Projecting the CFP: Alabama drops, at-large teams scramble

There’s not likely to be a change at the very top of the College Football Playoff rankings this week, but the race is on for at-large positions and the ACC and Group of Five allocated spots in the 12-team field

The top three-ranked teams – undefeated Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M – all won their games and figure to maintain the top three spots.

The shuffling begins after that, with No. 4 Alabama’s 23-21 fall at home to No. 11 Oklahoma leaving the door open for No. 5 Georgia to move up a spot after the Bulldogs dominated No. 10 Texas, 35-10.

The Sooners’ 23-21 win over the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa should move Oklahoma up into the top 10 of the CFP rankings, which looks to be the cut-off for at-large teams. The ACC champ and highest-ranked Group of Five conference champ – both guaranteed spots in the field -- figure to get the final two slots with No. 11 and No. 12 seeds.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey expressed confidence his league’s quality depth would play out with multiple CFP field bids.

“We want to earn our opportunities,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said in a gathering with media in the Sanford Stadium press box prior to the Texas at Georgia game on Saturday night in Athens.

“I think we’ve established ourselves in both non-conference play and what happens week to week on the football field in a league with great strength.”

The ACC bid remains very much up for grabs with four teams still with only one conference loss vying for a spot in the league’s championship game:

• No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1, 6-1 ACC)

• No. 19 Virginia (9-2, 6-1)

• No. 22 Pitt (7-3, 5-1)

• SMU (7-3, 5-1).

Miami, the ACC’s highest-ranked team in the CFP standings last week, at No. 15, scored a dominant 41-7 win over North Carolina State to maintain its slim playoff hopes.

The Group of Five race is much more complex, as the CFP selection committee looks to pick the best champion from the five non-Power 4 conferences.

American Athletic Conference (AAC)-member South Florida was the highest-ranked Group of Five team last week, but the Bulls fell on the road at Navy, 41-38, and appear to be on the outside of the CFP race looking in with three losses.

Sun Belt Conference leader James Madison, at 9-1, could find itself in what amounts to a beauty contest with AAC leaders North Texas (9-1), Tulane (8-2) and Navy (8-2).

Here’s a look at how the seedings and projected matchups could look when the CFP rankings are released on Tuesday night:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State

No. 2 Indiana

No. 3 Texas A&M

No. 4 Georgia

First-round games

No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 James Madison

No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech

No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Alabama

No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Oklahoma

How the CFP Top 25 fared

(with notable other results below)

1 Ohio State (10-0)

Defeated UCLA, 48-10

2 Indiana (11-0)

Defeated Wisconsin, 31-7

3 Texas A&M (10-0)

Defeated South Carolina, 31-30

4 Alabama (8-2)

Lost to No. 11 Oklahoma, 23-21

5. Georgia (9-1)

Defeated No. 10 Texas, 35-10

6. Texas Tech (10-1)

Defeated UCF, 48-9

7. Ole Miss (10-1)

Defeated Florida, 34-24

8. Oregon (9-1)

Defeated Minnesota, 42-13

9. Notre Dame (8-2)

Won at Pitt, 37-15

10. Texas (7-3)

Lost at No. 5 Georgia, 35-10

11. Oklahoma (8-2)

Won at No. 4 Alabama, 23-21

12. BYU (9-1)

Defeated TCU, 44-13

13. Utah (8-2)

Won at Baylor, 55-28

14. Vanderbilt (8-2)

Did not play

15. Miami (8-2)

Defeated North Carolina State, 41-7

16. Georgia Tech (9-1)

Won at Boston College, 36-34

17. USC (8-2)