes the playoffs (maybe) and the Falcons don’t (surely), it will leave the Falcons with the longest playoff drought in the NFC. The Jets are headed to their 15th consecutive year with no playoffs, but they just beat the Falcons despite their best efforts to give away the game.

Per the OddsShark database, the Falcons are underdogs of at least seven points for the first time since Dec. 5, 2021. The Buccaneers, favored by 11 points, beat Arthur Smith’s Falcons 30-17 on that day. It was a rebuilding year for the Falcons after the Dan Quinn era ended with lots of losing and the salary cap in shambles. The Falcons are still losers, but at least the cap sheet looks OK. They won’t beat the Seahawks, but they’ll cover.

Other college games of interest

Big Ten: No. 2 Indiana (+4) vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Indianapolis)

Ohio State’s headset communications were down at Michigan last weekend, but coach Ryan Day told reporters the Buckeyes had a plan for that. Maybe Raheem Morris should get some pointers from Day. The Falcons fell apart when their headsets malfunctioned at Carolina. The Hoosiers have blown out the Big Ten’s lesser teams and won tough games at Oregon and Penn State. I like them as the underdog.

Big 12: No. 11 BYU (+12½) vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Arlington, Texas)

Texas Tech gave coach Joey McGuire a $149 million contract extension this week. Said AD Kirby Hocutt: “Our success this season is not a one-year plan.” There’s only one season of proof that McGuire can compete for a league title. He was 16-11 in the Big 12 during his first three seasons. File this away: McGuire will be owed at least 70% of the remaining value of his new contract if he’s fired without cause. I’m taking BYU with the points.

ACC: Duke (+4) vs. No. 17 Virginia (Charlotte)

The rest of the ACC has a reason to cheer against Duke — in addition to the usual justification that it’s Duke. The CFP committee will select the five highest ranked conference champions. If Duke is the ACC champion, the American and Sun Belt champs could take two of the auto bid slots behind the champions of the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12. That would be a funny outcome, but I’m picking the Cavaliers to cover the spread.

American: No. 24 North Texas (-2½) at No. 20 Tulane

This game could be part of the ACC’s nightmare scenario. Both teams are included in the current CFP rankings, while Duke is not. The winner will have a victory over a ranked team. That will match Duke should the Blue Devils beat Virginia. Then there’s this: Tulane beat Duke 34-27 in September. North Texas is my pick. Those wishing to see ACC commissioner Jim Phillips plead for his Power Four league to get a bid over a Group of Five team should hope I’m wrong.

Sun Belt: Troy (+23½) at No. 25 James Madison

Before Kennesaw State’s successful college football startup, there was James Madison. The Dukes won the Sun Belt in 2023, their second season in the league. Coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. Successor Bob Chesney went 4-4 in the league last season. Now he’s playing for the conference championship with a shot at a CFP bid. The Dukes have incentive to run up the score, but I like Troy to cover.

Other NFL games of interest

Saints (+8½) at Buccaneers

Cameron Jordan plays for the hated Saints, but he and Georgia football fans have something in common: a strong dislike of Todd Grantham. Jordan told ESPN that ex-Bulldogs coordinator Grantham was the “worst D-line coach of his life.” Grantham eventually was demoted. This year he was the coordinator at Oklahoma State, which had one of the worst defenses in FBS. The Saints are still a mess. The Bucs are my pick.

Bears (+6½) at Packers

When the Bears hired ex-Lions assistant Ben Johnson as head coach in January, he was asked why he wanted to stay in the NFC North: “To be quite frank with you, I kind of enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year.” That was some good shade, and now Chicago (9-3) leads Green Bay (8-3-1) in the division. LaFleur didn’t take the bait when asked this week if he’d given much thought to Johnson’s comments. That’s no fun. Give me the Bears and the points.

Rams (-7½) at Cardinals

After the Rams lost 31-28 at Carolina on Sunday, coach Sean McVay told media members: “We’ve dealt with adversity before. We’ll deal with it again.” The end of a six-game losing streak counts as adversity for the Rams. The Falcons haven’t won as many as six consecutive games during a season since winning eight in a row in 2010. The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS as home ‘dogs. I like them to cover in this one.