Projecting college playoff field: First rankings will bring controversy
The College Football Playoff selection committee figures to have quite a task on its hands Nov. 4 when it determines and releases the first set of rankings.
If things stay true to form, as they did Saturday with no upset losses among the top 11 ranked teams in the AP Top 25 poll, there will be plenty of items up for discussion.
Regardless of how the initial rankings come out, there’s sure to be backlash and controversy, with college football displaying more parity than ever.
Not much got sorted out Saturday, as the most significant CFP-related game came when unranked Memphis scored a 34-31 win over No. 18 South Florida. The result jumbles the top of the American Conference standings in what figures to be a race for Group of Five supremacy.
The top-ranked team among the Group of Five conference champions is automatically awarded a place in the 12-team playoff field.
The Tigers’ win makes them 7-1 and a top contender for that CFP spot along with fellow American Conference members Navy (7-0) and Tulane (6-1).
At the top of the Top 25 rankings there doesn’t figure to be much, if any, movement after Saturday’s games.
Ohio State was idle and could maintain its No. 1 ranking, but No. 2 Indiana made up ground with a dominant 56-6 win over UCLA. No. 3 Texas A&M scored more than 40 points in a road game for the third time this season with an eye-opening 49-25 victory over No. 20 LSU in Death Valley.
It’s not a stretch to project the Hoosiers and Buckeyes to win out and meet in the Big Ten championship game, with Indiana’s impressive road win at No. 6 Oregon earlier this season lifting them into a favored status.
If the Aggies and Alabama (7-1) continue to win out in the SEC, they likely would meet in the conference’s title game, with Texas A&M playing the role of heavy. This is especially true after the No. 4 Crimson Tide needed to rally in the fourth quarter to beat South Carolina on the road Saturday, 29-22.
Coach Kirby Smart’s No. 5-ranked Georgia team has plenty of business left to take care of, starting Saturday in its annual neutral-site game with Florida in Jacksonville, Florida.
The Bulldogs, who would make the 12-team field by winning out even if they don’t play in the SEC championship game, were major benefactors in the strength of schedule department as No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 17 Tennessee and Auburn — three SEC teams they’ve beaten — all scored victories Saturday.
Transitive properties will indeed factor in for the CFP committee, which has a range of metrics at its disposal to evaluate the teams, including won-loss record, schedule strength and offensive, defensive and game control ratings.
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin suggests it would be worth it to consider what oddsmakers in Las Vegas think about the teams jockeying for position in the playoff rankings.
“What would Vegas do? They’re the best at what they do by far. Way better than any committee,” Kiffin said on the SEC coaches teleconference Wednesday. “When you look at teams, and you’re (considering) this team or that team and comparing them … if it was a neutral game, what would Vegas make the spread? That should tell you who the better team is.”
The Rebels are clearly the better team in their remaining regular-season matchups, as they will be favorites to win out againstf South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State.
Further, to Kiffin’s point on rankings, there will be plenty to be considered with college football upstarts Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt elbowing their way into championship consideration with wins as top-10 teams Saturday.
The No. 7 Yellow Jackets, 8-0 for the first time since 1966, took care of business against upset-minded Syracuse, 41-16.
With remaining games at North Carolina State, at Boston College and against Pitt leading into a showdown with No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 28, Tech looks even stronger as the top-ranked team in the ACC after No. 9 Miami struggled in the first half before pulling away for a 42-7 home win over hapless Stanford.
The Commodores (7-1), off to their best start since 1941, got their first win as a top-10 team since 1947 by knocking off No. 15 Missouri (17-10) to get their program-record third win over an AP-ranked opponent this season.
Vanderbilt has a pivotal matchup at No. 22 Texas on Saturday that might ultimately determine both teams’ College Football Playoff status.
The Commodores and Longhorns might be able to sustain another loss and still make the field, but Vanderbilt also has a road game at No. 17 Tennessee remaining, while Texas caps its regular-season schedule at home against No. 3 Texas A&M.
Here’s one view of how the 12-team playoff field projects to look after the regular season and the league championship games play out:
CFP First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 3 Ohio State
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
Dec. 19 and 20 on campus
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Ole Miss
Quarterfinals games
Played at the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Notre Dame/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Georgia Tech winner vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
No. 9 Miami/No. 8 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
About the Author
Mike is in his eighth season covering SEC and Georgia athletics for AJC-DawgNation and has 30 years of collegiate sports multimedia experience, 25 of them in the SEC including beat writer stops at Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee and now Georgia. Mike was named the National FWAA Beat Writer of the Year in January, 2018.
